Friday, August 15, 2008
Electoral Vote Projection Update August 15, 2008
Our new projection shows one state moving from the Obama column to the McCain Column, Nevada.
As it stands right now, we project that Obama will win the Presidency with 306 electoral votes to McCain's 232.
Here is a look at our updated Electoral Vote Race Ratings Chart, Bold states have changed categories.
Toss Up (3): Republican; Indiana and Nevada. Democrat; Virginia.
Leans (5): Republican; Florida. Democrat; Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire and Ohio.
Likely (8): Republican; Missouri, Montana, North Carolinaand North Dakota. Democrat; Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Favored (6) Republican; Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia and South Dakota. Democrat; Maine and Minnesota.
Safe Republican (14): Alabama, Arizona, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.
Safe Democrat (15): California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.
Total Republican States: 26 States and 232 Electoral Votes.
Total Democratic States: 24 States and DC with 306 Electoral Votes.
Breakdown of the changes:
Nevada is still basically in the toss up category, with less than a sixty percent probablity of going one way or the other, it has however moved from the Democratic to the Republican column.
Florida moved from likely to leans Republican.
Missouri, Montana and North Carolina all moved from Republican favored to likely Republican.
Wisconsin fell from Democrat favored to likely Democrat.
South Carolina and Alaska both moved from likely Republican to Republicn Favored.
Arkansas fell from safe Republican to Rebublican favored.
Maine fell from safe Democrat to Democrat favored.
Mississippi rose from Republican favored to safe Republican.
Our Election Projection Homepage is here.