Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Looking ahead at Colorado's 2010 elections.

There will be two big elections in Colorado in 2010, the Governor's Race and the battle for Senator Ken Salazar's Senate Seat.

Governor Bill Ritter was elected in 2006 with a decisive margin over Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez. 2006 was a Democratic year and we certainly don't feel that Ritter is a shoe-in but a heavy favorite. We are placing the early odds of Ritter winning reelection at 3-1.

Democratic Senator Ken Salazar won victory over Peter Coors in 2004. While President Bush and the Republican's in general did well in 2004, Colorado moved decisively to the left, with the Democrats picking up the State House, State Senate and this Senate Seat. Salazar ran as a moderate, during his earlier service as Attorney General he didn't build up a voting record, now he does. While Salazar hasn't made it to some early top ten Senate lists thus far, we feel that the Democrats would be foolish to take this race for granted. Early odds 3-2.

All three of the state-wide offices are also up for election. The Democrats are about to have a 2-1 margin.

Attorney General: Republican John Suthers currently holds this post. Even if he doesn't run for reelection we don't favor any Democrat. Early odds 3-2.

State Treasurer: Democrat Cary Kennedy won this post in the wave of 2004. The political prognosticoti say that she is popular, the average voter has no idea who she is. 1-1.

Secretary of State: Republican Mike Coffman is leaving the SOS job in order to move over to the US House (he will represent the 6th CD). We are currently waiting for his Democratic replacement. 1-1.

Here is a look at the Congressional Districts:

CD 1 (Denver): Safe Democrat
CD 2 (Boulder): Safe Democrat
CD 3 (West Slope): Likely Democrat
CD 4 (Eastern Plains): Toss Up. Democrat Markey will be making her freshman defense of this GOP leaning district. This will be one of the hottest races in the nation.
CD 5 (Colorado Springs): Safe Republican.
CD 6 (Southern Denver Suburbs) Safe Republican.
CD 7 (Northern Denver Suburbs) Likely Democrat.

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Final Projections 2008:

President: Obama 364 McCain 174 Obama is our projected winner.
Senate: Democrats 59 Republicans 41 Democrats pick up eight seats.
House: Democrats 255-265 Republicans 180-170. Democratic pickup of 20-30 seats.

Colorado:
Senate: Udall Democratic Pickup
House: CO-1 D, CO-2 D, CO-3 D, CO-4 Toss up, CO-5 R, CO-6 R, CO-7 D

State Senate: Democrats 19 Republicans 16. Republicans pickup SD 19 (Westminster and Arvada).
State House: 37 Democrats, 26 Republicans and 2 Toss ups.

Monday, November 03, 2008

Final Colorado State Senate Projection 2008.


Districts without elections: 16 divided R-8 D-8

Districts with elections: 19 current makeup R-7 D-12

Projected make up: R-16 D-19

District Breakdown:

Republican Held:

SD-4: Safe Republican District. Mark Sheffel (R) is our projected winner.

SD-8: Competitive District. Al White (R) vs. Ken Brenner (D). White had 10K on hand from the last report. Brenner had 12K cash on hand. White out spent and out raised Brenner so we are leaning towards White. Republican Hold.

SD-10: Safe Republican District. Bill Cadman (R) is our projected winner.

SD-12: Safe Republican District. Keith King (R) is our projected winner.

SD-23: Competitive District. Shawn Mitchell (R) vs. Joe Whitcomb (D). Mitchell had 49K cash on hand from the last report. Whitcomb had 4K cash on hand. Mitchell outspent Whitcomb so we are leaning towards Mitchell. Republican hold.

SD-26: Competitive District. Lauri Clapp (R) vs. Linda Newell (D). Clapp had 25K cash on hand. Newell looks to have been outspent. Republican hold.

SD-27: Safe Republican. Nancy Spence (R) is our projected winner.

We project that the Republican's will lose 0 state senate seats. Any surprise will have to occur in either district 8, 23 or 26. It is a big if however, no State Senate candidate has won without outspending their competitor in competitive districts. In non-competitive districts no amount of spending can overcome the statistical power of partisan make up.

Democrat Held Districts:

SD-14: Competitive District. We project Bob Bacon (D) will easily hold his seat.

SD-16: Highly Competitive District. Dan Gibbs (D) vs. Don Ytterburg (R). Gibbs had 10K cash on hand from the last report. Ytterberg had about 10K on hand also. However, it looks like he was simply outspent. Look for this district to remain in Democratic hands.

SD-17: Safe Democrat. We project Shaffer will easily hold his seat.

SD-18: Safe Democrat. We project Rollie Heath will win. Unopposed.

SD-19: Highly Competitive District. Open Seat. Evie Hadak (D) vs. Libby Szabo (R). Cash on hand: Hadak 20K Szabo 35K cash on hand. Szabo appears to have outspent Hadak, which will earn her this seat. Republican pickup.

SD-21: Safe Democrat. We project Betty Boyd (D) will win re-election.

SD-25: Safe Democrat. Mary Hodge (D), easy win.

SD-28, 29, 31, 33 and 35, all safe Democratic seats.

Overall we see the Democrats defending 11 of their 12 seats, losing only SD-19. It will take some major coat-tails for our prediction to be off.

Colorado State House Final Projection 2008.

House Districts 1-9 City and County of Denver. All Safe Democrat.

House Districts 10-13 Boulder, Gilpin and Clear Creek Counties. All Safe Democrat.

House Districts 14-21 El Paso and Fremont Counties. 6 Safe Republican 1 Republican Favored 1 Democrat Favored.

House Districts 22-29 Jefferson County. 1 Safe Republican, 2 Republican Favored, 1 Toss Up, 2 Leans Democrat, 2 Democrat Favored.

House Districts 30-35 Broomfield and Adams Counties. 5 Democrat, 1 Toss Up.

House Districts 36-42 Arapahoe and Elbert Counties. 3 Safe Republican (Including 1 pick up), 2 Safe Democrat, 1 Democrat Favored, 1 Leans Democrat.

House Districts 43-45 Douglas and Teller Counties. All Safe Republican.

House Districts 46 and 47 Pueblo. Safe Democrat.

House Districts 48-52 North Central Colorado. 48, 49, 51 Safe Republican, 52 Leans Democrat, 50, 53 Safe Democrat.

House Districts 54-62 Mountains and West Slope. 54, 57 and 60 Safe Republican. 58 and 59 Lean Republican. 55 Leans Democrat. 56, 61 and 62 Safe Democrat.

House Districts 63-65 East Plains. 63 and 65 Safe Republican. 64 Safe Democrat.

Sunday, November 02, 2008

Final US Senate Projection.


Here is our final US Senate Projection for the 2008 cycle. We are projecting a Democratic gain of 8 seats.

Here are the states that the Democrats should pick up, listed from most likely to least likely.

Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Alaska, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oregon and Minnesota.

Final Projection: 2008 US Senate 59 Democrats, 41 Republicans (including both independents as Democrats).

South Projection.

Overall ten states, net senate change Democrat +1, net house change Republican +2.

North Carolina: Senate Democrat Pick Up, House NC-8 Toss Up.
South Carolina: No Change.
Georgia: GA-8 Toss Up.
Florida: House FL-8 GOP Hold, FL-16 GOP Pick Up, FL-21 GOP Hold, FL-24 Toss Up, FL-25 GOP Hold.
Alabama: House AL-2 GOP Hold, AL-5 Toss Up.
Tennessee: No Change.
Mississippi: House MS-1 Toss Up.
Arkansas: No Change.
Louisiana: House LA-6 Toss Up.
Texas: House TX-22 GOP Pick Up.

Mid Atlantic and Border States.

Overall six states, net senate change Democrat +1, net house change Democrat +1.

New Jersey: House NJ-3 Toss Up, NJ-7 Toss Up.
Delaware: No Change.
Maryland: No Change.
Virginia: Senate Democrat Pick Up, House VA-11 Democrat Pick Up.
West Virginia: No Change.
Kentucky: No Change.

New England Projection.

Overall six states, net senate change Democrat +1, net house change 0.

Maine: No Change.
Vermont: No Change.
New Hampshire: Senate Democrat Pick Up, House NH-1 Toss Up.
Massachusetts: No Change.
Rhode Island: No Change.
Connecticut: House CT-4 Toss Up.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Great Lakes Projection.

Overall eight states, net senate change 0, net house change Democrat +4.

Minnesota: Senate Republican Hold, House MN-3 Toss UP, MN-6 Toss Up.
Wisconsin: House WI-8 Toss Up.
Michigan: House MI-7 Toss Up, MI-9 Toss Up.
Illinois: House IL-10 Toss Up, IL-11 Democrat Pick Up.
Indiana: House IN-3 Toss Up.
Ohio: House OH-1 Toss Up, OH-2 Republican Hold, OH-15 Democrat Pick Up, OH-16 Democrat Pick Up.
Pennsylvania: House PA-3 Toss Up, PA-10 Toss Up, PA-11 Republican Pick Up.
New York: House NY-13 Democrat Pick Up, NY-25 Democrat Pick Up, NY-26 Republican Hold, NY-29 Toss Up.

Electoral Vote Projection Update November 03 2008





Three Blue Dudes has averaged all of the prediction pages out there and they now have Obama winning the Presidency with about 320 electoral votes. Fifty more than the 270 needed.

Our projection as it stands today is that Obama will win with 353 electoral votes versus McCain's 185.

Great Plains Projection.

Overall seven states, net senate change 0, net house change Republican +1.

North Dakota: No Change.
South Dakota: No Change.
Nebraska: No Change.
Kansas: House KS-2 Republican Pickup.
Oklahoma: No Change.
Missouri: House MO-6 Republican Hold, MO-9 Republican Hold.
Iowa: No Change.

Mountain States Projection.

Overall eight states, net senate change Democrat +2, net house change Democrat +1.

Arizona: House AZ-1 Democratic Pickup, AZ-3 Republican Hold.
Nevada: House NV-3 Toss UP.
Utah: No Change.
Idaho: No Change.
Montana: No Change.
Wyoming: No Change.
Colorado: Senate Democratic Pickup, House CO-4 Toss Up.
New Mexico: Senate Democratic Pickup, House NM-1 Toss Up, NM-2 Toss Up.

Pacific States Projection.

Overall five states, net senate change Democrat +2, net house change Democrat +3.

Alaska: Senate: Democratic Pickup, House AL: Democratic Pickup
Hawaii: No change.
Washington: House WA-8: Toss up.
Oregon: Senate: Democratic Pickup.
California: House CA-4: Democratic Pickup.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Electoral vote projection Update October 24, 2008




Three Blue Dudes has averaged all of the prediction pages out there and they now have Obama winning the Presidency with about 320 electoral votes. Fifty more than the 270 needed.

Our projection as it stands today is that Obama will win with 375 electoral votes versus McCain's 163.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

US House Projection Update September 17, 2008

Our current projection for the US House is D-249 R-186. That is a Democratic pickup of 13 seats.

Other sites with House Projections.

Isto Pensitaris D-244 R-191
Vote Projections 2008 D-244 R-191
Electoral-Vote.com D-243 R-192
Election Projection D-245 R-190
Open Left D-248 R-181 Toss Up 6
CQ Politics D-236 R-183 Toss Up-16
Campaign Diaries D-253 R-182 Toss Up-4
PollShark D-236 R-186 Toss Up-13
The Conservative Hawk D-244 R-191

And of course a huge hat tip to 3 Blue Dudes. Their election projection database rocks.

Look for updates to our State House and Senate pages in the next 48 hours.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Electoral Vote Projection Update September 16, 2008



Here is a look at our Top Ten Battleground States:

Colorado: Toss Up Leaning Democrat.
Florida: Leans Republican.
Michigan: Leans Democrat.
Minnesota: Leans Democrat.
Nevada: Toss Up Leaning Republican.
New Hampshire: Toss Up Leaning Democrat.
New Mexico: Toss Up Leaning Democrat.
Ohio: Toss Up Leaning Republican.
Pennsylvania: Leans Democrat.
Virginia: Toss Up Leaning Republican.




Our projection as it stands now: Obama 273 vs McCain 265. No Change From Last Update.



Battle Ground States Detail, all Intrade quotes are for Democratic futures. Numbers can be thought of as percentages. For example a quote of 65 equals a 65% probability of the Democratic nominee picking up that states electoral votes.

Colorado:




Pollster Colorado Home Page.

Florida:




Pollster Florida Home Page

Michigan:




Pollster Michigan Home Page.

Minnesota:




Pollster Minnesota Home Page.

Nevada:




Pollster Nevada Home Page.

New Hampshire:




Pollster New Hampshire Home Page.

New Mexico:




Pollster New Mexico Home Page.

Ohio:




Pollster Ohio Home Page.

Pennsylvania:




Pollster Pennsylvania Home Page.

Virginia:




Pollster Virginia Home Page.

Our Election Projection Homepage is here.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

US Senate Projection Update 11 September 2008



Here is a look at the elite eight closest Senate Races:

Alaska: Leans Democratic Pickup
Colorado: Leans Democratic Pickup
Louisiana: Leans Democratic Hold
Minnesota: Republican Leaning Toss Up
Mississippi Special: Leans Republican Hold
New Hampshire: Democrat Favored Pickup
North Carolina: Republican Leaning Toss Up
Oregon: Leans Republican Hold

Virginia and New Mexico are such likely Democratic pickups that they are no longer on our elite eight seats to watch but they are worth a mention.

Our projection as it stands now: Democrats (Including Lieberman and Sanders) 56 Republicans 44.

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

Elite Eight Detail.

Races where we forecast party change:

New Hampshire: Sununu (R) inc vs. Shaheen (D)




Pollster Poll Average

Virginia: Open Gilmore (R) vs. Warner (D)




Pollster Poll Average

New Mexico: Open Udall (D) vs. Pearce (R)




Pollster Poll Average.

Colorado: Open Udall (D) vs. Schaeffer (R)




Polls for Schaeffer vs. Udall.

Alaska: Stevens (R) inc vs. Begich (D)




Pollster page for Stevens vs. Begich.

Races where we forecast no party change but competitive races:

Louisiana: Landrieu (D) inc vs. Kennedy (R)




Pollster page for Kennedy vs. Landrieu.

Minnesota: Coleman (R) inc vs. Franken (D)




Pollster page for Coleman vs. Franken.

Mississippi: To replace Trent Lott. Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D)




Pollster Page for Wicker vs. Musgrove.

North Carolina: Dole (R) inc vs. Hagan (D)




Pollster Page for Dole vs. Hagen.

Oregon: Smith (R) inc vs. Merkley (D)




Pollster Page for Smith vs. Merkley.

Electoral vote projection 2008 Intrade home page.

The variable that has the highest weight in our model is the intrade markets. Today marks a milestone, the first time ever that McCain futures are trading for more than Obama futures.




Of course this election isn't a national referendum, it is instead fifty one different elections, and the popular vote has no meaning what so ever, so our current projection is still favoring Obama, but if Colorado flips into the McCain column than McCain will take the lead in our projection for the first time also.

If you hate the electoral college and want to go to a national popular vote visit National Popular Vote.

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Electoral Vote Projection Update September 9, 2008


Our new projection shows one state moving from the Obama column to the McCain Column, Ohio.

As it stands right now, we project that Obama will win the Presidency with 273 electoral votes to McCain's 265.

Here is a look at our updated Electoral Vote Race Ratings Chart, Bold states have changed categories.

Toss Up (5): Republican; Ohio, Nevada and Virginia. Democrat; Colorado and New Hampshire.

Leans (6): Republican; Florida, Missouri and Montana. Democrat; Michigan, New Mexico and Pennsylvania.

Favored (5) Republican; Indiana and North Dakota. Democrat; Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

Safe Republican (20): Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Safe Democrat (15): California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.

Total Republican States: 28 States and 265 Electoral Votes.

Total Democratic States: 22 States and DC with 273 Electoral Votes.

Our Election Projection Homepage is here.

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

US Senate Projection Update 02 September 2008



Here is a look at the elite eight closest Senate Races:

Alaska: Likely Democratic Pickup
Colorado: Leans Democratic Pickup
Louisiana: Leans Democratic Hold
Minnesota: Republican Leaning Toss Up
Mississippi Special: Leans Republican Hold
New Hampshire: Likely Democratic Pickup
North Carolina: Republican Leaning Hold
Oregon: Republican Leaning Hold

Virginia and New Mexico are such likely Democratic pickups that they are no longer on our elite eight seats to watch but they are worth a mention.

Our projection as it stands now: Democrats (Including Lieberman and Sanders) 56 Republicans 44. We have moved the Mississippi Special into the Leans Republican category. No state since 1966 has voted to elect Senator's of different parties during the same election.

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

Monday, September 01, 2008

Electoral Vote Projection Update September 1, 2008




Our new projection shows one state moving from the Obama column to the McCain Column, Virginia.

As it stands right now, we project that Obama will win the Presidency with 293 electoral votes to McCain's 245.

Here is a look at our updated Electoral Vote Race Ratings Chart, Bold states have changed categories.

Toss Up (5): Republican; Nevada and Virginia. Democrat; Colorado, New Hampshire and Ohio.

Leans (5): Republican; Florida, Missouri and Montana. Democrat; Michigan, New Mexico.

Favored (7) Republican; Indiana, North Carolina and North Dakota. Democrat; Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Safe Republican (19): Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Safe Democrat (15): California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.

Total Republican States: 27 States and 245 Electoral Votes.

Total Democratic States: 23 States and DC with 293 Electoral Votes.

Our Election Projection Homepage is here.

Friday, August 15, 2008

Electoral Vote Projection Update August 15, 2008



Our new projection shows one state moving from the Obama column to the McCain Column, Nevada.

As it stands right now, we project that Obama will win the Presidency with 306 electoral votes to McCain's 232.

Here is a look at our updated Electoral Vote Race Ratings Chart, Bold states have changed categories.

Toss Up (3): Republican; Indiana and Nevada. Democrat; Virginia.

Leans (5): Republican; Florida. Democrat; Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire and Ohio.

Likely (8): Republican; Missouri, Montana, North Carolinaand North Dakota. Democrat; Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Favored (6) Republican; Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia and South Dakota. Democrat; Maine and Minnesota.

Safe Republican (14): Alabama, Arizona, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Safe Democrat (15): California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.

Total Republican States: 26 States and 232 Electoral Votes.

Total Democratic States: 24 States and DC with 306 Electoral Votes.

Breakdown of the changes:

Nevada is still basically in the toss up category, with less than a sixty percent probablity of going one way or the other, it has however moved from the Democratic to the Republican column.

Florida moved from likely to leans Republican.

Missouri, Montana and North Carolina all moved from Republican favored to likely Republican.

Wisconsin fell from Democrat favored to likely Democrat.

South Carolina and Alaska both moved from likely Republican to Republicn Favored.

Arkansas fell from safe Republican to Rebublican favored.

Maine fell from safe Democrat to Democrat favored.

Mississippi rose from Republican favored to safe Republican.

Our Election Projection Homepage is here.

Saturday, August 09, 2008

US Senate Projection Update 09 August 2008



Here is a look at the elite eight closest Senate Races:

Alaska: Likely Democratic Pickup
Louisiana: Democratic Toss Up
Maine: Likely Republican
Minnesota: Likely Republican
Mississippi Special: Leans Republican
New Hampshire: Likely Democratic Pickup
North Carolina: Leans Republican
Oregon: Republican Toss Up

Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico are all such likely Democratic pickups that they are no longer on our elite eight seats to watch but they are worth a mention.

Our projection as it stands now: Democrats (Including Lieberman and Sanders) 56 Republicans 44. We have moved the Mississippi Special into the Leans Republican category. No state since 1966 has voted to elect Senator's of different parties during the same election. We are surprised by the weakness of the Democratic incumbent in Louisiana. It appears that her vote in against the development of oil shale as a favor to Colorado Senator Ken Salazar (D) is hurting her.

This You Tube Video put up by the SRCC08 has gotten a lot of media attention in Colorado and Nationally.



Mary Landrieu (D) is certainly paying a heavy political price for her vote against expanding domestic oil production at the behest of Senator Salazar.

Mary Landrieu Voted Against Expanding Domestic Oil Production At The Request Of Senator Ken Salazar (D-C0), Despite Saying It Was Against Her General Philosophy. “‘Sen. Salazar asked me to vote no. I did so at his request,’ Landrieu said. ‘But I also told him because it's contrary to my normal philosophy that I’m going to reserve the right to work with him…’” (M.E. Sprengelmeyer, “Oil shale hits roadblock in Senate,” The Denver Post, 5/15/08)

Landrieu Was The Deciding Vote: “The fate of the amendment was sealed when Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., announced that, although she would support such a measure on the floor, she had agreed to oppose the amendment in committee at the behest of Democratic colleagues.” (Terry Kivlan, “Senate Panel Passes $193 Billion War Supplemental Bill,” National Journal’s CongressDaily, 5/16/08)”




US Senate Projection Home Page here.

US Senate Race Ratings Chart

Toss Up (2): Republican; Oregon. Democrat; Louisiana.

Leans (2): Republican; Mississippi Special, North Carolina. Democrat; None.

Likely (6): Republican; Kentucky, Maine and Minnesota. Democrat; Alaska (Pickup), Colorado (Pickup) and New Hampshire (Pickup).

Favored (2) Republican; Idaho and Texas. Democrat; None.

Safe Republican (10): Alabama, Georgia, Kansas, Mississippi Regular, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Wyoming Special and Wyoming Regular.

Safe Democrat (13): Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico (Pickup), Rhode Island, South Dakota, Virginia (Pickup) and West Virginia.

Current Senate Make Up: D-51 R-49 including Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats.

Projected Senate Make Up: D-56 R-44 including Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats.

Thursday, August 07, 2008

Colorado State House Race Ratings Chart.

Current Make Up: Democrats 40 Republicans 25. Projected Make Up: Democrats 36 Republicans 26 Toss Up 4

Safe Republican 22

Safe Democrat 22

Republican Favored 3

Democrat Favored 8

Leans Republican 1

Leans Democrat 5

Toss Up Republican Held 0

Toss Up Democrat Held 4

Colorado State Senate Race Ratings Chart.

Current Make Up: 20 Democrats 15 Republicans. Projected Make Up: Democrats 18 Republicans 15 Toss Up 2

No Election: R-8 D-8

Safe Republican (4): SD 27, SD 4, SD 10, SD 12

Safe Democrat (8): SD 17, SD 18, SD 25, SD 28, SD 29, SD 31, SD 33, SD 35

Republican Favored (1): SD 26

Democrat Favored (2): SD 14, SD 21

Leans Republican (0): SD 8, SD 23

Leans Democrat (0)

Toss Up Republican Held (0)

Toss Up Democrat Held (2): SD 16, SD 19

Electoral Vote Race Ratings Chart.

Toss Up (4): Republican; Florida and Indiana. Democrat; Nevada and Virginia.

Leans (7): Republican; Missouri, Montana and North Carolina. Democrat; Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire and Ohio.

Likely (6): Republican; Alaska, North Dakota and South Dakota. Democrat; Iowa, New Mexico and Pennsylvania.

Favored (4) Republican; Georgia and Mississippi. Democrat; Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Safe Republican (15): Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Safe Democrat (15): California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.

Total Republican States: 25 States and 227 Electoral Votes.

Total Democratic States: 25 States and DC with 311 Electoral Votes.

Wednesday, August 06, 2008

Electoral Vote Projection Update August 6, 2008



Our prediction remains unchanged at Obama 311 McCain 227.

Here are what some of the other projection sites say:

Electoral-Vote.com predicts Obama 289 McCain 236 Toss Up 13.



3 Blue Dudes predicts Obama 260 McCain 157 Toss Up 121.



Election Projection (our original inspiration) predicts Obama 298 McCain 240



3 Blue Dudes has a great Election Projection Project Data Base where they have links to every projection website that they have found. If your really into politics, this website is nirvana for you. You can find it by clicking here.

Our Election Projection Homepage is here.

Tuesday, August 05, 2008

State House and State Senate Prediction Update.

Here is our new projection for the Colorado State Senate and Colorado State House elections.

State Senate: Current D-20 R-15 Projection D-18 R-15 Toss up-2

State House: Current D-40 R-25 Projection D-36 R-26 Toss up-4

Detailed analysis will be up shortly along with a map of the State House Districts.

Thursday, July 31, 2008

State House Districts: Douglas County and Teller County.

Colorado State House District 43 (HD 43): Safe Republican. Frank McNulty (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.frankmcnulty.com/ CO Maps HD 43 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 44 (HD 44): Safe Republican. Mike May (R) Junior* Contact: http://www.mike-may.org/ CO Maps HD 44 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 45 (HD 45): Safe Republican. Open CO Maps HD 45 Page Here.

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

State House Districts: Arapahoe and Elbert County.

Colorado State House District 36 (HD 36): Democrat Favored. Open CO Maps HD 36 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 37 (HD 37): Safe Republican. Spencer Swalm (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.swalmforhd37.org/ CO Maps HD 37 Page Here. Spencer Swalm Wikipedia page here.

Colorado State House District 38 (HD 38): Leans Democrat. Joe Rice (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.votejoerice.com/ CO Maps HD 38 Page Here. Joe Rice Wikipedia page here.

Colorado State House District 39 (HD 39): Safe Republican. David Balmer (R) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.davidbalmer.com/ CO Maps HD 39 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 40 (HD 40): Safe Republican Pickup. Open CO Maps HD 40 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 41 (HD 41): Safe Democrat. Nancy Todd (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.nancytodd.org/ CO Maps HD 41 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 42 (HD 42): Safe Democrat. Open CO Maps HD 42 Page Here.

State House Districts: El Paso and Fremont County.

Colorado State House District 14 (HD 14): Safe Republican. Kent Lambert (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.kentlambert.com/ CO Maps HD 14 Page Here. Kent Lambert Wikipedia page here.

Colorado State House District 15 (HD 15): Safe Republican. Douglas Bruce (R) Red Shirt Freshman* Contact: http://www.state.co.us/gov_dir/leg_dir/House/members/Hou15.html CO Maps HD 15 Page Here. Douglas Bruce Wikipedia page here.

Colorado State House District 16 (HD 16): Safe Republican. Larry Liston (R) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.larrylistonforhd16.com/ CO Maps HD 16 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 17 (HD 17): Republican Favored. Stella Hicks (R) Freshman* Contact: stella.hicks.house@state.co.us CO Maps HD 17 Page Here. Stella Hicks Wikipedia Page here.

Colorado State House District 18 (HD 18): Democrat Favored. Michael Merrifield (D) Junior* Contact: http://www.michaelmerrifield.org/ CO Maps HD 18 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 19 (HD 19): Safe Republican. Marsha Looper (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.gomarsha.org/ CO Maps HD 19 Page Here. Marsha Looper Wikipedia here.

Colorado State House District 20 (HD 20): Safe Republican. Amy Stephens (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.amystephens4hd20.com/ CO Maps HD 20 Page Here. Amy Stephens Wikipedia here.

Colorado State House District 21 (HD 21): Safe Republican. Bob Gardner (R) Sophomore* Contact: bob.gardner.house@state.co.us CO Maps HD 21 Page Here. Bob Gardner Wikipedia here.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

State House Districts: Broomfield and Adams County.

Adams County GOP here.

Adams County Democrats here.

Colorado State House District 30 (HD 30): Democrat Favored. Open CO Maps HD 30 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 31 (HD 31): Leans Democrat. Judy Solano (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.judysolano.com/ CO Maps HD 31 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 32 (HD 32): Safe Democrat. Edward Casso (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.edwardcassofor32.org/ CO Maps HD 32 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 33 (HD 33): To Close to Call. Dianne Primavera (D) Freshman* Contact: http://dianneprimavera.com/ CO Maps HD 33 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 34 (HD 34): Safe Democrat. John Soper (D) Freshman* Contact: johnsoper235@comcast.net CO Maps HD 34 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 35 (HD 35): Safe Democrat. Cherylin Peniston (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.cherylinpeniston.com/ CO Maps HD 35 Page Here.

Sunday, July 27, 2008

State House Districts: Boulder, Gilpin and Clear Creek Counties. HD 10-13

The four House Districts that are centered around Boulder County reliably elect Democrats.

Colorado State House District 10 (HD 10): Safe Democrat. Open. CO Maps HD 10 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 11 (HD 11): Safe Democrat. Jack Pommer (D) Junior* Contact: http://www.hd11.org/ CO Maps HD 11 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 12 (HD 12): Safe Democrat. Paul Weissmann (D) Junior* Contact: http://www.paulinthehouse.com/ CO Maps HD 12 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 13 (HD 13): Safe Democrat. Claire Levy (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.clairelevy.org/ CO Maps HD 13 Page Here.

Electoral vote projection Update July 27, 2008




Here is our new update. As things stand now Obama would win the Presidency with 311 electoral votes to McCain's 227.

Missouri has moved from going from Obama to McCain. It is our only change this week.

Our dirty dozen most competitive states have changed somewhat. Michigan and Pennsylvania are dropping off and becoming safe democratic states. North Carolina and North Dakota are moving into the competitive column.

Here is a list of our top twelve most competitive states as things stand right now.

Leaning McCain:
North Carolina, North Dakota, Montana, Florida, Indiana and Missouri.

Leaning Obama:
Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado and New Mexico.

Our electoral vote homepage is here.

Saturday, July 26, 2008

State House Districts: Jefferson County

Map of Jeffco Precincts.
Jefferson County GOP
Jefferson County Democrats

Jefferson County is the front line in the battle for control of the State Legislature. The last three elections have been disastrous for the GOP. The Democrats have made major gains in this suburban county. Here is a recent post from Face the State, a conservative website, that outlines the setbacks the GOP has experienced in Jeffco, as it is known locally.

Colorado State House District 22 (HD 22): Republican Favored. Ken Summers (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.ken4colorado.com/index.html CO Maps HD 22 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 23 (HD 23): Leans Democrat. Gwyn Green (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.gwyngreen.com/ CO Maps HD 23 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 24 (HD 24): Democrat Favored. Open CO Maps HD 24 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 25 (HD 25): Republican Favored. Open CO Maps HD 25 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 26 (HD 26): Democrat Favored. Andrew Kerr (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.andykerr.org/ CO Maps HD 26 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 27 (HD 27): No Clear Favorite. Sara Gagliardi (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.saragagliardi.com/ CO Maps HD 27 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 28 (HD 28): Safe Republican. James Kerr (R) Freshman* Contact: james.kerr.house@state.co.us CO Maps HD 28 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 29 (HD 29): Leans Democrat. Debbie Benefield (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.debbiebenefield.org/ CO Maps HD 29 Page Here.

* Members of the Colorado House can only serve four terms (well four and a half, but that is pretty rare) so we divide them into classes, Freshman, Sophomore, Junior and Senior. Senior's are term limited (unless otherwise noted).

Colorado State House Districts: City and County of Denver

Here is a map State House District 1-9, all centered within the City and County of Denver.

All nine of these House Districts are listed as Safe Democratic Seats. All of them have the majority of their voting populations inside the City and County of Denver. You should click on the link to the CO Map page for each district, CO Maps is a wealth of information.

Colorado State House District 1 (HD 1): Safe Democrat. Jeanne Labuda (D) Freshman* Contact: http://repjeannelabuda.com/ CO Maps HD 1 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 2 (HD 2): Safe Democrat. Mark Ferrandino (D) Appointed Freshman* Contact: mark.ferrandino.house@state.co.us CO Maps HD 2 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 3 (HD 3): Safe Democrat. Anne McGihon (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.annemcgihon.com/ CO Maps HD 3 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 4 (HD 4): Safe Democrat. K.Jerry Frangas (D) Junior* Contact: kjerry.frangas.house@state.co.us CO Maps HD 4 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 5 (HD 5): Safe Democrat. Joel Judd (D) Junior* Contact: http://www.joeljudd.com/ CO Maps HD 5 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 6 (HD 6): Safe Democrat. Open CO Maps HD 6 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 7 (HD 7): Safe Democrat. Terrance Carroll (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.terrancecarroll.com/ CO Maps HD 7 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 8 (HD 8): Safe Democrat. Open CO Maps HD 8 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 9 (HD 9): Safe Democrat. Open CO Maps HD 9 Page Here.

* Members of the Colorado House can only serve four terms (well four and a half, but that is pretty rare) so we divide them into classes, Freshman, Sophomore, Junior and Senior. Senior's are term limited (unless otherwise noted).

Friday, July 25, 2008

Honey Moon for Colorado Governor Bill Ritter Seems to be Over.

The Democratic party has had a remarkable rise in Colorado. In 2002 the GOP held both houses of the State Legislature, the Governor's office, five out of seven US House Seats and both Senate Seats. Today the Colorado Republican party has lost two of its five US House Seats, a Senate Seat, the Governor's mansion and both houses of the State Legislature. It looked like the DNC convention scheduled for late August in Denver was going to be the crowning moment of the new Democratic alignment.

However, over the past few days a few news stories have come out that suggest that the Democratic hold on Colorado may be more tenuous than anyone would have thought a few weeks ago. A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows that the percentage of Coloradans that rate Governor Bill Ritter as either doing a "good" or "excellent" job has slipped by 13 points since May. The poll seems to be flawed in that it doesn't just ask if you approve or disapprove of the Governor's job. Instead it had many more options. The analysis from later in the Denver Post story seems to have captured more of what is going on in Colorado.

He has become a more partisan-appearing figure," Ciruli (a Denver based Pollster and Political Analyst) said of Ritter. "He (was elected) over (Republican Bob) Beauprez with a very significant amount of Republican support and a strong number of unaffiliated voters. He appeared at that time to be more conservative and not so controversial."
Ciruli said Ritter's efforts to give collective-bargaining rights to state employees stoked opposition among Republicans in particular.
The governor's standing, Ciruli said, also suffered when a district judge this year ruled a Ritter-backed property-tax freeze unconstitutional. The ruling is being appealed.
Ritter also has faced pushback over his support for eliminating a tax break for the oil and gas industry and over his support for restrictions on expanding oil and gas development, Ciruli said.
His policies aside, Ritter's lower poll numbers this summer also may reflect a general unease among voters in a time of rising gasoline and food prices, Ciruli said.
"One of the factors is that even in Colorado, which to some extent has been immune to the repercussions of the declining economy, it's finally caught up to us," he said.


In a Op-Ed piece from earlier this week Ciruli outlined how significantly Ritter's polling drop is:

Surprisingly, new Democratic Gov. Bill Ritter may be in trouble. When compared with his Montana counterpart, Gov. Brian Schweitzer, in recent Rasmussen polls, Ritter's job rating lags behind Schweitzer by 19 points. Only 45 percent of Colorado voters gave Ritter an excellent or good job rating, whereas 64 percent of Montanans rated Schweitzer as doing an excellent or good job.


On top of all of this the State Democrats have to deal with rising scandals associated with the Democratic National Convention in Denver. Security concerns have become a giant head ache. Additionally, a scandal over the DNC not paying gas taxes hit this week.

Members of the committee hosting the Democratic National Convention are filling their car gas tanks at city-owned gas pumps, avoiding state and federal fuel taxes.


Even the Denver Post's left center Op Ed page chastised the apparent no tax deal for the DNC.

So, let's get this straight: While the rest of us poor schlubs have been grimacing as we put $4 a gallon gas into our cars, local organizers of the Democratic National Convention have been pumping tax-free gas into theirs?
That's just wrong. The local committee hosting the DNC ought to pay the same state and federal taxes — which amount to 40 cents a gallon — that the rest of us pay.
The disclosure came at a regular Denver City Council meeting Tuesday, and by the end of the day it seemed that everyone involved was quickly backpedaling and promising that local organizers indeed would be paying taxes on gas.
Good. But the larger issue, of course, is whether and how taxpayers might find themselves subsidizing the DNC.,,

As for the gas situation, we've heard it was an effort to give local DNC organizers a secure place to fill up, a concern should they have dignitaries in the car.
That sounds like a stretch. If you're ferrying some Democratic hotshot from the airport to a hotel, wouldn't you fill up first? It doesn't seem plausible that you'd take such a guest by the city yards to tank up.
A host committee spokesman told the Rocky Mountain News that they used city pumps because it's safer and the gas isn't "tainted."

Tuesday, July 22, 2008

US Senate Projection Update 22 July 2008




Here is a look at the elite eight closest Senate Races:

Alaska: Weak Democratic Pickup (60% probability)
Louisiana: Weak Democratic Hold (60%)
Maine: Moderate Republican Hold (70%)
Minnesota: Moderate Republican Hold (67%)
Mississippi Special: Weak Democratic Pickup (60%)
New Hampshire: Strong Democratic Pickup (78%)
North Carolina: Moderate Republican Hold (61%)
Oregon: Weak Republican Hold (57%)

Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico are all such likely Democratic pickups that they are no longer on our elite eight seats to watch but they are worth a mention.

Our projection as it stands now: Democrats (Including Lieberman and Sanders) 57 Republicans 43. No change from last projection.

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

Friday, July 18, 2008

Electoral Vote Projection Update July 18, 2008



Here is our new update. As things stand now Obama would win the Presidency with 322 electoral votes to McCain's 216.

There is no change from our last projection.

Our dirty dozen most competitive states have changed somewhat. Michigan and Pennsylvania are dropping off and becoming safe democratic states. North Carolina and North Dakota are moving into the competitive column.

Here is a list of our top twelve most competitive states as things stand right now.

Leaning McCain:
North Carolina, North Dakota, Montana, Florida and Indiana.

Leaning Obama:
Nevada, Missouri, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico.

Our electoral vote homepage is here.

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Colorado State Senate Update July 17, 2008




Our current projection for the State Senate is D 18 R 15 Toss Up 2

Click on the image above for a bigger version of the map.

Senate District 16 and 19 are the most competitive districts right now. Even if the GOP picks up both seats they will not be able to gain control of the State Senate. Maybe if they could get a candidate for district 20? Anyway, it looks like Jefferson County will be the front line for this years battle for the State Senate.

If you have any comments, suggestions, inside info or corrections, please e-mail us at milehighdelphi@yahoo.com.

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Schaffer vs Udall Debate Reaction.

We here at MHD try our best to be non-biased. The conventional wisdom seems to be coming down on the side of Bob Shaffer winning the first debate in the Colorado senate race.

Here is a link to Channel 9. From their page you can watch the video yourself. Watch the debate here and make up your own mind.

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

"Colorado Model" Making Media Waves.

In a recent Weekly Standard article, Fred Barnes outlined "The Colorado Model."

The Democratic surge in Colorado reflects the national trend, but it involves a great deal more. There's something unique going on in Colorado that, if copied in other states, has the potential to produce sweeping Democratic gains nationwide. That something is the "Colorado Model," and it's certain to be a major topic of discussion when Democrats convene in Denver in the last week of August for their national convention.

While the Colorado Model isn't a secret, it hasn't drawn much national attention either. Democrats, for now anyway, seem wary of touting it. One reason for their reticence is that it depends partly on wealthy liberals' spending tons of money not only on "independent expenditures" to attack Republican office-seekers but also to create a vast infrastructure of liberal organizations that produces an anti-Republican, anti-conservative echo chamber in politics and the media.



Liberal reaction in Colorado has been mixed. Colorado Pols is a daily read for us here at Mile High Delphi. Colorado Pols is dominated by liberals, but it is still the best place to get the "inside baseball" gossip on Colorado politics.

...total spending (hard and soft) on campaigns in Colorado leans our way for 2004 and 2006. Not by a huge amount, but thanks to a ton of small donors -- and above all Jared, Tim, Pat, and Rutt -- we actually have outspent them. -Boulder Dem


Reading through the posts on Colorado Pols, it is easy to see that the liberal prognosticoti see that the main reason that they have won in Colorado is because they are right, not because they are logistically better prepared now than in the early part of the decade.

The conservatives fail to reconize that a great swath of the unaffiliated voters in Colorado have turned into reliable democratic voters. They can ignore these voters at their own peril.

Here at MHD we have seen the "Colorado Model" for years. However, we don't believe that it is as simple as the "Gang of Four" or that the GOP was too conservative. Amendment 27, passed in 2002, critically wounded the ability of the GOP to fundraise. Until the GOP learns to compete under the rules of 27, the Colorado Model will continue.

Friday, July 11, 2008

US Senate Projection Update 11 July 2008




Here is a look at the elite eight closest Senate Races:

Alaska: Weak Democratic Pickup (59% probability)
Colorado: Strong Democratic Pickup (81%)
Louisiana: Weak Democratic Hold (57%)
Minnesota: Moderate Republican Hold (62%)
Mississippi Special: Moderate Democratic Pickup (61%)
New Hampshire: Strong Democratic Pickup (75%)
North Carolina: Moderate Republican Hold (65%)
Oregon: Weak Republican Hold (59%)

Virginia and New Mexico are both such likely Democratic pickups that they are no longer on our elite eight seats to watch but they are worth a mention.

Our projection as it stands now: Democrats (Including Lieberman and Sanders) 57 Republicans 43. No change from last projection.

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

Tuesday, July 08, 2008

Electoral Vote Projection Update July 8, 2008



Here is our new update. As things stand now Obama would win the Presidency with 322 electoral votes to McCain's 216.

There is no change from our last projection.

Our dirty dozen most competitive states have changed somewhat. Iowa is dropping off and becoming a safe democratic state and surprizingly enough Montana is moving into the competitive column, although we are still giving its votes to McCain.

Here is a list of our top twelve most competitive states as things stand right now.

Leaning McCain:
Montana, Florida and Indiana.

Leaning Obama:
Nevada, Missouri, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Our electoral vote homepage is here.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

US Senate Projection Update June 24th 2008



Our new Senate Projection is unchanged from our last one. We forecast the Democrats picking up six seats.

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

Electoral Vote Projection Update June 24th



Here is our new update. As things stand now Obama would win the Presidency with 322 electoral votes to McCain's 216.

Two more states have gone into the Democratic column this week, Nevada and Missouri.

Our electoral vote homepage is here.

Thursday, June 19, 2008

US Senate Projection Update 20 June 2008



Like with our Electoral Projection we will no longer have toss ups. As things stand now our map stays the same, with the Democrats picking up six seats. Including Liberman and Sanders, the two independents who caucus with the Democrats, the Senate will be made up of 57 Democrats and 43 Republicans after the election of 2008.

Below is a chart of the ten closest races:

Alaska D 52.5% Pick Up
Louisiana D 55% Hold
Minnesota R 59.9% Hold
Mississippi (Special) D 60% Pick Up
Oregon R 64.2 Hold
Colorado D 65% Pick Up
New Hampshire D 68% Pick Up
North Carolina R 70% Hold
New Mexico D 75% Pick Up
Virginia D 89.9% Pick Up

Race specific pages will be coming up in the next few weeks.

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Electoral Vote Projection Mid June 2008



After much thought we have decided to modify our projection. We will no longer have toss up states.

Our electoral vote home page is here.

Our current projection shows Obama beating McCain 306 Electoral votes to 232.

Here is a quick look at the dirty dozen most competitive states:

Leaning Republican:

Nevada 51% probability of voting for McCain.
Missouri 57.5% probability of voting for McCain.
Florida 71% probability of voting for McCain.
Indiana 75% probability of voting for McCain.

Leaning Democrat:

Virgina 50.1% probability of voting for Obama.
New Hampshire 54% probability of voting for Obama.
Ohio 62.9% probability of voting for Obama.
Colorado 67% probability of voting for Obama.
New Mexico 68.5% probability of voting for Obama.
Pennsylvania 75% probability of voting for Obama.
Iowa 76% probability of voting for Obama.
Michigan 77% probability of voting for Obama.

Every other state a better than 80% probability of voting for either one of the candidates.

A closer look at polling, along with a new senate update will be up this week.

Thursday, June 05, 2008

Colorado Politics 101: How liberal our our Democrats?

Every year the National Journal publishes a list of the members of the House and Senate, they are ranked, based upon their voting behavior, from most liberal to most conservative.

First we will look at Colorado's Democratic Delegation.

Senator Salazar is ranked as the 42nd most liberal Senator, placing him squarely in moderate territory among such Senators as Jim Webb (D) of Virginia, Byron Dorgan (D) of North Dakota and Joe Liberman (ind. D) of Conn.

As for the House Delegation. Representaive Degette (Denver) is far and away the most liberal member of the Colorado Delegation. She is ranked as the 36th most liberal member of the House. The other three Democrats are bunched together towards the more moderate wing of the party. Perlmutter ranks at 150th, Udall ranks at 181st and Salazar ranks as 190th.

Overall we can see that the Colorado Democratic Delegation is more moderate than the average Democrat, with only Diana Degette ranking among the most liberal members of the Congress.

Sunday, June 01, 2008

US Senate Projection Update 1 June 2008


US Senate Homepage

Current Projection: Democrats gain 6 seats. Results D-57 R-43

The elite eight most competitive Senate Races:

Races are listed by how competitive they are based upon Intrade probabilities:

(1) Previous Rank (4)

Alaska: Stevens (R) inc vs. Begich (D) Intrade gives Begich a 50% probability of winning. This race has been all over the map, in April Begich went from a probability of winning in the mid 30% up to 60%. During the last few weeks the race has tightened up again.

Average of the polls shows Begich leading Stevens 46.75% to 42.75%.

Pollster page for Stevens vs. Begich.

Alaska Intrade page here.

Democrat pickup.

(2) Previous Rank (2)

Louisiana: Landrieu (D) inc vs. Kennedy (R) Intrade gives Landrieu a 55% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Kennedy trailing Landrieu 41.67% to 44.67%.

Intrade Louisiana page here.

Pollster page for Kennedy vs. Landrieu.

No change in party control.

(2) Previous Rank (3)

Minnesota: Coleman (R) inc vs. Franken (D) Intrade gives Coleman a 55% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Coleman beating Franken 49.8% to 44%.

Intrade Minnesota page here.

Pollster page for Coleman vs. Franken.

No change in party control.

(4) Previously not ranked.
North Carolina: Dole (R) inc vs. Hagen (D) Intrade gives Dole a 57.5% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Dole leading Hagen 47.7% to 44.5%.

Intrade NC page here.

Pollster page for Dole vs. Hagen.

No change in party control.

(5)Previous Rank (6)
Colorado: Open Udall (D) vs. Schaeffer (R) Intrade gives Udall a 60% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Udall beating Schaffer 46.8% to 41.5%.

Intrade Colorado page here.

Polls for Schaeffer vs. Udall.

Democrat pickup.

(6) Previous Rank (1)

Mississippi: To replace Trent Lott. Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D) Intrade gives Musgrove a 63% probability of picking up Trent Lott's former seat in this special election.

The average of the polls shows Wicker edging Musgrove 44.7% to 44%. Pollster's Mississippi special election page is here.

Intrade's Mississippi Special page is here.

Democrat pickup.

(7) Previously Not Ranked

Oregon: Smith (R) inc vs. Merkley (D). Intrade gives Smith a 64.2% probability of retaining his seat this election.

Average of the polls shows Smith beating Merkley 44.9% to 42.4%. Polster page for Smith vs. Merkley is here.

Intrade page for Oregon is here.

No change in party control.

(8)Previous (7)

New Mexico: Open Udall (D) vs. Pearce (R) or Wilson (R) Intrade gives Udall a 70% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Udall beating Pearce 55.5% to 37.4% and Udall beating Wilson 58.9% to 35.6%.

Polls for Udall vs. Wilson and for Udall vs. Pearce.

Intrade NM page here.
Democrat pickup.

No longer in the Elite eight, but worth of note due to party change:

New Hampshire: Sununu (R) inc vs. Shaheen (D) Intrade gives Shaheen a 67.5% probability of winning.

Pollster has the average of the polls showing Shaheen beating Sununu 49.7% to 40.2%.

Pollster Poll Average

Democrat pickup.


Virginia: Open Gilmore (R) vs. Warner (D) Intrade gives Warner a 82.5% probability of winning.

Pollster is showing Warner beating Gilmore 55.4% to 37.6%.

Pollster Poll Average

Democrat pickup.

Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Who is going to win Indiana and North Carolina?

Today the Democrats are having primaries in Indiana and North Carolina.

According to Intrade, Hillary Clinton has a 88% probability of winning Indiana. Obama is the favorite in North Carolina with a 94% probability of winning.

Pollster.com has Clinton ahead in Indiana 48.6% to 44.4%. Real Clear Politics mirrors pollster with their poll average at 49% to 44%.

Pollster.com has Obama ahead in North Carolina with 49.6% to 42.3%. Real Clear Politic's average is about the same, with Obama leading Clinton 50% to 42%.

We predict that Obama will win North Carolina and Hillary will win Indiana.

So at the end of the day, the Democratic race will be at the same spot it was before.

Just as an aside, Intrade puts the probability that Obama will be the Democratic nominee at 77.9%. So it looks like these primaries are really much ado about nothing.

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

US Senate Projection Update April 30, 2008

US Senate Homepage


Current Projection: Democrats gain 5 seats. Results D-56 R-44

The elite eight most competitive Senate Races:

Races are listed by how competitive they are based upon Intrade probabilities:

(1)Mississippi: To replace Trent Lott. Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D) No Polling
Intrade lists the races as 50/50 with no volume.

No change in party control.

(2)Louisiana: Landrieu (D) inc vs. Kennedy (R) Intrade gives Landrieu a 55% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Kennedy trailing Landrieu 40.5% to 48%.

Pollster page for Kennedy vs. Landrieu.

No change in party control.

(3)Minnesota: Coleman (R) inc vs. Franken (D) Intrade gives Coleman a 56% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Coleman beating Franken 49.3% to 43%.

Pollster page for Coleman vs. Franken.

No change in party control.

(4)Alaska: Stevens (R) inc vs. Begich (D) Intrade gives Begich a 62.5% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Begich leading Stevens 46% to 43.5%.

Pollster page for Stevens vs. Begich.

Democrat pickup.

(5)New Hampshire: Sununu (R) inc vs. Shaheen (D) Intrade gives Shaheen a 64% probability of winning.

As of 3/17 the poll average showed Shaheen leading Sununu 49% to 39%.

Pollster Poll Average

Democrat pickup.

(6)Colorado: Open Udall (D) vs. Schaeffer (R) Intrade gives Udall a 64% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Udall beating Schaffer 45.5% to 38%.

Polls for Schaeffer vs. Udall.

Democrat pickup.

(7)New Mexico: Open Udall (D) vs. Pearce (R) or Wilson (R) Intrade gives Udall a 75% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Udall beating Pearce 54% to 37% and Udall beating Wilson 55% to 38%.

Polls for Udall vs. Wilson and for Udall vs. Pearce.

Democrat pickup.

(8)Virginia: Open Gilmore (R) vs. Warner (D) Intrade gives Warner a 80.5% probability of winning.

As of 3/27 the poll average showed Warner beating Gilmore 56% to 38.5%.

Pollster Poll Average

Democrat pickup.

Saturday, April 26, 2008

Electoral Vote Projection Update Late April 2008.




Our late April update shows the race for President tightening. If the election were held today neither party would have the 270 votes needed in order to win the presidency. We have the race nearly tied at D-234 R-240 Toss up-64.

Electoral vote projection home page here.

Super Competitive States:

Colorado: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Colorado at 60%.

Pollster.com has the average of Colorado polls for Obama vs. McCain at 43.7-46.7.

We are going to keep Colorado in the Toss Up category.

New Mexico: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning New Mexico at 64%.

Pollster.com has the average of New Mexico polls for Obama vs. McCain at 42.5% to 47%.

We are going to keep New Mexico in the Toss Up category.

Nevada: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Nevada at 53%.

Pollster.com has the average of Nevada polls for Obama vs. McCain at 47-40.

We are going to keep Nevada in the Toss Up category.

Ohio: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Ohio at 62.5%.

Pollster.com has the average of Ohio polls for Obama vs. McCain at 42.7-45.3.

Real Clear Politics has the general election average at 42.7% for Obama and 45.3% for McCain.

We are going to keep Ohio in the Toss Up category.

Competitive States:

Iowa: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Iowa at 66%.

Pollster.com has the average of Iowa polls for Obama vs. McCain at 47.5 to 42.6.

Real Clear Politics has the general election average at 49.3% for Obama and 40% for McCain.

We have Iowa in the Democratic Category.

Minnesota: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Minnesota at 80%.

Pollster.com has the average of Minnesota polls for Obama vs. McCain at 51.1-39.7.

We have Minnesota in the Democratic Category.

New Hampshire: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning New Hampshire at 55%.

Pollster.com has the average of New Hampshire polls for Obama vs. McCain at 46-42.

We are putting New Hampshire's electoral votes in the Toss Up category..

Pennsylvania: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Pennsylvania at 67.5%.

Pollster.com has the average of the Pennsylvania polls for Obama vs. McCain at 42.7 to 45.2.

Real Clear Politics has the race tied at 43%.

We are moving Pennsylvania into the Toss Up Category.

Competitive States:

Arkansas: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Arkansas electoral votes at 26%.

Pollster.com has the average of polls in Arkansas with McCain leading Obama 53% to 30%.

We are giving Arkansas electoral votes to McCain.

Michigan: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Michigan's electoral votes at 78%.

Pollster.com has the average of polls in Michigan showing Obama leading McCain 42.5% to 41.2%.

We are keeping Michigan's electoral votes in the Democratic category.

Missouri: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Missouri's electoral votes at 42.5%.

Pollster.com has the average of polls in Missouri showing McCain beating Obama 52.8% to 39.9%.

We are giving Missouri's electoral votes to McCain.

Virginia: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Virginia's electoral votes at 44.5%.

Pollster.com has the average of polls in Virginia showing McCain beating Obama 52.3% to 43.1%.

We are putting Virginia's Electoral votes in the McCain category.

Sunday, April 20, 2008

Who is going to win the Pennsylvania primary?

Here is our look at the Pennsylvania primary:

Two questions need to be asked, firstly who is going to win and secondly by how much? Conventional wisdom says that Clinton has to win, and that she needs to win by a certain margin in order to continue her challenge to Barack Obama.

The first thing that we always look at is what the futures markets say. The intrade market for the Penn. primary says that Clinton has a 89% probability of winning. That is huge. Clinton is going to win Pennsylvania.

Now the only question is by how much? Here is a link to the pollster page for the Penn. primary. As of right now the poll average is Clinton 48.1% vs Obama 42%. That is a spread of 6.1%. Real Clear Politics has the spread at 5.3%, with Clinton beating Obama 47.6% to 42.3%.

We have seen Clinton consistently overperform her polling numbers this cycle. We put the spread at at least 7%.

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Elite Eight Top Most Competitive Senate Races.

US Senate Homepage Current Projection

Races where we forecast party change:

New Hampshire: Sununu (R) inc vs. Shaheen (D)

As of 3/17 the poll average showed Shaheen leading Sununu 49% to 39%.

Pollster Poll Average

Virginia: Open Gilmore (R) vs. Warner (D)

As of 3/27 the poll average showed Warner beating Gilmore 56% to 38.5%.

Pollster Poll Average

New Mexico: Open Udall (D) vs. Pearce (R) or Wilson (R)

Average of the polls shows Udall beating Pearce 54% to 37% and Udall beating Wilson 55% to 38%.

Polls for Udall vs. Wilson and for Udall vs. Pearce.

Colorado: Open Udall (D) vs. Schaeffer (R)

Average of the polls shows Udall beating Schaffer 45.5% to 38%.

Polls for Schaeffer vs. Udall.

Louisiana: Landrieu (D) inc vs. Kennedy (R)

Average of the polls shows Kennedy trailing Landrieu 40.5% to 48%.

Pollster page for Kennedy vs. Landrieu.

Races where we forecast no party change but competitive races:

Minnesota: Coleman (R) inc vs. Franken (D)

Average of the polls shows Coleman beating Franken 49.3% to 43%.

Pollster page for Coleman vs. Franken.

Alaska: Stevens (R) inc vs. Begich (D)

Average of the polls shows Begich leading Stevens 46% to 43.5%.

Pollster page for Stevens vs. Begich.

Mississippi: To replace Trent Lott. Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D)

Monday, April 14, 2008

Electoral Projection Update 4/13/2008




Our new projection shows neither party with 270 electoral votes. As it stands today the Democrats have 259 electoral votes, the Republicans have 240 and 39 are in the toss up category.