Sunday, April 20, 2008

Who is going to win the Pennsylvania primary?

Here is our look at the Pennsylvania primary:

Two questions need to be asked, firstly who is going to win and secondly by how much? Conventional wisdom says that Clinton has to win, and that she needs to win by a certain margin in order to continue her challenge to Barack Obama.

The first thing that we always look at is what the futures markets say. The intrade market for the Penn. primary says that Clinton has a 89% probability of winning. That is huge. Clinton is going to win Pennsylvania.

Now the only question is by how much? Here is a link to the pollster page for the Penn. primary. As of right now the poll average is Clinton 48.1% vs Obama 42%. That is a spread of 6.1%. Real Clear Politics has the spread at 5.3%, with Clinton beating Obama 47.6% to 42.3%.

We have seen Clinton consistently overperform her polling numbers this cycle. We put the spread at at least 7%.

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