Tuesday, October 12, 2004

Technology Tuesday.

Taken from Lee Gomes "Portals" 10/04/2004 in the Wall Street Journal.

"What is it about the future that leaves us unable to ever quite guess how its going to turn out? The question comes up, this time, because of the recent, much discussed ascent of Web logs, or blogs. The blogging phenomenon illustrates how some very smart people ended up being both very right and very wrong about a future just beyond the horizon.

A year ago, blogs -outside of the small circle of people who actually wrote and read them- were regarded as the daily diaries of peole with no real lives to chronicle in the first place. No more...For historians of technical predictions, blogs are noteworthy because of what the reveal aobut the evolution of something called XML.

XML stands for Extensible Markup Language. It's basically a format that two computers can use to exchange information.

Five or so years ago, XML was going to be technology's Next Big Thing. If you remember Microsoft's .Net initiative...XML was the catalyst the wold enable .Net...

Fast forword now to something called RSS, or Really Simple Syndication, with is a technology that bloggers use to, in a manner of speaking, broadcast their writing throughout the Internet. RSS, it turns out, is actually a kind of XML.

Because of blogging, RSS is very hot right now, and it's spreading quickly...Last week, Yahoo gave RSS a big embrace: If something is available in RSS, you'll be able to put it on your My Yahoo page.

In other words, thanks to blogs, XML-in the form of RSS- has finally arrived...

One issue to watch with the current growth spurt of RSS is what it will do to traditional Web economics. For example, some political junkies...spend much of their time these days using Web site called Bloglines to follow election oriented blogs. Because of its felicitous use of RSS technology, Bloglines will often let you read all of the entries from some very popular blogs without leaving the bloglines site- in other words, without vistiong each blogs Web pages individually.

What will happen when bloggers realize that RSS may lead to fewer eyeballs at their sites?

Monday, October 11, 2004

Delphi on Colorado State-Wide Referenda.

MHD is currently working on a universal model to predict these state wide issues. If I can finish tweaking it this week, you should see something much like the CAPM that you may have met in Biz School.

If you see any links missing, or want me to add your site, tell me. If you know of any poll I may have missed, tell me.

Amendment 34. Pro side Committee to Take Back Our Property Rights . Con side Coloradans for Responsible Reform.

Past Poll Results:


Amendment 35. Pro side Citizens for a Healthier Colorado. Against a group called "Protect Our Constitution, Vote No on 35" which doesn't seem to have a website and The Independece Institute a libertarian think tank which opposes most tax increases.

Past Poll Results:


Amendment 36. Pro side All Votes Matter. Against Coloradoans Against a Really Stupid Idea and Tyroblog's 86 36, a blog devoted to defeating Amendment 36.

Past Poll Results:


Amendment 37. Pro side Coloradans for Clean Energy. Against Citizens for Sensible Energy Choices.

Past Poll Results:


Ref. 4-A "FasTracks". Not state wide, only in Denver area. Pro side FasTracks Yes!. Against Taxpayers Against Congestion and The Independence Institute.

Past Poll Results:

FasTracks Yes! released a internal poll from the same time as the Denver Metro Chamber's Hill poll, but until some internals are available, I'm loath to add it.

Delphi on Colorado, Monday updates.

This week we will finish our links to Colorado Races.

Monday: Links and averages for state-wide issues.

Tuesday: Technology Tuesday and finish links to State Legislative Races. We will have links to all State Senate Races. Our links to State House Races will only be for battle-ground districts.

Wednesday: Wictory Wednesday and our new and improved models for state-wide issues and for the congressional district races.

Thursday: Technology Thursday and predictions for all State Senate races.

Friday: Financial Friday. We find great articles on personal finance, you use them to increase your wealth.

Friday, October 08, 2004

Updated Presidential and Senate Predictions.

We have added Real Clear Politics to our electoral vote average. The new averages (dividing tossups in half) gives Bush a lead of 283 electoral votes and Kerry trails with 255 electoral votes. The only site to update its figures was Electoral-Vote.com, its old figures were Bush-285 and Kerry-232 with 17 electoral votes tied. Electoral-Vote.com now has Kerry leading 280-239 with 19 electoral votes tied.

Our old figures were Bush-293, Kerry 245 on 10/6/2004. Bush has lost 10 EV in the last two days.

We have also updated our Colorado Senate race figures. Coors now leads Salazar 50.33% to 48.66%. The new USA Today poll, which shows Salazar with a massive lead has pulled the race into basically a dead-heat.

Our old figures were Coors 53.2%, Salazar 46.6% on 9/28/2004.

Delphi on the Second Presidential Debate.

With Bush and Kerry dead-locked in the polls here in Colorado, scores of CU students have decided that the best way to deal with the close election is the have some fun.

Your correspondent will (at great personal risk being a Republican in Boulder) attend several of these "Debate" parties. It seems that a new drinking game has sprung up around the presidential race. Every time either candidate says "Iraq" everyone has to take a drink. From what I understand, that doesn’t mean a sip, but a shot or an entire beer.

Hopefully I can avoid being in any house when foreign policy comes up, but if I am, I'll be taking pictures to document the student's rebellion against the administration's crackdown on drinking, and the constant badgering from liberals and conservatives alike, ie "Are you registered to vote?"

Cross posted at Polstate.com, which also has a open thread for the debate, feel free to go over there and debate the debate, nonpartisan site with lots of traffic.

Thursday, October 07, 2004

Wictory Wednesday. Focus on SD 19.

State Senate District 19 (Westminster and Arvada) is our featured legislative race this cycle. It pits incumbent Sue Windels (D) against Jessica Corry (R).

This district was, until four years ago, represented by the solidly conservative Jim Congrove, who now is running for Jeffco Commissioner after defeating a rare Republican RTD Director, Wally Pulliam.

Jessica Corry works at the Independence Institute, a libertarian think tank in Golden that has been the spring board for such Colorado conservative icons as Jon Caldara, Mike Rosen, Tom Tancredo and Bill Armstrong. Jessica heads up the Campus Accountability Project, an effort “to serve as an educational resource on free speech, ideological diversity, and racial discrimination, and to operate as a watch dog, seeking to ensure that universities are observing the individual rights of faculty, staff, and students.”

She faces Sue Windels (who Joe will be interviewing in a week or so for balance). Senator Windels, who won victory last time by less than the margin of the Libertarian candidate, has not voted like the moderate she would need to be to keep the seat, instead she has voted like a true liberal. The GOP won her State House seat back when she went to the Senate, its time to bring this seat back to the GOP.

MHD chose this seat because it is the home of the most vulnerable incumbent. It also represents the huge difference in ideology between the two candidates. Windels has raised $80,551 so far. Her top five donors are the DSCF Democratic Senate C Fund: $5,000, JCEA-PAC Small Donor Committee:$2,000, Colorado Professional Firefighters SDC: $2,000, Pipefitters Local 208: $2,000, Colorado AFL-CIO Nonparisian: $2,000. A lot of Union money and small donor committee money coming in here.

Corry has so far raised $42,860, her top five contributors are herself: $8,000, Steve Durham: $400, Chris Drummond: $200, Joe Smith: $200, Linda Corry: $200. Besides herself, her largest contributors are small personal donations. She needs help if she is going to win. Donate here. I’ve put together four volunteers who are going to help me walk her district with her. I challenge everyone who reads this and is a GOP partisan, donate $40 dollars to Jessica, then e-mail me or post your donation. Lets set a goal of $400. I just need nine other people to pitch in to reach that goal.

Oh, and trust me, Joe is working on something for our liberal readers, Colorado Republicans have got to get their butts in gear; we’re slacking.

Wednesday, October 06, 2004

Delphi on the Presidential Race.

Final Update: 11/01/2004

Our final average for the 2004 election is in. Bush should narrowly beat Kerry 273 to 265. In the popular vote, the averages predict a small Bush victory of 49.66% to Kerry's 48.35%.

My personal projection, it won't be that close. We will know by about midnight mountain time who the winner is.

Update: 10/11/2004. Three updates today. Election Projection is now forecasting a narrow Bush win. Bush 274, Kerry 264. Electoral-Vote.com is forecasting a Kerry win with Kerry getting 280 electoral votes and Bush getting 254 (NH is a toss-up). Real Clear Politics is forecasting Bush getting 264, Kerry getting 220, with 54 electoral votes in tossup states.

The Crystal Ball and Federal Review have no updates.

As such the new totals are Bush 274+256+295+284+264+27/5 = 280. Kerry 264+282+243+254+220+27/5 = 258.

On 10/6/2004 the average was Bush 293, Kerry 245. Two days later it was Bush 283, Kerry 255. As it stands now, Bush has lost 3 electoral votes since 10/9/04 and Kerry has picked up three.

Original Post: 10/06/2004
MHD isn't even going to try to do the heavy lifting in the Presidential race. Instead, we will update on a regular basis the average electoral college numbers from Election Projection, Electoral-Vote.com, Federal Review and The Crystal Ball. Each site is weighted the same.

If you know of any other sites that deserve to be included in the average, post it, we are slaves to our readers.

This week at MHD.

This week MHD will focus on one very important thing, making the site more user friendly. In the pursuit of this, we will be adding links to nearly all of the candidates in the Colorado legislative races and links to the ballot issues.

Wictory Wednesday will come off as usual.

Thursday will be "Technology Thursday" with some great links to resources that will help you take advantage of the future of radio and cleaning up that messy pile of business cards in your desk drawer.

Sometime during the week we will add in the links to the legislative races, ballot issues and Federal candidates.

Over the weekend we will introduce our new model for predicting races, we still have about a hundred data points to enter, and then we have to teak the model, but by Monday, you should be able to look at predictions for all the Colorado ballot issues and legislative races.

Friday, October 01, 2004

Delphi on the Colorado Legislative Races.

As it stands now the GOP controls Colorado's State Senate by a single vote. This election the Democrats stand to pick up maybe one seat, but they are defending two very competitive seats. It could break either way.

Best Democratic Projection: Dem. 18, Rep. 17.
Best GOP Projection: Rep. 20, Dem. 15.

Current Estimates: Dem. 15-18, Rep. 17-20. Likely outcome: leans GOP.

Interactive Maps: State Senate Districts Outside the Metro Area.
Metro Denver State Senate Districts.

The Colorado House is safe GOP, it would take a major shift (a la Watergate) for the Democratic party to take control of the State House.

State Senate Seat By Seat:

SD 1 Eastern Colorado (R)
No Election
SD 2 Southeastern Colorado (R)
No Election
SD 3 Northwest Pueblo County (D)
No Election
SD 4 Lake, Park, Teller, Douglas Counties and northwestern El Paso County (Leans Rep)
Jim Miller (D) $31,055 vs. Tom Weins $45,235(R)
SD 5 South Central Colorado (R)
No Election
SD 6 Southwestern Colorado (D)
No Election
SD 7 Mesa County (R)
No Election
SD 8 Northwestern Colorado (Weak Rep)
Inc. Jack Taylor $40,080(R) vs. Jay Fetcher $69,381(D)
SD 9 Northern El Paso County (R)
No Election
SD 10 Eastern El Paso County (Strong Rep)
Inc. Ron May (R) unopposed
SD 11 Central Colorado Springs (R)
No Election
SD 12 Southern El Paso County (Strong Rep)
Inc. Andy McElhany (R) vs. Robert Herzfeld (Lib.) no Dem.
SD 13 Most of Weld County (R)
No Election
SD 14 Ft. Collins (Toss-up)
Bob Bacon $161,098(D) vs. Ray Martinez $1,425(R)
SD 15 Larimer County except Ft. Collins (R)
No Election
SD 16 North central mountains (D)
No Election
SD 17 Louisville, Lafayette (Toss-up)
Brandon Shaffer $117,421(D) vs. Sandy Hume $68,065(R)
SD 18 Boulder (Safe Dem)
Inc. Ron Tupa (D) vs. Krista Poch (R)
SD 19 Arvada, Westminster (Weak Dem)
Inc. Sue Windels $115,701(D) vs. Jessica Corry $59,425(R)
SD 20 Golden, Wheat Ridge (D)
No Election
SD 21 Lakewood (Leans Dem)
Inc. Deanna Hanna $125,858(D) vs. Tori Merritts Unknown(R)
SD 22 Southern Jefferson County (R)
No Election
SD 23 Southern Weld County (Leans Rep)
Shawn Mitchell $39,345(R) vs. Curt Darius Williams $10,334(D)
SD 24 Federal Heights (D)
No Election
SD 25 Adams County (Leans Dem)
Inc. Stephanie Takis (D) vs. Kevin Blount (R)
SD 26 Englewood, Littleton (Leans Rep)
Inc. Jim Dyer $15,584(R) vs. Jared Ingwalson (D)
SD 27 Eastern Arapahoe County (Leans Rep)
Inc. Nancy Spence $36,245(R) vs. Lisa Love $2,476(D)
SD 28 Southern Aurora (Toss-up)
Inc. Bruce Cairnes $61,210(R) vs. Suzanne Williams $136,991(D)
SD 29 Northen Aurora (Safe Dem)
Inc. Bob Hagedorn (D) vs. Mike Martin (R)
SD 30 Parker, Highlands Ranch (R)
No Election
SD 31 Central, Northwest Denver (Safe Dem)
Inc. Jennifer Veiga unopposed
SD 32 South Denver (Safe Dem)
No Election
SD 33 Northeast Denver (Safe Dem)
Inc. Peter Groff unopposed
SD 34 West Denver (D)
No Election
SD 35 Southeast Denver (Safe Dem)
Inc. Ken Gordon (D) vs. Ron Olson (R)

State House Seat By Seat:

Use these interactive maps to check on each district.

State House Districts Metro Denver North of Hampden Ave. House Districts 1-9, 22-24, 26, 27, 29, 32, 34, 35, 41 and 42.

State House Districts Southern Front Range, Pueblo to Hampden Ave. House Districts 14-18,20, 21, 25, 28, 36-39, 44 and 47.

State House Districts Northern Front Range, 120th Ave to Wyoming. House Districts 10-13, 31, 33, 48, 51 and 52.

Colorado House Districts Outside of the Front Range. House Districts 65-53, 50, 49, 46, 45, 43, 40, 19.

Delphi on Colorado's Competitive House Races (3rd and 7th)

MHD will be leaving the current predictions up until we have finished constructing a new model some time in the next fortnight. The new model will add a variable for "funding advantage" as a amendment to our current model which is Coloradocentric and leans heavily on prior race results and voter registration numbers.