Monday, January 25, 2010

Mile High Delphi's "Nasty Nine" Top US Senate Races for 2010

North Dakota: Open Democrat Seat. Projection Likely Republican Pickup

Arkansas: Lincoln (D) inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup

Nevada: Reid (D) inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup

Delaware: Open Seat: Ted Kaufman - D retiring Projection Leans Republican Pickup

Pennsylvania: Specter (D) Inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup

Colorado: Bennet (D) Inc. Projection Leans Republican Pickup

Missouri: Open Seat: Kit Bond - R retiring Projection Leans GOP Hold

Illinois: Open Seat: Roland Burris - D retiring Projection Toss Up

Indiana: Incumbent: Evan Bayh - D Projection Leans Democratic Hold

US Senate 2010 Projection Update Jan 2010

Other projection sites:
Election Projection 2010
CQ Politics Senate Map

Alabama (Richard Shelby - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Alaska (Lisa Murkowski - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Arizona (John McCain - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln - D) Inc. Toss Up
California (Barbara Boxer - D) Inc. Likely Dem
Colorado (Michael Bennet - D) Inc. Toss Up
Connecticut (D) Open Safe Dem
Delaware (D) Open Leans GOP Pick Up
Florida (R) Open GOP Hold
Georgia (Johnny Isakson - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Hawaii (Daniel Inouye - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Idaho (Mike Crapo - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Illinois (D) Open Toss Up
Indiana (Evan Bayh - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Iowa (Chuck Grassley - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Kansas (Sam Brownback - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Kentucky (R) Open Toss Up
Louisiana (David Vitter - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Maryland (Barbara Mikulski - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Missouri (R) Open Toss Up
Nevada (Harry Reid - D) Inc. GOP Gain
New Hampshire (R) Open Toss Up
New York (Chuck Schumer - D) Inc. Dem Hold
New York (Kirsten Gillibrand - D) Inc. Dem Hold
North Carolina (Richard Burr - R) GOP Hold
North Dakota (D) Open GOP Gain
Ohio (R) Open Toss Up
Oklahoma (Tom Coburn - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Oregon (Ron Wyden - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter - D) Inc. Toss Up
South Carolina (Jim DeMint - R) Inc. GOP Hold
South Dakota (John Thune - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Utah (Bob Bennett - R) Inc. GOP Hold
Vermont (Patrick Leahy - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Washington (Patty Murray - D) Inc. Dem Hold
Wisconsin (Russ Feingold - D) Inc. Dem Hold

Sunday, January 17, 2010

A look at the Massachusetts Special Election.

Here at two charts that demonstrate the dire straits that Democratic Senate Candidate Coakley is in.

From the intrade markets and the polls it sure looks like this race is going to go to the GOP. What an amazing change of fortune for the Democratic Party. Looks like the filibuster proof majority is about to become a part of history.

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Jan 2010 Election Forecast Update

Well, as we said about two months ago, Bill Ritter will not be the next Governor of Colorado. We are going to go ahead right now and label his administration as a Failure, that is right, your first and last source for Bill Ritter's place in history. Think of him as the Jimmy Carter or Richard Nixon of Colorado. We aren't anti-Democrat, our only goal is to predict the outcome of elections, at least for a few more days, so lets dive right into our new projections.

Federal Offices:

US Senate: Barely Republican Pickup.

You can't blame Democratic Senator Bennet. Really, you have to respect him, he said that he would vote for a health care bill even if it costs him his job. Looks like it will.

CD-1 (Denver): Safe Democrat
CD-2 (Boulder): Safe Democrat
CD-3 (Western Slope): Likely Democrat
CD-4 (North and East Colorado): Likely GOP Pickup
CD-5 (Colorado Springs): Safe GOP
CD-6 (Southern Denver Suburbs): Safe GOP
CD-7 (Northern Denver Suburbs): Leans Democrat

As we see it now, everything in Colorado depends on the national environment in a few months (duh!). If the GOP picks up a large number of seats then CD 7 and 3 will become competitive, if the GOP underperforms normal midterm patterns then only CD-4 will switch. Much remains to be seen, but we will call it now, CD-4 is gone for the Democrats.

Local Races:

Governor: Toss Up.

Bill Ritter dropping out and Hickenlooper jumping in make this race competitive again. However, 2010 isn't 2006. Hickenlooper has never run for office outside of Denver. He has never been vetted by true opposition. We think that we can remember great outrage years ago when we published a photo of Mayor Hickenlooper with a "cross dresser." We haven't bothered to look for that photo, but we are certain that voters won't see Mayor Hickenlooper as an outsider, he has been a part of everyday life in Colorado for the past decade.

Secretary of State, Attorney General and Treasurer. Forecasts won't be up until Summer.

State Senate: Likely Democratic Control

The math is just too difficult for the GOP as the numbers stand right now. We are confident that our model can predict these races; money will be the key, if you see huge GOP advantages in some competitive districts, look for our forecast to change.

State House: Leans Democratic Control

The math is actually better for the GOP here.

We are not as down on the Mile High State's Democrats as a recent LA Times story where the Times stated that "Analysts think Democrats could even lose their majorities in the Legislature."
We haven't met anyone who is not puffing some Medical Marijuana who thinks that.