Saturday, February 23, 2008

US Senate Projection 2008

Update September 02, 2008. D-56 R-44

Update July 22, 2008 D-57 R-43

Update July 11, 2008 D-57 R-43

Update June 24, 2008 D-57 R-43

Update June 20, 2008 D-57 R-43

Update June 1, 2008 D-57 R-43

Update April 30, 2008 D-56 R-44

Elite Eight

Politics Nation Top Ten US Senate Races.

Update March 27, 2008. D-54 R-46

Update March 8, 2008. D-55 R-45

Original Post:

As things stand right now Mile High Delphi is projecting that the Democrats will pick up 4-5 seats in the US Senate.

Here is a look at the races in which we project Democratic gains.

New Hampshire is a state that is quickly changing from Republican to Democrat. Republican Senator John Sununu barely beat former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen six years ago, 51 to 46 percent. During the 2006 midterm elections both Republican congressmen lost their reelection campaigns. Look for the Democrats to continue their gains in New Hampshire.

Virginia is traveling down the same path as New Hampshire, albeit at a much more moderate pace. What was once a reliable Republican state has become a competitive battlefield for the GOP. Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner is certainly the favorite against Republican former Governor Jim Gilmore.

Colorado is another one of those moderating red states. While Democratic Presidential nominees have a hard time winning in Colorado, the state's congressional delegation has swung from seven Republicans (including both Senators) and two Democrats to five Democrats and four Republicans. The State Legislature, after basically forty years of Republican control has now swung to large Democrat majorities. The Democratic Governor Bill Ritter is popular. Democratic Congressman Mark Udall looks poised to take Republican Senator Wayne Allard's open Senate seat. The GOP has nominated former congressman Bob Schaffer. Schaffer represents the most conservative elements of a party that has lost touch with the Centennial State.

New Mexico is trending Democrat, but barely. The retirement of Republican Senator Pete Domenici has created a situation where the entire House delegation has thrown their hats into the ring. As things stand right now Democratic congressman Tom Udall looks like the most likely winner.

Minnesota is a toss-up. Moderate Republican Norm Coleman is still waiting to see if he will face Comedian Al Franken or Mike Ceresi.

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