Current Projection: Democrats gain 5 seats. Results D-56 R-44
The elite eight most competitive Senate Races:
Races are listed by how competitive they are based upon Intrade probabilities:
(1)Mississippi: To replace Trent Lott. Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D) No Polling
Intrade lists the races as 50/50 with no volume.
No change in party control.
(2)Louisiana: Landrieu (D) inc vs. Kennedy (R) Intrade gives Landrieu a 55% probability of winning.
Average of the polls shows Kennedy trailing Landrieu 40.5% to 48%.
Pollster page for Kennedy vs. Landrieu.
No change in party control.
(3)Minnesota: Coleman (R) inc vs. Franken (D) Intrade gives Coleman a 56% probability of winning.
Average of the polls shows Coleman beating Franken 49.3% to 43%.
Pollster page for Coleman vs. Franken.
No change in party control.
(4)Alaska: Stevens (R) inc vs. Begich (D) Intrade gives Begich a 62.5% probability of winning.
Average of the polls shows Begich leading Stevens 46% to 43.5%.
Pollster page for Stevens vs. Begich.
Democrat pickup.
(5)New Hampshire: Sununu (R) inc vs. Shaheen (D) Intrade gives Shaheen a 64% probability of winning.
As of 3/17 the poll average showed Shaheen leading Sununu 49% to 39%.
Pollster Poll Average
Democrat pickup.
(6)Colorado: Open Udall (D) vs. Schaeffer (R) Intrade gives Udall a 64% probability of winning.
Average of the polls shows Udall beating Schaffer 45.5% to 38%.
Polls for Schaeffer vs. Udall.
Democrat pickup.
(7)New Mexico: Open Udall (D) vs. Pearce (R) or Wilson (R) Intrade gives Udall a 75% probability of winning.
Average of the polls shows Udall beating Pearce 54% to 37% and Udall beating Wilson 55% to 38%.
Polls for Udall vs. Wilson and for Udall vs. Pearce.
Democrat pickup.
(8)Virginia: Open Gilmore (R) vs. Warner (D) Intrade gives Warner a 80.5% probability of winning.
As of 3/27 the poll average showed Warner beating Gilmore 56% to 38.5%.
Pollster Poll Average
Democrat pickup.
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