Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Final touches going into Colorado's Election Projection 2006.

We are still wading through the data from the last few elections. Some districts are defying the current model so we are trying to patch those problems up.

We are going to do something that no one else is doing...calling every single election for the state legislature. Others may take the easy route, "Democratic control" or "GOP control," not us. We will predict every single seat.

But first we've gotta finish this pesky model.

Monday, October 30, 2006

New model coming soon, preliminary findings support Democratic gains.

We are working on our second version of our econometric model for the Colorado State Legislature. After the data from 2000 was added we discovered that the model needed some major retooling.

Here are our basic findings as of right now.

Democrats are more "efficient" at getting votes than Republicans in Colorado. All things being equal, if you have a district that is divided evenly between Republicans, Democrats and unaffiliated voters, the Democrat will win 3 out of 4 times. After tonight we will have different regression equations for the last three elections to show how the Democrats have become more efficient.

2004 was a "wave" election for the Democrats. There is still a lot of arguing going on over here, but something changed in Colorado in 2004. The Democrats picked up 7 State House seats (the equivalent of over 50 US House seats). Some of us think that Amendment 27 (campaign finance) is the key, others think that the GOP is more divided than it was before. Nevertheless, by this time tomorrow we should have a new model out, and new predictions for the State House and State Senate.

The Rocky Mountain News has a great story out today on the GOPs slide from power in the Legislature. Check it out here. The one flaw we saw in it, no talk of the power of Amendment 27.

Thursday, October 26, 2006

State House Update 10/26/2006

The Downlow: The magic number for control of the State House is 33. With 65 total seats you need 33 for control. Every seat is up for election every two years, no member can serve more than four two year terms, which makes it easy to break the members down into Freshmen, Sophomores, Juniors and Seniors. The State House is currently made up of 30 Republicans and 35 Democrats. Democrats took control for the first time in 30 years in 2004.

Below is a list of the seats that are up for election this year. They are arranged by likelihood of changing control. None of these races have links, as we add individual District pages to MHD we will update this page. Our current econometric model is woefully inadequate, we will have our 1.2 version out this weekend, until then forgive us for the huge number of toss-ups, we are working on it. Look for an update Monday.

33 needed for control: Delphi Forecasts GOP 28 Dem 37
Incumbent = *
Tossups: 12
HD-17: Mark Cloer* (R) vs. Christine Varney (D)
HD-23: Ramey Johnson (R) vs. Gwen Green* (D)
HD-26: Andy Kerr* (D) vs. Glenn Rhoades (R)
HD-27: Bill Crane* (R) vs. Sara Gagliardi (D)
HD-29: Debbie Benefield* (D) vs. Affie Ellis (R)
HD-33: Bill Berens* (R) vs. Dianne Primavera (D)
HD-50: Dave Owen (R) vs. James Reisberg* (D)
HD-52: John Kefalas (D) vs. Bob McCluskey* (R)
HD-53: Randy Fischer (D) vs. Anne Yeldell (R)
HD-55: Bernie Buescher* (D) vs. Bob Caskey (R)
HD-56: Ken Chlouber (R) vs. Dan Gibbs (D)
HD-59: Joe Colgan (D) vs Ellen Roberts (R)

Leans/Likely Democrat: 8
HD-11: Jack Pommer* (D) vs. Catherine Jarrett (R)
HD-18: Michael Merrifield* (D) vs. Kyle Fisk (R)
HD-30: Darrin Dutcher (R) vs. Mary Hodge* (D)
HD-31: Rex Pierce (R) vs. Judy Solano* (D)
HD-36: Brian Boney (R) vs. Morgan Carroll* (D)
HD-41: Clyde Robinson (R) vs. Nancy Todd* (D)
HD-47: Liane "Buffie" McFadyen* (D) vs. Jeff Shaw (R)
HD-64: John Albright (R) vs. Wesley McKinley* (D)

Leans/Likely Republican: 15
HD-19: Kenneth Barela (D) vs. Marsha Looper (R)
HD-22: Jayson Haberkorn (D) vs. Kenneth Summers (R)
HD-25: Rob Witwer* (R) vs. Michael Daniels (D)
HD-28: James Kerr* (R) vs. Thomas Dittemore (D)
HD-37: Angela Engel (D) vs. Spencer Swalm (R)
HD-38: Matt Dunn (R) vs. Joe Rice (D)
HD-39: David Balmer* (R) vs. Mollie Cullom (D)
HD-40: Debbie Stafford* (R) vs. Matt Bryant (D)
HD-48: Michael Dugan (D) vs. Gleen Vaad (R)
HD-49: Kevin Lundberg* (R) vs Susan Radford (D)
HD-51: Don Marostica (R) vs. Jodi Radke (D)
HD-54: Richard Alward (D) vs. Steven King (R)
HD-57: Andrew Gold (D) vs. Al White* (R)
HD-58: Brian Ahern (D) vs. Ray Rose* (R)
HD-60: Curtis Imrie (D) vs. Tom Massey* (R)

Safe Democrat: 20
HD-1: Jeanne Labuda (D) vs. Aimee Rathburn (R)
HD-2: Mike Cerbo* (D) unopposed
HD-3: Anne McGihon* (D) unopposed
HD-4: Jerry Frangas* (D) vs. Rick Nevin (R)
HD-5: Joel Judd* (D) unopposed
HD-6: Andrew Romanoff* (D) vs. Jeffrey Hecht (R)
HD-7: Terrance Carroll* (D) unopposed
HD-8: Rosemary Marshall* (D) unopposed
HD-9: Alice Borodkin* (D) vs. Jerry Greenheck (R)
HD-10: Alice Madden* (D) unopposed
HD-12: Paul Weissmann* (D) unopposed
HD-13: Claire Levy (D) unopposed
HD-24: Cheri Jahn* (D) unopposed
HD-32: Edward Casso (D) vs. Tracey Snyder (R)
HD-34: John Soper (D) unopposed
HD-35: Ruben Pacheco (R) vs. Cherylin Peniston (D)
HD-42: Michael Garcia (D) unopposed
HD-46: Dorothy Butcher (D) vs. Susan Pelto (R)
HD-61: Kathleen Curry (D) unopposed
HD-62: Rafael Gallegos* (D) vs. John Sandoval (R)

Safe Republican: 10
HD-14: Kent Lambert (R) vs. Karen Teja (D)
HD-15: Bill Cadman (R) vs. Allison Hunter (D)
HD-16: Larry Liston* (R) unopposed
HD-20: Amy Stephens (R) vs. Janet Hejtmaneck (D)
HD-21: Bob Gardner (R) vs. Anna Lord (D)
HD-43: Allen Dreher (D) vs. Frank McNulty (R)
HD-44: Lois Huff (D) vs. Mike May* (R)
HD-45: Linda Constantine (D) vs. Victor Mitchell (R)
HD-63: Pauline Artery (D) vs. Cory Gardner* (R)
HD-65: Jerry Sonnenberg (R) unopposed

Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Midweek Race Update.

With only a fortnight to go before the election here is the skinny on Colorado's biggest political races.

Governor: Real Clear Politics has this race listed as Leans Democrat. We think that Beauprez (R) has at best a 5-10% chance of winning this race. The RCP poll average shows Ritter (D) with a 10.6% lead in the polls. We list this race as Likely Dem.

Other Statewide: NO Changes. A few polls are out, if we see Beauprez running over 15 points behind Ritter we may have to reconsider some of these races.

CO-7: The race for Bob Beauprez's open Congress seat is really the best race in Colorado. Real Clear Politics has this race listed as Leans Democrat. We agree. There is just too great a political headwind for Rick O'Donnell (R) to overcome as of right now. However, if you look at the poll numbers you can see that Ed Perlmutter's (D) lead in the polls has decreased from about 10% in September to 5.7% today. The most recent RD Strategies poll has the race tied at 47-47. Word on the political grapevine is that internal Perlmutter polling has the race tied also. This race is shaping up to be another down to the wire repeat of 2002, where Beauprez beat Mike Feely by 121 votes. We are very close to moving this race to Toss Up if we see a few more close polls and the polling average goes down below 5%.

CO-4: Marilyn Musgrave (R) will beat Angie Paccione (D). Every year a handful of Democratic Billionqires throw millions into beating Musgrave. Paccione, with her bankruptcy's intimate details splashed across the airwaves isn't the candidate to do it. Real Clear Politics has this race listed as #28 on their House List. Musgrave's impressive polling numbers have us listing this race as Likely GOP. Note to the Billionaires, find a Salazar or a Ritter and you can win this seat, make sure they don't have bounced checks for pizza listed in a bankruptcy.

CO-5: The newspapers have wasted a great deal of ink on this race. Lamborn (R) has pulled into a double digit lead over his Democratic opponent. This race is over. List it as Safe GOP.

No other changes in the other Colorado House Seats. Degette (D) will win in CO-1. Udall (D) will win in CO-2. Salazar (D) will win in CO-3. Tancredo (R) will win in CO-6.

We will add links to all state-wide races over the next week.

Tomorrow we will add an update to our State House page modeled after our State Senate page.

We won't be doing any predictions on the state-wide Referenda.

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

State Senate Update 10/18/06

The Downlow: The magic number for control of the State Senate is 18. With 35 total seats you need 18 for control. This year 18 seats are up for election, one is only for a two year term due to a resignation (read below). Seven Republican held seats are not up for election as are ten Democratic seats.

Below is a list of the seats that are up for election this year. They are arranged by likelihood of changing control. Some races have links, our default for each race is the Rocky Mountain News, as we add individual District pages to MHD we will update this page:

18 needed for control: Delphi Forecasts GOP 16 Dem 19
Incumbent = *
SD-5:Lewis Entz* (R) vs. Gail Schwartz (D)
SD-11:Ed Jones* (R) vs. John Morse (D)
SD-21:Berry Boyd* (D) vs. Matt Knoedler (R)

Leans/Likely Democrat:
SD-6:Jim Isgar* (D) vs. Ronald Tate (R)
SD-16:Joan Fitz-Gerald* (D) vs. Marty Neilson (R)
SD-24:Luis Alvarez (R) vs. Lois Tochtrop* (D)
SD-20:Maryanne "Moe" Keller* (D) vs. Dick Sargent (R)

Leans/Likely Republican:
SD-13:Solomon Little Owl (D) vs. Scott Renfroe (R)
SD-07:Dana Barker (D) vs. Joshua Penry (R)
SD-15:Steve Johnson* (R) vs. Jennifer Miller (D)
SD-22:Mike Kopp (R) vs. Paula Noonan (D)

Safe Democrat:
SD-3:Abel Tapia* (D) unopposed
SD-32:Dave Lewis (R) vs. Chris Romer (D)
SD-34:Paula Sandoval (D) unopposed

Safe Republican:
SD-1:James Bowen (D) vs. Greg Brophy* (R)
SD-2:Michael Griego (D) vs. Kenneth Kester* (R)
SD-9:Keely Marrs (D) vs. David Schultheis (R)
SD-30:Ted Harvey (R) vs. Shelly Tokerud (D)

Colorado State Senate Homepage

Tuesday, October 17, 2006

New National Forecast!

It is our opinion that if the election was held today the Democratic Party would win both the House and the Senate.

Sabato's Crystal Ball does a good job of summing up the House and Senate races.

The probability numbers are from tradesports.com, so they need not match our projections.

As it stands now we forecast the Democrats picking up 20 House seats and six Senate seats.

New State Senate Update Tomorrow!

Tomorrow we will publish our new State Senate updates. Look for it in the morning.

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Prediction updates!

Our top of the ticket page has been updated with a short summary of the race as it stands now (Likely Democrat) and a link to Real Clear Politics excellent page on the Gubernatorial Race.

Here is a quick look at the race:

RCP Poll Average: Ritter (D) winning by 16.7%

Tradesports gives Ritter a 91% probability of winning.

Lower down on the ticket:

Secretary of State:

Mike Coffman (R) vs. Ken Gordon (D)

Mike Coffman served as State Treasurer until he left to serve in Iraq's Al Anbar province during the last election (in Iraq). He is an Officer in the Marines.

Ken Gordon is an Democratic State Senator from Denver. He has excellent credentials and has been a beacon of bipartisanship in the State Senate.

We haven't seen any polls, however we have to say that this race currently leans GOP based upon Coffman's service in Iraq. Unless the Beauprez campaign completely implodes and loses by more than 20%, Coffman should pull out a win. Mark this race as leans GOP.

State Treasurer:

Mark Hillman* (R) vs. Cary Kennedy (D)

Mark Hillman faces what could be the toughest statewide race. He is an incumbent but Kennedy is outfundraising him. No real buzz surrounding this race. Toss Up.

Attorney General:

Fern O'Brien (D) vs. John Suthers* (R)

This is the one bright race that the GOP has. Fern can't raise money and the incumbent looks set to easily defeat her. Safe GOP.

Related News Stories:

CO: Republican Candidates Emphasize Geography -Rocky Mountain News

Monday, October 02, 2006

Updated Predictions.

Tomorrow all of our state-wide predictions will be modified, along with the US Congress races. Our economist will have his model done by the end of the week, which will give us a probability of victory for every single state legislative race.

Additionally another contributor will be breaking some news over at polstate.com. It will be cross posted here.

Additionally we may finally have our maps up this weekend.