After much thought we have decided to modify our projection. We will no longer have toss up states.
Our electoral vote home page is here.
Our current projection shows Obama beating McCain 306 Electoral votes to 232.
Here is a quick look at the dirty dozen most competitive states:
Leaning Republican:
Nevada 51% probability of voting for McCain.
Missouri 57.5% probability of voting for McCain.
Florida 71% probability of voting for McCain.
Indiana 75% probability of voting for McCain.
Leaning Democrat:
Virgina 50.1% probability of voting for Obama.
New Hampshire 54% probability of voting for Obama.
Ohio 62.9% probability of voting for Obama.
Colorado 67% probability of voting for Obama.
New Mexico 68.5% probability of voting for Obama.
Pennsylvania 75% probability of voting for Obama.
Iowa 76% probability of voting for Obama.
Michigan 77% probability of voting for Obama.
Every other state a better than 80% probability of voting for either one of the candidates.
A closer look at polling, along with a new senate update will be up this week.
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