Our late April update shows the race for President tightening. If the election were held today neither party would have the 270 votes needed in order to win the presidency. We have the race nearly tied at D-234 R-240 Toss up-64.
Electoral vote projection home page here.
Super Competitive States:
Colorado: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Colorado at 60%.
Pollster.com has the average of Colorado polls for Obama vs. McCain at 43.7-46.7.
We are going to keep Colorado in the Toss Up category.
New Mexico: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning New Mexico at 64%.
Pollster.com has the average of New Mexico polls for Obama vs. McCain at 42.5% to 47%.
We are going to keep New Mexico in the Toss Up category.
Nevada: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Nevada at 53%.
Pollster.com has the average of Nevada polls for Obama vs. McCain at 47-40.
We are going to keep Nevada in the Toss Up category.
Ohio: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Ohio at 62.5%.
Pollster.com has the average of Ohio polls for Obama vs. McCain at 42.7-45.3.
Real Clear Politics has the general election average at 42.7% for Obama and 45.3% for McCain.
We are going to keep Ohio in the Toss Up category.
Competitive States:
Iowa: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Iowa at 66%.
Pollster.com has the average of Iowa polls for Obama vs. McCain at 47.5 to 42.6.
Real Clear Politics has the general election average at 49.3% for Obama and 40% for McCain.
We have Iowa in the Democratic Category.
Minnesota: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Minnesota at 80%.
Pollster.com has the average of Minnesota polls for Obama vs. McCain at 51.1-39.7.
We have Minnesota in the Democratic Category.
New Hampshire: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning New Hampshire at 55%.
Pollster.com has the average of New Hampshire polls for Obama vs. McCain at 46-42.
We are putting New Hampshire's electoral votes in the Toss Up category..
Pennsylvania: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Pennsylvania at 67.5%.
Pollster.com has the average of the Pennsylvania polls for Obama vs. McCain at 42.7 to 45.2.
Real Clear Politics has the race tied at 43%.
We are moving Pennsylvania into the Toss Up Category.
Competitive States:
Arkansas: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Arkansas electoral votes at 26%.
Pollster.com has the average of polls in Arkansas with McCain leading Obama 53% to 30%.
We are giving Arkansas electoral votes to McCain.
Michigan: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Michigan's electoral votes at 78%.
Pollster.com has the average of polls in Michigan showing Obama leading McCain 42.5% to 41.2%.
We are keeping Michigan's electoral votes in the Democratic category.
Missouri: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Missouri's electoral votes at 42.5%.
Pollster.com has the average of polls in Missouri showing McCain beating Obama 52.8% to 39.9%.
We are giving Missouri's electoral votes to McCain.
Virginia: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Virginia's electoral votes at 44.5%.
Pollster.com has the average of polls in Virginia showing McCain beating Obama 52.3% to 43.1%.
We are putting Virginia's Electoral votes in the McCain category.
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