Saturday, February 23, 2008

US Senate Projection 2008

Update September 02, 2008. D-56 R-44

Update July 22, 2008 D-57 R-43

Update July 11, 2008 D-57 R-43

Update June 24, 2008 D-57 R-43

Update June 20, 2008 D-57 R-43

Update June 1, 2008 D-57 R-43

Update April 30, 2008 D-56 R-44

Elite Eight

Politics Nation Top Ten US Senate Races.

Update March 27, 2008. D-54 R-46

Update March 8, 2008. D-55 R-45

Original Post:

As things stand right now Mile High Delphi is projecting that the Democrats will pick up 4-5 seats in the US Senate.

Here is a look at the races in which we project Democratic gains.

New Hampshire is a state that is quickly changing from Republican to Democrat. Republican Senator John Sununu barely beat former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen six years ago, 51 to 46 percent. During the 2006 midterm elections both Republican congressmen lost their reelection campaigns. Look for the Democrats to continue their gains in New Hampshire.

Virginia is traveling down the same path as New Hampshire, albeit at a much more moderate pace. What was once a reliable Republican state has become a competitive battlefield for the GOP. Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner is certainly the favorite against Republican former Governor Jim Gilmore.

Colorado is another one of those moderating red states. While Democratic Presidential nominees have a hard time winning in Colorado, the state's congressional delegation has swung from seven Republicans (including both Senators) and two Democrats to five Democrats and four Republicans. The State Legislature, after basically forty years of Republican control has now swung to large Democrat majorities. The Democratic Governor Bill Ritter is popular. Democratic Congressman Mark Udall looks poised to take Republican Senator Wayne Allard's open Senate seat. The GOP has nominated former congressman Bob Schaffer. Schaffer represents the most conservative elements of a party that has lost touch with the Centennial State.

New Mexico is trending Democrat, but barely. The retirement of Republican Senator Pete Domenici has created a situation where the entire House delegation has thrown their hats into the ring. As things stand right now Democratic congressman Tom Udall looks like the most likely winner.

Minnesota is a toss-up. Moderate Republican Norm Coleman is still waiting to see if he will face Comedian Al Franken or Mike Ceresi.

Sunday, February 17, 2008

Electoral vote projection 2008.

Intrade Futures for McCain winning.

September 16, 2008 Update. D 273 R 265

September 9, 2008 Update. D 273 R 265

September 1, 2008 Update. D 293 R 245

August 6, 2008 Update. D 311 R 227

July 27, 2008 Update. D 311 R 227

July 18, 2008 Update. D 322 R 216

July 08, 2008 Update. D 322 R 216

June 24, 2008 Update. D 322 R 216

June 18, 2008 Update. D 306 R 204.

April 28, 2008 Update. D 234 R 240 Toss Up 64.

Dirty Dozen Most Competitive States.

April 13, 2008 Update. D 259 R 240 Toss up 39.

March 28, 2008 Update. D 284 R 216 Toss up 38 No change from last update.

March 8, 2008 Update. D 284 R 216 Toss up 38 Democrats lost 52 electoral votes from last update. Republicans gained 14 electoral votes from last update. 38 electoral votes were moved into the toss up category.

Here is our first projection for the presidential election of 2008.

If the election was held today the Democrat would win with 336 electoral votes to the Republican 202.