Sunday, April 30, 2006

Updated Congressional Makeup.

Here is our newest projection for what the makeup of the US House will look like after election day.

Republicans: 220 Net Loss of 12 Seats
Democrats: 215* (Net Gain of 12 Seats, still 3 seats short of majority)

With only three seats to spare this race is officially moved into the toss-up category.

*NJ (13) will remain vacant until a special election in January of 2007, but it is a safe Democratic seat. So we have counted it towards the Democratic total.

Thursday, April 27, 2006

Top of the Ticket and Congressional Odds updated.

We have moved the Colorado Governor's race from the "Leans GOP" category into the "Barely GOP" category.

Larry Sabato has the race listed as a toss-up.

Coloradopols has the race leaning Democratic.

It appears that the GOP will hold the Senate in the fall, but the House could switch parties. Support for the GOP has collapsed since our last update.

We are going to do an analysis over the weekend and give an updated projection on Sunday.

MHD's mission statement:

Mile High Delphi is dedicated to predicting the outcomes of Colorado State elections and United States elections with a 95% accuracy. Not just polling, but honest to god proven econometric models will be used to figure out the winners before the voters can. One Liberal and one Conservative cutting through the mess that is the media to give you the news you need.

Updated odds for control of Congress after 2006.

Back on November 22 we opened our odds for control of Congress by using the probabilities from Tradesports as a proxy. We are going to continue that for the aggregate probabilities, while releasing some calls on individual races on an ad hoc basis.

Here is where things stood on November 22:

Currently the GOP is favored to keep control of both the House and the Senate.

Senate Probability of GOP Control: 74.2% Fractional: 5/14
House Probability of GOP Control: 72.8% Fractional: 4/11

Things have changed somewhat.

Here is a chart of the prices for options on the GOP retaining control of the US Senate:

The current probability of GOP control of the US Senate has actually risen to 79.7%

Things are dramatically different for the US House:

The market at Tradesports only gives the GOP a 53% chance of retaining the US House. That is a dramatic change from the 72% probability they had in November.

Wednesday, April 26, 2006

We are under 200 days until the election, time to get going.

Tomorrow we will start with a new look at the national elections, looks like some major revisions may be needed.

We will then look at the state races, race by race.

Early next week we will release probabilities for each race.