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Current Projection: Democrats gain 6 seats. Results D-57 R-43
The elite eight most competitive Senate Races:
Races are listed by how competitive they are based upon Intrade probabilities:
(1) Previous Rank (4)
Alaska: Stevens (R) inc vs. Begich (D) Intrade gives Begich a 50% probability of winning. This race has been all over the map, in April Begich went from a probability of winning in the mid 30% up to 60%. During the last few weeks the race has tightened up again.
Average of the polls shows Begich leading Stevens 46.75% to 42.75%.
Pollster page for Stevens vs. Begich.
Alaska Intrade page here.
Democrat pickup.
(2) Previous Rank (2)
Louisiana: Landrieu (D) inc vs. Kennedy (R) Intrade gives Landrieu a 55% probability of winning.
Average of the polls shows Kennedy trailing Landrieu 41.67% to 44.67%.
Intrade Louisiana page here.
Pollster page for Kennedy vs. Landrieu.
No change in party control.
(2) Previous Rank (3)
Minnesota: Coleman (R) inc vs. Franken (D) Intrade gives Coleman a 55% probability of winning.
Average of the polls shows Coleman beating Franken 49.8% to 44%.
Intrade Minnesota page here.
Pollster page for Coleman vs. Franken.
No change in party control.
(4) Previously not ranked.
North Carolina: Dole (R) inc vs. Hagen (D) Intrade gives Dole a 57.5% probability of winning.
Average of the polls shows Dole leading Hagen 47.7% to 44.5%.
Intrade NC page here.
Pollster page for Dole vs. Hagen.
No change in party control.
(5)Previous Rank (6)
Colorado: Open Udall (D) vs. Schaeffer (R) Intrade gives Udall a 60% probability of winning.
Average of the polls shows Udall beating Schaffer 46.8% to 41.5%.
Intrade Colorado page here.
Polls for Schaeffer vs. Udall.
Democrat pickup.
(6) Previous Rank (1)
Mississippi: To replace Trent Lott. Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D) Intrade gives Musgrove a 63% probability of picking up Trent Lott's former seat in this special election.
The average of the polls shows Wicker edging Musgrove 44.7% to 44%. Pollster's Mississippi special election page is here.
Intrade's Mississippi Special page is here.
Democrat pickup.
(7) Previously Not Ranked
Oregon: Smith (R) inc vs. Merkley (D). Intrade gives Smith a 64.2% probability of retaining his seat this election.
Average of the polls shows Smith beating Merkley 44.9% to 42.4%. Polster page for Smith vs. Merkley is here.
Intrade page for Oregon is here.
No change in party control.
(8)Previous (7)
New Mexico: Open Udall (D) vs. Pearce (R) or Wilson (R) Intrade gives Udall a 70% probability of winning.
Average of the polls shows Udall beating Pearce 55.5% to 37.4% and Udall beating Wilson 58.9% to 35.6%.
Polls for Udall vs. Wilson and for Udall vs. Pearce.
Intrade NM page here.
Democrat pickup.
No longer in the Elite eight, but worth of note due to party change:
New Hampshire: Sununu (R) inc vs. Shaheen (D) Intrade gives Shaheen a 67.5% probability of winning.
Pollster has the average of the polls showing Shaheen beating Sununu 49.7% to 40.2%.
Pollster Poll Average
Democrat pickup.
Virginia: Open Gilmore (R) vs. Warner (D) Intrade gives Warner a 82.5% probability of winning.
Pollster is showing Warner beating Gilmore 55.4% to 37.6%.
Pollster Poll Average
Democrat pickup.
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