We have divided these most competitive states into three tiers:
Tier one, super competitive: Nevada, Colorado, Ohio and New Mexico.
Tier two, very competitive: Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Minnesota.
Tier three, competitive: Virginia, Missouri, Arkansas and Michigan.
A quick note, we only use three different variables in creating our models, firstly, futures markets, secondly we look at polling data and lastly we look at prior voting behavior. One other caveat, all of our data assumes that it is a McCain vs. Obama race in the fall.
Our full electoral update will be up by Monday, along with a US Senate update.