Monday, March 31, 2008

US House 2008 Projection.

This projection is still under a considerable amount of construction. Tradesports doesn't have any US House markets up yet and until the primary season is over we won't even know who the major party candidates are in some districts.

At the end of the day, since this doesn't look like a wave election year, expect the Democrats to pick up 5-10 seats since so many Republicans are retiring.

Friday, March 28, 2008

Electoral Vote Projection Update March 28, 2008

As things stand today, even with the Democratic infighting, our projection holds at D 284, R 216 with 38 toss ups.

Since you need 270 electorial votes to win, we project that the Democrats would win if the election were held today.

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Senate Projection Update Late March 2008

Our current US Senate Projection shows no race in the toss up category (less than 55% probability of winning). We now project that the Democrats will pick up, in order of highest probability, New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado. The Republicans are projected to pick up Louisiana. That is a net gain for the Democrats of three seats for a future Senate make up of D 54 R 46.

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Coming Updates!

It does take a while to get the oracle warmed up. We hate to give her too many questions at once. But this week we are putting her to the test.

Upcoming updates:

New Presidential Projection 03/28
New US Senate Projection 03/27
First US House Projection 03/30
Updated Colorado State Senate Projection 03/31

Recent analysis shows that the race for the White House is tightening. The long Democratic primary seems to be damaging the entire party. We didn't expect to see such tightening until late summer or fall.

Early next month we will put out our national analysis along with an analysis for Colorado. A quick preview: The national parties are frayed, the Republicans into three different factions and the Democrats into two. However the Democratic factions are in open warfare with each other while the Republican factions are sitting back and watching the fratricide. As for Colorado, we will examine the State Democratic party, look at which of the two Democratic factions are strongest here and examine the success of the Democratic leadership and how ballot items are helping the Democrats stay in office.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Update on Competitive State Senate Races.

Four of the most potentially competitive seats that are up for election during this cycle:

District P-Diff $ Diff Win Diff
SD 8 D+4 R+17.5 R+3
SD 17 D+8 N/A N/A
SD 19 R+5.5 D+33.5 D+7.4
SD 26 R+9 R+0 R+2.6

We've chosen to look closely at these races because the incumbents won with less than 55% of the vote in 2004. As we have looked at comparable Senate Districts from 2006 we have seen one huge factor, no Democrat has won a race in a competitive district where the Republican out fundraised them. The same applies for the Republicans. Money is a huge factor in these races. We have a model that takes the effect of the money differential into account, but we won't be making predictions using it until after the primaries.

Saturday, March 08, 2008

Electoral and Senate Updates for March 2008.

If the election were held today, the Democrats would win the Presidency with 284 electorial votes. The GOP would get 216. 38 Electorial votes are toss ups.

Virginia, Nevada, Missouri and Colorado are currently toss ups. We have color coded them to show what party they are leaning toward.

As for the US Senate, our only change is that Minnesota has gone from 50-50 to 52.5% in favor of the GOP.

For a look at our past Presidential Projection click here. Senate projections are here.

Monday, March 03, 2008

Colorado State Senate 2008.

Update July 17, 2008 D 18 R 15 Toss Up 2

The Colorado State Senate (hereto after referred to simply as the “Senate”) is made up of 35 members. Each member is elected to a four year term, and term limits state that no member shall serve more than two terms. Due to appointments and a court ruling a Senator can serve up to ten years, but in the vast majority of circumstances you can group Senators into one of two groups, either a first termer or a last termer. Elections are staggered for the Senate, with 18 seats up during presidential election years and 17 seats up during mid-term elections. The 18 seats that are up during presidential election years will be referred to as Class 1 and the remaining 17 Class 2 seats will be decided during the midterm elections two years later. The Senate is currently made up of only Republicans and Democrats. The Democrats have a five seat majority, meaning that the GOP must win three seats in order to take control of the chamber in 2009.
The Class 2 seats currently are made up of 8 Republicans and 9 Democrats. Of the Class 1 seats up for election during this cycle 14 of the seats are not competitive. Below we list the Senate Districts based upon their “partisan differential.” The P-Diff as we call it is basically either the Democratic or Republican Party’s registration advantage as a percentage.
Before we begin with a look at each Senate District in particular, let’s just do a quick macro view of the political landscape in Colorado. In 2004 the Democratic Party took control of the State Legislature for the first time in forty years. Colorado has moderated greatly since the beginning of Bush 41’s Presidency. All things being equal you would expect that if the registration between the two parties is equal, i.e. the P-Diff is 0, than each party would have an equal chance of winning the district. Today that is not true in Colorado. The “horizon” as we call it is currently somewhere out near R +7. That means that demographically, districts where the GOP has a 7% registration advantage are “toss ups.” As a matter of fact the GOP only holds one Senate District where they have less than a 9% registration advantage, SD 2 in southeast Colorado, which has a P Diff of R +2. Basically, the GOP has to slug it out in order to win districts where it holds single digit registration advantages, while Democrats easily skate to victory in comparable districts. As things stand right now, we only see four competitive districts this cycle, with each party having to defend two seats each. Since the GOP needs three seats to capture control of the Senate we put the probability of the GOP taking control of the Senate at 1%.
Our current projection is Democratic control: R 13-16 D 19-22
Here is a look at the four most competitive districts:
SD 19:
Open. P-Diff R +5.5. Westminster. Formerly held by Sue Windels (D) for eight years.
SD 23:
Open. P-Diff R +9. Broomfield. Shawn Mitchell (R) Running for re-election.
SD 8:
Open. P-Diff R +9. Northwestern Colorado. Formerly held by Jack Taylor (R) for eight years.
SD 14:
Incumbent Bob Bacon (D) is running for re-election. P-Diff R+2.5. Fort Collins.

Update 03/31/2008: This projection is very preliminary, we still have some more research to do and we need to mine a little more data, but if the election were held today the Colorado State Senate could switch control, even though it looks very unlikely. Our range shows that the Senate could go from a five seat Democratic majority to a two seat Republican majority. Most likely, the GOP may pick up one seat.