Thursday, September 11, 2008

US Senate Projection Update 11 September 2008

Here is a look at the elite eight closest Senate Races:

Alaska: Leans Democratic Pickup
Colorado: Leans Democratic Pickup
Louisiana: Leans Democratic Hold
Minnesota: Republican Leaning Toss Up
Mississippi Special: Leans Republican Hold
New Hampshire: Democrat Favored Pickup
North Carolina: Republican Leaning Toss Up
Oregon: Leans Republican Hold

Virginia and New Mexico are such likely Democratic pickups that they are no longer on our elite eight seats to watch but they are worth a mention.

Our projection as it stands now: Democrats (Including Lieberman and Sanders) 56 Republicans 44.

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

Elite Eight Detail.

Races where we forecast party change:

New Hampshire: Sununu (R) inc vs. Shaheen (D)

Pollster Poll Average

Virginia: Open Gilmore (R) vs. Warner (D)

Pollster Poll Average

New Mexico: Open Udall (D) vs. Pearce (R)

Pollster Poll Average.

Colorado: Open Udall (D) vs. Schaeffer (R)

Polls for Schaeffer vs. Udall.

Alaska: Stevens (R) inc vs. Begich (D)

Pollster page for Stevens vs. Begich.

Races where we forecast no party change but competitive races:

Louisiana: Landrieu (D) inc vs. Kennedy (R)

Pollster page for Kennedy vs. Landrieu.

Minnesota: Coleman (R) inc vs. Franken (D)

Pollster page for Coleman vs. Franken.

Mississippi: To replace Trent Lott. Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D)

Pollster Page for Wicker vs. Musgrove.

North Carolina: Dole (R) inc vs. Hagan (D)

Pollster Page for Dole vs. Hagen.

Oregon: Smith (R) inc vs. Merkley (D)

Pollster Page for Smith vs. Merkley.

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