Wednesday, August 23, 2006

New SUSA Poll Shows Tie In 7th CD.

A new SUSA poll shows a tie between Democrat Ed Perlmutter and Republican Rick O'Donnell in Colorado's 7th CD.

A link to the poll is available here.

This is important because earlier signs were pointing towards this district leaning much more Democratic than it did when Congressman (and Gubernatorial Candidate) Bob Beauprez (R) won it in 2002 and 2004.

Here is a quick abstract of the poll:

O'Donnell (R) 45% Perlmutter (D) 45% Undecided 6%

Interesting notes include the fact that a Green Party Candidate and a Libertarian both are polling at 2%.

This poll will not cause us to move this race from Leans Dem. The reason is because the survey sample was 44% Republican. We need to see more polls before we will move this race.

Monday, August 21, 2006

Is GOP Candidate O'Donnell In Trouble in CD-07?

The market prices over at has the Republican Candidate for Colorado's 7th Congressional District rated as a severe underdog.

The market opened in April with a 50-50 price structure. Almost immediately the market went to 55-45 in favor of the Democratic candidate (and this was before we even knew who would win the primary).

Ed Perlmutter (D) a former State Senator won the Democratic primary and is now considered the favorite to win the district. GOP candidate Rick O'Donnell avoided a primary. No polls are available as of right now. A chart of the price for a futures contract for a Perlmutter victory is available over at

Current odds on the GOP holding this seat are 2/11 or about 18% according to the market.

This has caused us to move this race from a Toss-Up to Lean Democrat.

Here are some campaign finance numbers from Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball:
Ed Perlmutter - Democrat - Second Quarter Raised: $300,110.58 | Cash on Hand: $515,009.05

Rick O'Donnell - Republican - Second Quarter Raised: $307,895.91 | Cash on Hand: $855,970.43

Sunday, August 20, 2006

State Senate Homepage updated.

The Colorado State Senate Homepage has been updated. Its now more detailed and it keeps getting better. As of now we only see eight seats that are competitive, that list could widen but will probably dwindle down to one or two.

During the next week we will be focusing on the State Senate, we will try and put up details for every race such as registration numbers, campaign donations, links to candidate websites etc...

Maybe, just maybe we will get a map up.

Thursday, August 17, 2006

Updated odds for control of Congress after 2006. (8/18/2006)

Here are the updated odds for the GOP to keep control of the US House and Senate this fall as taken from

US House 44.8%.

Democrats now favored to take control of US House.

US Senate 81.0%.

The GOP is favored to keep control of the US Senate.

A link to the GOP06 page is available here.

Rising Tide: Can the Democrats Take the Majority of Colorado's House Delegation.

It is hard to believe but the GOP enjoyed a 5-2 majority in Colorado's US House Delegation as recently as two years ago. The Democratic Party is definitely waxing here in the Centennial State as they move to take a 4-3 lead in the delegation this year.

Here is how it breaks down.

HD-1 (City and County of Denver) Safe Dem
HD-2 (Boulder and Central Mountains) Safe Dem
HD-3 (Western Slope) Crystal Ball says Leans Dem; Cook Report says Likely Dem PVI R+6
HD-4 (Eastern Plains) Crystal Ball says Likely GOP; Cook Report says Likely GOP PVI R+9
HD-5 (Colorado Springs) Safe GOP (OPEN)
HD-6 (Southern Denver Suburbs) Safe GOP
HD-7 (Western and Eastern Suburbs) Toss Up according to both Cook and the Ball PVI D+2 (OPEN)

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Colorado Governor 2006 (updated 08/15/2006)

Our most recent update on the Gubernatorial Race is available here.

Monday, August 14, 2006

Election Overview

Here is a quick snapshot of Colorado's political landscape:

At the top of the ticket is a Governor's race that is currently leaning Democratic. It seems that after eight years of Republican leadership the state may be leaning towards Bill Ritter and change.

There will be an update on the Governor's race up tomorrow, with appropriate links. Currently Larry Sabato over at the Crystal Ball has the race listed as Leans Dem and The Cook Political Report has the race as a TOSS UP.

The other state-wide races for Treasurer, Sec. of State etc... should all go Republican, I haven't seen any polling or fundraising numbers that make it look like the Dems are competitive on any of these seats.

The legislature is far more difficult to predict. Even though a swarm of Conservative Republicans won in Tuesday's primary it doesn't look like any of those seats are likely Democratic pickups. Ramey Johnson (R) managed to win her primary for House District 23...a moderate Republican that could easily beat the underwhelming Gwen Green. Even though Green beat her in 2004 by a few dozen votes, it seems that the GOP circular firing squad may sit this one out, and Johnson gets to run as that most endangered of species...the moderate Republican.

As it stands now it appears that the GOP has about a 50% chance of winning the State House.

The State Senate is a far harder pickup for the GOP. Look for the Dems to hold the Senate and maybe even pick up a seat.

I'll have new legislative projections up over the course of the next fortnight.

National projections will follow after that.