Thursday, September 11, 2008

Electoral vote projection 2008 Intrade home page.

The variable that has the highest weight in our model is the intrade markets. Today marks a milestone, the first time ever that McCain futures are trading for more than Obama futures.

Of course this election isn't a national referendum, it is instead fifty one different elections, and the popular vote has no meaning what so ever, so our current projection is still favoring Obama, but if Colorado flips into the McCain column than McCain will take the lead in our projection for the first time also.

If you hate the electoral college and want to go to a national popular vote visit National Popular Vote.

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