Today the Democrats are having primaries in Indiana and North Carolina.
According to Intrade, Hillary Clinton has a 88% probability of winning Indiana. Obama is the favorite in North Carolina with a 94% probability of winning.
Pollster.com has Clinton ahead in Indiana 48.6% to 44.4%. Real Clear Politics mirrors pollster with their poll average at 49% to 44%.
Pollster.com has Obama ahead in North Carolina with 49.6% to 42.3%. Real Clear Politic's average is about the same, with Obama leading Clinton 50% to 42%.
We predict that Obama will win North Carolina and Hillary will win Indiana.
So at the end of the day, the Democratic race will be at the same spot it was before.
Just as an aside, Intrade puts the probability that Obama will be the Democratic nominee at 77.9%. So it looks like these primaries are really much ado about nothing.
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