Thursday, November 18, 2004

What's Next?

As we wait for the final tallies, Me and Joe will be doing an analysis of the Colorado State Legislature elections. We both have an hypothesis that the extra money that the Democrats had in most races made the difference.

When that report becomes available, we will post it here. Look for it some time in Mid-December.

As for MHD. We are working on a Colorado Centric version of the Almanac of American Politics. Hopefully we can sell it to High School civics classes and intro to Political Science students at the University level.

We will be tracking the Colorado State Legislature this year, something that few non-partisan institutions do. Each member will have there group ratings posted, will be given MHD ratings for Economic and Social voting patterns, and we will develope, or more probably just apply, something like the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Basically, you'll know who is the most conservative and most liberal members of the body.

Looking forward, we may be moving to a new site in the coming months, somewhere where we can have interactive maps of the Colorado State House and Senate Districts. We won't be neglecting the 2003 elections, god knows what will show up next year.

I'll be posting regularly at Polstate, look for my posts.

Thursday, November 11, 2004

Il Silencio...MHD pays tribute to our fighting forces.

Originally from the WSJ last Friday...

But its the letters to be opened in the event of a death that are the most difficult to listen to, and at the same time the most tender, the most loving. Wearing a red sweater with a heart shaped U.S. flag knit into the front, Melissa Givens, the widow of Pfc. Jesse A. Givens, reads from a letter he wrote to her and their two sons:

"My family, I never thought that I would be writing a letter like this, I really don't know where to start. I've been getting bad feelings though and well if you're reading this...The happiest moments in my life all dealt with my little family. I will always have with me the small moments we all shared. the moments when you quit taking life so serious and smiled. The sounds of a beautiful boy's laughter or the simple nudge of a baby unborn. Each one of you. You saved me from the loneliness and taught me how to think beyond myself...Don't ever think that since I wasn't around that I didn't love you. You were conceived of love and I came to this terrible place for love...Please understand that I had to be gone so that I could take care of my family...Do me a favor. After you tuck Toad and Bean in, give them hugs and kisses from me. Go outside and look at the stars and count them. Don't forget to smile."

Pfc. Givens, assigned to Second Squadron, Third Armored Calvary Regiment out of Fort Carson, Colorado, died in a tank accident on May 1, 2003. He was 34 years old.

Friday, November 05, 2004

Rocky Mountain Blogger Bash, November 6th.

Come to the Rocky Mountain Blogger Bash this Saturday.

Click here for more information.

Thursday, November 04, 2004

Technology Thursday.

Planning on buying a new computer this holiday season? Ever wondered how to transfer your data from the old PC to the new one? Walter Mossberg has some help for you in today's Wall Street Journal.

The best product that he has found for moving data from one PC to another is Detto IntelliMover. The same company makes a product called Move2Mac that can transfer your data from a PC to a Mac.

If you need to move more than files try Alohabob PC Relocator from Eisenworld. It works for PCs.

Check out the Wall Street Journal's free Personal Technology Website.

Delphi on Election 2004.

Wow, what a great election. Over the next week we will look at the election results and break down how everything came out, basically this much input, that much output.

We almost called the Senate race exactly, (and with such a simple model; Democratic vote percent increases by 3.5% during Prez election cycles, always add 7.5% to GOP vote percent for polling errors, blam you get a net positive of 4% for the GOP candidate) the 2008 race should be great, we are looking at an open GOP seat (Allard won't be running) and a open Prez race.

The House races had no real surprises. Even with Jared Polis, the twenty something internet millionare, pouring money into ads against Beauprez and Musgrave, the Democrats only picked up the 3rd (Walcher surged at the end, but our initial projection was almost spot on, goes to show that you shouldn't tweak a econometric model with soft variables, such as our "surge factor" that pushed the 3rd into the toss-up category. We still called all the races correctly.

The State Senate was within our predicted range. Look for a huge battle in two years to take back the chamber by the GOP. The lesson must be learned that Colorado voters split tickets, they vote for the person, not the party. The GOP cannot afford to underfund their State Senate candidates. Our initial numbers on these races show that the Democrats outspent the GOP by a margin of 2:1, and for that they only gained a cumulative win differential (Dem vote % - GOP vote %) of 1.2%. They will have some massive fights ahead if they hope to keep the State Senate for longer than two years.

The State House was a complete surprise. We forcasted a 2 seat pickup, not a five seat loss. Haven't even started to crunch the numbers. But we are going to find a way to account for all the independent group numbers.

What to look for in 2006, the Governor's seat, State Senate and State House.

Our early projections will start this spring.

Watch for some major gridlock this spring, as the GOP minority and Governor Owens will try to force the Dems to push more radical bills that will be vetoed and used in 2006 as campaign fodder.

Wednesday, November 03, 2004

Colorado Election Results Mixed Bag for GOP, MHD.

The following is cross posted at Polstate where I blogged the election live.

President: Bush (R)
Senate: Salazar (D)
House: out of 7, 3 (D), 3 (R), one to close to call (3rd).

Major Setbacks for GOP in the State Senate, as of this writing GOP may lose control of the State Senate by one vote.

Also in the State House, the unthinkable, a major Democratic coup, Dems knock off at least five GOP seats, may take State House for first time in over a generation.

9:15 CBS Projects Colorado For Bush.
11:00 Rocky Mountain News Projects Salazar the winner of Colorado's Senate Seat.
11:02 Drudge Calls the Election for Bush. GOP Headquarters went wild.

As of midnight.

President: MHD: Bush. Results: Bush (R) 53%, Kerry (D) 46%. 70% reporting.
U.S. Senate: MHD: Salazar (D) 50.3%, Coors (D) 48.3%. Results: Salazar 51%, Coors 48%. 82% reporting.
U.S. House:
District 1: MHD: Degette. Results: Degette (D) 73%, Chicas (R) 24%. 88% reporting.
District 2: MHD: Udall. Results: Udall (D) 63%, Hackman (R) 34%. 54% reporting.
District 3: MHD: Toss-up. Results: Salazar (D) 49%, Walcher (R) 47%. 67% reporting.
District 4: MHD:Musgrave. Results: Musgrave (R) 51%, Matsunaka (D) 44%. 68% reporting.
District 5: MHD: Hefley. Results: Hefley (R) 70%, Hardee (D) 27%. 91% reporting.
District 6: MHD: Tancredo. Results: Tancredo (R) 59%, Conti (D) 38%. 99% reporting.
District 7: MHD: Beauprez. Results: Beauprez (R) 55%, Thomas (D) 42%. 98% reporting.

State Senate: MHD: GOP 17-20, Dems 15-18. Results: GOP 17, Dems 17, Toss-up 1. GOP has lost SD 28, only if Hume wins in SD 17 can they hold the State Senate. As of this writing zero % reporting.

State House: MHD: GOP 39, Dems 26. Results GOP 30, Dems 32, Toss-up 3. Reports coming in over 850 KOA, the GOP may also lose the State House for the first time since Watergate, Dems have picked up HD 18, 29, 31, 61 and 64. HD 48, 50 and 56 are still either to close to call or don't have enough results in. Either way this is a major set back for the Republican State Party.

State Wide Ballot Issues:
Amendment 34 - Developer Lawsuit Reform: MHD:For 36%, Against 64%. Results: For 23%, Against 76%. 83% reporting.
Amendment 35 - Raise Taxes on Cigarettes: MHD:For 55%, Against 45%. Results: For 61%, Against 38%. 83% reporting.
Amendment 36 - Electoral College Reform: MHD:For 25%, Against 75%. Results: For 34%, Against 65%. 83% reporting.
Amendment 37 - Renewable Energy Mandates: MHD:For 46%, Against 54%. Results: For 52%, Against 47%. 80% reporting.
Ref. A: MHD: Pass. Results: For 39%, Against 60%. 80% reporting.
Ref. B: MHD: Pass. Results: For 69%, Against 30%. 80% reporting.

Denver Metro Items.
Ref. 4A (FasTracks): MHD: For 46%, Against 54%. Results: For 58%, Against 41%. 71% reporting.
Ref. 4B (SCFD): MHD: Pass. Results: For 65%, Against 34%. 85% reporting.

State Senate Seat By Seat (Campaign Funds for Select Races)
SD 1 Eastern Colorado (R)
No Election
SD 2 Southeastern Colorado (R)
No Election
SD 3 Northwest Pueblo County (D)
No Election
SD 4 Lake, Park, Teller, Douglas Counties and northwestern El Paso County (Leans Rep)
Jim Miller (D) $31,055 vs. Tom Weins $45,235(R) Projected Winner (R)
SD 5 South Central Colorado (R)
No Election
SD 6 Southwestern Colorado (D)
No Election
SD 7 Mesa County (R)
No Election
SD 8 Northwestern Colorado (Weak Rep)
Inc. Jack Taylor $40,080(R) vs. Jay Fetcher $69,381(D) Projected Winner (R)
SD 9 Northern El Paso County (R)
No Election
SD 10 Eastern El Paso County (Strong Rep)
Inc. Ron May (R) unopposed
SD 11 Central Colorado Springs (R)
No Election
SD 12 Southern El Paso County (Strong Rep)
Inc. Andy McElhany (R) vs. Robert Herzfeld (Lib.) no Dem. Projected Winner (R)
SD 13 Most of Weld County (R)
No Election
SD 14 Ft. Collins (Toss-up)
Bob Bacon $161,098(D) vs. Ray Martinez $1,425(R) Projected Winner (D)
SD 15 Larimer County except Ft. Collins (R)
No Election
SD 16 North central mountains (D)
No Election
SD 17 Louisville, Lafayette (Toss-up)
Brandon Shaffer $117,421(D) vs. Sandy Hume $68,065(R) Projected Winner (Not enough data)
SD 18 Boulder (Safe Dem)
Inc. Ron Tupa (D) vs. Krista Poch (R) Projected Winner (D)
SD 19 Arvada, Westminster (Weak Dem)
Inc. Sue Windels $115,701(D) vs. Jessica Corry $59,425(R) Projected Winner (D)
SD 20 Golden, Wheat Ridge (D)
No Election
SD 21 Lakewood (Leans Dem)
Inc. Deanna Hanna $125,858(D) vs. Tori Merritts Unknown(R) Projected Winner (D)
SD 22 Southern Jefferson County (R)
No Election
SD 23 Southern Weld County (Leans Rep)
Shawn Mitchell $39,345(R) vs. Curt Darius Williams $10,334(D) Projected Winner (R)
SD 24 Federal Heights (D)
No Election
SD 25 Adams County (Leans Dem)
Inc. Stephanie Takis (D) vs. Kevin Blount (R) Projected Winner (D)
SD 26 Englewood, Littleton (Leans Rep)
Inc. Jim Dyer $15,584(R) vs. Jared Ingwalson (D) Projected Winner (R)
SD 27 Eastern Arapahoe County (Leans Rep)
Inc. Nancy Spence $36,245(R) vs. Lisa Love $2,476(D) Projected Winner (R)
SD 28 Southern Aurora (Toss-up)
Inc. Bruce Cairnes $61,210(R) vs. Suzanne Williams $136,991(D) Projected Winner (D)
SD 29 Northen Aurora (Safe Dem)
Inc. Bob Hagedorn (D) vs. Mike Martin (R) Projected Winner (D)
SD 30 Parker, Highlands Ranch (R)
No Election
SD 31 Central, Northwest Denver (Safe Dem)
Inc. Jennifer Veiga unopposed Projected Winner (D)
SD 32 South Denver (Safe Dem)
No Election
SD 33 Northeast Denver (Safe Dem)
Inc. Peter Groff unopposed Projected Winner (D)
SD 34 West Denver (D)
No Election
SD 35 Southeast Denver (Safe Dem)
Inc. Ken Gordon (D) vs. Ron Olson (R) Projected Winner (D)

Monday, November 01, 2004

Final Projections.

President Bush 273, Kerry 265. GOP Hold.
U.S. Senate 52 Republicans, 47 Democrats and 1 Ind. GOP Hold.
U.S. House 234 Republicans, 201 Democrats (including Sanders of Vermont). GOP Hold.
Colorado Senate Salazar (D) 50.3%, Coors (R) 48.3%. Dem Pickup.
Colorado House CD 1(D) Strong Dem, CD 2(D) Strong Dem, CD 3(Toss-up) , CD 4(R) Leans GOP, CD 5(R) Strong GOP, CD 6(R) Strong GOP, CD 7(R) Weak GOP.

Final Projection for the 3rd, a tie of 47%-47%. As such it is a toss-up, but all the momentum is for the GOP.

Delphi on the Colorado State Legislative Races.

State Senate 17-20 Republicans, 15-18 Democrats. Leans GOP.

State House 39 Republicans, 26 Democrats. GOP Hold.

State Wide (Except 4A and 4B) Ballot Issues. (Confidence Levels)
Amendment 34 - Developer Lawsuit Reforms - For 36%, Against 64%. (Landslide)
Amendment 35 - Raise Taxes on Cigarettes - For 55%, Against 45%. (Weak)
Amendment 36 - Reforming Colorado's Electorial College Vote - For 25%, Against 75%. (Landslide)
Amendment 37 - Renewable Energy Mandates - For 46%, Against 54%. (Weak)
FasTracks (Ref. 4A) - For 46%, Against 54%. (Weak)
SCFD (Ref. 4B) - For , Against . (Landslide)
Ref. A - Pass (Landslide)
Ref. B - Pass (Landslide)