Colorado Senate 2008

There already has been a few stories highlighting the coming battle for one of Colorado's two US Senate seats in 2008. Here is how the match is shaping up.

On the Republican side: If Colorado's current senior Senator, Wayne Allard, decides to run again he will not face any significant primary opposition. He has a tiny warchest, less than $125,000. The main action on the Republican side is to ensure that Allard does run again. If Allard decides not to run the primary will be wide open. Early names that have been mentioned are: Governor Bill Owens, former US Representative Scott McInnis (who still has about a million in his campaign account), former US Representative Bob Schaffer and current US Representative Tom Tancredo.

We give an early edge to Allard not running again and to Scott McInnis taking up the Republican flag.

On the Democratic side there is really only one name floating around: US Representative Mark Udall. We don't foresee any real primary competition against him.

Our early overall analysis: Colorado has been trending Democratic over the last four years. A new term has even been coined for these western Democratic voters: Liberaltarians. While Colorado voters have a tendency to split their tickets, we don't think that they will think to themselves "We already have one Democratic Senator, so I'll vote for a Republican." Cast this race as Leans Democrat.

Colorado Election Results.

Here is how Colorado's political landscape looks after the Democratic wave that swept the nation yesterday.

State wide the Democrats picked up two seats:

Bill Ritter won election as Colorado Governor.

Cary Kennedy won election as State Treasurer.

The Republicans kept two state wide seats:

John Suthers won election as AG.

Mike Coffman won election as Secretary of State.

We correctly predicted all of these races.

The Democrats picked up the 7th US House District (Northern Denver Suburbs).

The Democrats now control 4 out of 7 Congressional Districts in Colorado.

We correctly predicted all of those races.

The Democrats also increased their majorities in both houses of the State Legislature.

We correctly predicted every race for the State Senate.

We correctly predicted 59 out of 65 State House races.

Actually we are being hard on ourselves, we really only missed two races, but we thought that the GOP would split the toss-up races, they only won 2 out of 12.

One other thing. We called every US Senate race and we only missed the scope of the Democratic win, off by only about 5-7 seats. Not too bad.

On a state wide basis we easily achieved our hope for 95% accuracy.

Nationally, we kicked butt. A bad election for the Republicans. A good one for us.

Maybe next time we can get every single Colorado State House seat?

Stay tuned...in 2008 we have a Presidential Race and a US Senate race in Colorado. Nobody does anything like this, we're the one.

Top of the Ticket Results:

Governor: Bill Ritter (D)
Sec. of State: Mike Coffman (R)
Treasurer: Too Close To Call Hillman (R) Leads by 5K votes.
Attorney General: John Suthers (R)

Congressional Seats:

CO-1 (Denver) DeGette (D)
CO-2 (Boulder) Udall (D)
CO-3 (Western Slope) Salazar (D)
CO-4 (Eastern Plains) Too Close To Call Musgrave (R) Leading by 7K votes.
CO-5 (Colorado Springs) Lamborn (R)
CO-6 (Southern Denver Suburbs) Tancredo (R)
CO-7 (Northern Denver Suburbs) Perlmutter (D)

Projected Makeup D-4 R-3

State House Results:

33 needed for control: GOP 26 Dem 37 Too Close To Call 2

Incumbent = *

Tossups: 12
HD-17: Mark Cloer* (R) vs. Christine Varney (D) GOP Hold
HD-23: Ramey Johnson (R) vs. Gwen Green* (D) Dem Hold
HD-26: Andy Kerr* (D) vs. Glenn Rhoades (R) Dem Hold
HD-27: Bill Crane* (R) vs. Sara Gagliardi (D) Dem Pickup
HD-29: Debbie Benefield* (D) vs. Affie Ellis (R) Dem Hold
HD-33: Bill Berens* (R) vs. Dianne Primavera (D) Dem Pickup
HD-50: Dave Owen (R) vs. James Reisberg* (D) Dem Hold
HD-52: John Kefalas (D) vs. Bob McCluskey* (R) (Too Close To Call)
HD-53: Randy Fischer (D) vs. Anne Yeldell (R) Dem Hold
HD-55: Bernie Buescher* (D) vs. Bob Caskey (R) (Too Close To Call)
HD-56: Ken Chlouber (R) vs. Dan Gibbs (D) Dem Hold
HD-59: Joe Colgan (D) vs Ellen Roberts (R) GOP Hold

Leans/Likely Democrat: 8
HD-11: Jack Pommer* (D) vs. Catherine Jarrett (R) Dem Hold
HD-18: Michael Merrifield* (D) vs. Kyle Fisk (R) Dem Hold
HD-30: Darrin Dutcher (R) vs. Mary Hodge* (D) Dem Hold
HD-31: Rex Pierce (R) vs. Judy Solano* (D) Dem Hold
HD-36: Brian Boney (R) vs. Morgan Carroll* (D)Dem Hold
HD-41: Clyde Robinson (R) vs. Nancy Todd* (D)Dem Hold
HD-47: Liane "Buffie" McFadyen* (D) vs. Jeff Shaw (R)Dem Hold
HD-64: John Albright (R) vs. Wesley McKinley* (D) Dem Hold

Leans/Likely Republican: 15
HD-19: Kenneth Barela (D) vs. Marsha Looper (R) GOP Hold
HD-22: Jayson Haberkorn (D) vs. Kenneth Summers (R)GOP Hold
HD-25: Rob Witwer* (R) vs. Michael Daniels (D)GOP Hold
HD-28: James Kerr* (R) vs. Thomas Dittemore (D)GOP Hold
HD-37: Angela Engel (D) vs. Spencer Swalm (R) GOP Hold
HD-38: Matt Dunn (R) vs. Joe Rice (D)Dem Pickup
HD-39: David Balmer* (R) vs. Mollie Cullom (D) GOP Hold
HD-40: Debbie Stafford* (R) vs. Matt Bryant (D) GOP Hold
HD-48: Michael Dugan (D) vs. Gleen Vaad (R) GOP Hold
HD-49: Kevin Lundberg* (R) vs Susan Radford (D) GOP Hold
HD-51: Don Marostica (R) vs. Jodi Radke (D)GOP Hold
HD-54: Richard Alward (D) vs. Steven King (R)GOP Hold
HD-57: Andrew Gold (D) vs. Al White* (R) GOP Hold
HD-58: Brian Ahern (D) vs. Ray Rose* (R) GOP Hold
HD-60: Curtis Imrie (D) vs. Tom Massey* (R)GOP Hold

Safe Democrat: 20
HD-1: Jeanne Labuda (D) vs. Aimee Rathburn (R) Dem Hold
HD-2: Mike Cerbo* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-3: Anne McGihon* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-4: Jerry Frangas* (D) vs. Rick Nevin (R) Dem Hold
HD-5: Joel Judd* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-6: Andrew Romanoff* (D) vs. Jeffrey Hecht (R) Dem Hold
HD-7: Terrance Carroll* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-8: Rosemary Marshall* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-9: Alice Borodkin* (D) vs. Jerry Greenheck (R)Dem Hold
HD-10: Alice Madden* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-12: Paul Weissmann* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-13: Claire Levy (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-24: Cheri Jahn* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-32: Edward Casso (D) vs. Tracey Snyder (R)Dem Hold
HD-34: John Soper (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-35: Ruben Pacheco (R) vs. Cherylin Peniston (D)Dem Hold
HD-42: Michael Garcia (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-46: Dorothy Butcher (D) vs. Susan Pelto (R)Dem Hold
HD-61: Kathleen Curry (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-62: Rafael Gallegos* (D) vs. John Sandoval (R)Dem Hold

Safe Republican: 10
HD-14: Kent Lambert (R) vs. Karen Teja (D) GOP Hold
HD-15: Bill Cadman (R) vs. Allison Hunter (D) GOP Hold
HD-16: Larry Liston* (R) unopposed GOP Hold
HD-20: Amy Stephens (R) vs. Janet Hejtmaneck (D)GOP Hold
HD-21: Bob Gardner (R) vs. Anna Lord (D)GOP Hold
HD-43: Allen Dreher (D) vs. Frank McNulty (R)GOP Hold
HD-44: Lois Huff (D) vs. Mike May* (R) GOP Hold
HD-45: Linda Constantine (D) vs. Victor Mitchell (R)GOP Hold
HD-63: Pauline Artery (D) vs. Cory Gardner* (R) GOP Hold
HD-65: Jerry Sonnenberg (R) unopposed GOP Hold

The Democrats have won Control of the Colorado State House.

They also beat our projection, they picked up another Leans GOP seat (HD-38) with Iraq war vet. Joe Rice. It looks like they will keep their other Leans GOP seat (HD-55), Rep. Buescher leads by 2222 votes with 60% of the vote in. The other TCTC race (HD-53) is also a likely Dem. It just doesn't have enough votes counted yet.

Unlike in past years where the GOP has held its own in districts with narrow GOP majorities, the Democrats nearly ran the table. We predicted that they would win 6 of our 12 Toss Ups. But the Democratic wave was too high, the GOP only held 2 of those 12 seats, about 16%. That messes up our projection, the Democrats outperformed our model by 5 seats.

Congratulations Colorado Democrats. Now lets see what the "Colorado Promise" looks like.

State Senate Results:

18 needed for control: D-19 R-15 Too Close To Call-1

Incumbent = *

Tossups:
SD-2:Michael Griego (D) vs. Kenneth Kester* (R) GOP Hold
SD-22:Mike Kopp (R) vs. Paula Noonan (D) GOP Hold

Leans/Likely Democrat:
SD-5:Lewis Entz* (R) vs. Gail Schwartz (D)Too Close To Call
As of 1:15 Schwartz up by 584 votes.
SD-11:Ed Jones* (R) vs. John Morse (D) Democrat Pickup
SD-21:Berry Boyd* (D) vs. Matt Knoedler (R) Democrat Hold
SD-6:Jim Isgar* (D) vs. Ronald Tate (R)Democrat Hold
SD-16:Joan Fitz-Gerald* (D) vs. Marty Neilson (R) Democrat Hold
SD-24:Luis Alvarez (R) vs. Lois Tochtrop* (D) Democrat Hold
SD-20:Maryanne "Moe" Keller* (D) vs. Dick Sargent (R) Democrat Hold

Leans/Likely Republican:
SD-13:Solomon Little Owl (D) vs. Scott Renfroe (R) Republican Hold
SD-07:Dana Barker (D) vs. Joshua Penry (R) Republican Hold
SD-15:Steve Johnson* (R) vs. Jennifer Miller (D) Republican Hold


Safe Democrat:
SD-3:Abel Tapia* (D) unopposed
SD-32:Dave Lewis (R) vs. Chris Romer (D) Democrat Hold
SD-34:Paula Sandoval (D) unopposed


Safe Republican:
SD-1:James Bowen (D) vs. Greg Brophy* (R) GOP Hold
SD-9:Keely Marrs (D) vs. David Schultheis (R) GOP Hold
SD-30:Ted Harvey (R) vs. Shelly Tokerud (D) GOP Hold


Democrats have won Control of the Colorado State Senate.

Results.

Here are some results:

As of 8:23 The Rocky Mountain News has called Bill Ritter (D) the winner for Colorado's Governor.

It appears that Absentee Ballots have been counted first. From the looks of this the Colorado GOP may lose several more State House seats and at least three State Senate seats.

Early Numbers: as of 8:40.

SD-5 (Central Mountains) R-60 D-40 Republican Hold
SD-11 (Colorado Springs) R-40 D-60 Democrat Pickup
SD-21 (Lakewood) R-43.5 D-56.5 Democrat Hold
SD-22 (South-West Suburbs) R-52 D-48 This Doesn't look good for Kopp.

HD-23 (North Lakewood) R-45 D-55 Democrat Hold
HD-27 (Jefferson County) R-49 D-51 This Doesn't look good for Crane. Dem Pickup?
HD-29 (Westminister) R-47 D-53 Democrat Hold
HD-33 (Broomfield) R-44 D-56 Democrat Pickup
HD-38 (Arapahoe County) R-48 D-52 Democrat Pickup (in a GOP Seat)

State House

HD-55: We had this race listed as leans GOP.

Currently it is 56.5% for Democrat Bernie Buescher, 43.5% for Republican Bob Caskey. 30% Reporting as of 8:00.

State-Wide

Governor: We had this race listed as Likely Dem.

Curretly it is Bill Ritter (D) 57.5% and Bob Beauprez (R) with 39.5%.
Less than 1% Reporting as of 8:15.

State Treasurer: We had this race listed as leans Dem.

Currently it is 50.6% for Democrat Cary Kennedy, 49.4% for Republican Mark Hillman. Less than 1% Reporting as of 8:00.

Secretary of State: We had this race listed as Toss Up.

Currently it is 46.5% for Democrat Ken Gordon, 53.5% for Republican Mike Coffman. Less than 1% Reporting as of 8:10.

Attorney General: We had this race listed as Likely GOP.

Currently it is 42.9% for Democrat Fern O'Brien, 53.8% for Republican John Suthers. Less than 1% Reporting as of 8:10.

Final Projections 2006

Federal:

US Senate: D-51 R-49 Net D + 6
US House: D-220 R-215 Net D + 20-24


Some other sites of note:

Senate Projections:
Pollster R 49-53 D 47-51
Tradesports.com GOP control about 70%
Real Clear Politics D-51 R-49 Net D + 6

House Projections:

Tradesports.com House Dem Pickup Predicts D + 20-25

Tradesports.com GOP control about 15%
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Majority Watch D-241 R-194 Net D + 39
Real Clear Politics D-220 R-215 Net D + 18

Colorado Congressional Delegation:

US Senate: No election. Senior Senator Wayne Allard (R) Junior Senator Ken Salazar (D)

US House: Races listed by competitiveness.

CO-7:

It looked like this race was tightening up in Mid October, but recent pulling shows Democrat Ed Perlmutter pulling away from Republican Rick O'Donnell. Our average of the last three polls (from Real Clear Politics) shows Perlmutter winning 50.6% to 43.6%. We looked at past polls (Polling Report via Colorado Media Matters) and found that the polling average in 2002 was R-40.6 D-39.6, and the final results were 47-47. In 2004 the polling average was R-44.3 D-41.3 and the final result was R-55 D-43. All we can say is that the pollsters don't do very well at guessing the final results (in 04 no one saw Beauprez polling any higher than 46% in the final three polls) but the average of the last three polls has predicted the winner the last two times.

As it looks right now, Perlmutter will be the next Representative from Colorado's 7th CD. Keep it as Leans Dem.

(Originally posted Oct 25th)

The race for Bob Beauprez's open Congress seat is really the best race in Colorado. Real Clear Politics has this race listed as Leans Democrat. We agree. There is just too great a political headwind for Rick O'Donnell (R) to overcome as of right now. However, if you look at the poll numbers you can see that Ed Perlmutter's (D) lead in the polls has decreased from about 10% in September to 5.7% today. The most recent RD Strategies poll has the race tied at 47-47. Word on the political grapevine is that internal Perlmutter polling has the race tied also. This race is shaping up to be another down to the wire repeat of 2002, where Beauprez beat Mike Feely by 121 votes. We are very close to moving this race to Toss Up if we see a few more close polls and the polling average goes down below 5%.

CO-4:

This race has tightened up in the last few days. Our polling average has Paccione (D) head of Musgrave 45.3% to 43.6%. This is not a good place for Musgrave. The Reform party candidate has gotten the endorsement of several newspapers in the district, so it is becoming increasingly likely that he may be a spoiler. We still think that Musgrave is the favorite, but not by much. We have moved this race to Leans GOP and it may become a toss-up or Leans Dem by November 7th. If the Democrats take more than 30 seats in this election, Musgrave is toast.

(Original Post Oct 25th)

Marilyn Musgrave (R) will beat Angie Paccione (D). Every year a handful of Democratic Billionaires throw millions into beating Musgrave. Paccione, with her bankruptcy's intimate details splashed across the airwaves isn't the candidate to do it. Real Clear Politics has this race listed as #28 on their House List. Musgrave's impressive polling numbers have us listing this race as Likely GOP. Note to the Billionaires, find a Salazar or a Ritter and you can win this seat, make sure they don't have bounced checks for pizza listed in a bankruptcy.

CO-5: The newspapers have wasted a great deal of ink on this race. Lamborn (R) has pulled into a double digit lead over his Democratic opponent. This race is over. List it as Safe GOP.

No other changes in the other Colorado House Seats. Degette (D) will win in CO-1. Udall (D) will win in CO-2. Salazar (D) will win in CO-3. Tancredo (R) will win in CO-6.



Colorado:
All incumbents marked with *.

Governor: (Open) Beauprez (R) vs. Ritter (D)

Outlook: Likely Dem.

Downlow: Beauprez, the former congressman from CO-7 hasn't been able to pull within 10 points of Democratic former Denver DA Bill Ritter for what seems like forever. There is too strong a national headwind against Republican's, his campaign now is focused on preventing a complete Democratic sweep in Colorado. Beauprez has, at best, less than a 5% chance of winning. Look at the Real Clear Politics page on the Colorado Gubernatorial race for more data.

Secretary of State: (Open) Mike Coffman (R) vs. Ken Gordon (D)

Outlook: Toss Up.

Downlow:

Mike Coffman served as State Treasurer until he left to serve in Iraq's Al Anbar province during the last election (in Iraq). He is an Officer in the Marines.

Ken Gordon is an Democratic State Senator from Denver. He has excellent credentials and has been a beacon of bipartisanship in the State Senate.

With polling numbers showing this race as tied, we can't predict how the undecideds will break. Gordon has some commercials out on the TV, none are negative. To give you an idea how hard it is for Republicans in Colorado, Coffman's Iraqi war service is being described by some as "cashing in." It is reprehensible, and those individuals will go the way of John Kerry, but not this year.

State Treasurer: Mark Hillman* (R) vs. Cary Kennedy (D)

Outlook: Leans Dem.

Downlow:

(Update 11/7/06)

Recent polling shows Kennedy (D) with a high single digit lead over Hillman. She has TV spots up and has spent loads of money.

(Update 11/04/06)

The tone of this race has changed dramatically in the last few days. Incumbent Mark Hillman is not a veteran of any state-wide elections. Cary Kennedy is a Democratic darling. Her work on Amendment 23 (School Funding Autopilot) has made her more of a lightning rod than we could have predicted. Polling in this race is also stuck at basically a tie with undecideds at about 20%. It all depends on how they break, which may all depend on Beauprez.

Attorney General: Fern O'Brien (D) vs. John Suthers* (R)

Outlook: Leans Republican

Downlow:

This is the one bright race that the GOP has. Fern can't raise money and the incumbent looks set to easily defeat her. We did have it listed as Safe GOP, but no Republican is safe this year.

State Senate:

Outlook: R-15 D-20

Downlow: We just can't see how Matt Knoedler (R) can pick up SD-21 (Lakewood) against veteran campaigner Betty Boyd (D). Even during good GOP years Boyd has outperformed what our models say she should do. This year she has outraised him $150,000 to $63,000. Incumbent Lewis Entz (R) SD-5 (Central Mountains) looks like a loser against Gail Schwartz (D). Entz is a moderate, but when it comes to raw politics, that doesn't matter, Democrats are pouring money into this race. We also see Incumbent Ed Jones SD-11 (R) losing a marginal seat in Colorado Springs. In 2002 he won with a registration advantage of 7% for the GOP. He spent $365,000, matching Mariano almost dollar for dollar. Also, Norma Anderson's old district may be up for grabs. Her hand chosen successor, Kiki Traylor lost a bitter primary to Mike Kopp. Paula Noonan looks to outspend Kopp 2-1 or 3-1 as of right now (70K to well over 200K). As we forecast it now. The GOP will be lucky to come out of this with 15 seats.

State House:

Outlook: R-31 D-34

Downlow: Even in a bad GOP year like 2004, the Colorado GOP still won 5 out of 9 seats that our model predicted as toss ups. This year looks really bad for the GOP, but since they see the writing on the wall we think that they can win half of our 12 predicted toss ups. Basically we are forecasting a wash except that the GOP should pick up HD-57. Our model puts that seat at an 81% probability of going Republican.

2006 Election Projections: (11/04/06)

Federal:

US Senate: D-51 R-49 Net D + 6
US House: D-220 R-215 Net D + 18


Some other sites of note:
Senate Projections:
Tradesports.com GOP control about 70%
Real Clear Politics D-51 R 49 Net D + 6

House Projections:

Tradesports.com GOP control about 30%
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Majority Watch D-241 R-194 Net D + 39
Real Clear Politics D-220 R-215 Net D + 18

Colorado Congressional Delegation:

US Senate: No election. Senior Senator Wayne Allard (R) Junior Senator Ken Salazar (D)

US House: Races listed by competitiveness.

CO-7:

It looked like this race was tightening up in Mid October, but recent pulling shows Democrat Ed Perlmutter pulling away from Republican Rick O'Donnell. Our average of the last three polls (from Real Clear Politics) shows Perlmutter winning 50.6% to 43.6%. We looked at past polls (Polling Report via Colorado Media Matters) and found that the polling average in 2002 was R-40.6 D-39.6, and the final results were 47-47. In 2004 the polling average was R-44.3 D-41.3 and the final result was R-55 D-43. All we can say is that the pollsters don't do very well at guessing the final results (in 04 no one saw Beauprez polling any higher than 46% in the final three polls) but the average of the last three polls has predicted the winner the last two times.

As it looks right now, Perlmutter will be the next Representative from Colorado's 7th CD. Keep it as Leans Dem.

(Originally posted Oct 25th)

The race for Bob Beauprez's open Congress seat is really the best race in Colorado. Real Clear Politics has this race listed as Leans Democrat. We agree. There is just too great a political headwind for Rick O'Donnell (R) to overcome as of right now. However, if you look at the poll numbers you can see that Ed Perlmutter's (D) lead in the polls has decreased from about 10% in September to 5.7% today. The most recent RD Strategies poll has the race tied at 47-47. Word on the political grapevine is that internal Perlmutter polling has the race tied also. This race is shaping up to be another down to the wire repeat of 2002, where Beauprez beat Mike Feely by 121 votes. We are very close to moving this race to Toss Up if we see a few more close polls and the polling average goes down below 5%.

CO-4:

This race has tightened up in the last few days. Our polling average has Paccione (D) head of Musgrave 45.3% to 43.6%. This is not a good place for Musgrave. The Reform party candidate has gotten the endorsement of several newspapers in the district, so it is becoming increasingly likely that he may be a spoiler. We still think that Musgrave is the favorite, but not by much. We have moved this race to Leans GOP and it may become a toss-up or Leans Dem by November 7th. If the Democrats take more than 30 seats in this election, Musgrave is toast.

(Original Post Oct 25th)

Marilyn Musgrave (R) will beat Angie Paccione (D). Every year a handful of Democratic Billionaires throw millions into beating Musgrave. Paccione, with her bankruptcy's intimate details splashed across the airwaves isn't the candidate to do it. Real Clear Politics has this race listed as #28 on their House List. Musgrave's impressive polling numbers have us listing this race as Likely GOP. Note to the Billionaires, find a Salazar or a Ritter and you can win this seat, make sure they don't have bounced checks for pizza listed in a bankruptcy.

CO-5: The newspapers have wasted a great deal of ink on this race. Lamborn (R) has pulled into a double digit lead over his Democratic opponent. This race is over. List it as Safe GOP.

No other changes in the other Colorado House Seats. Degette (D) will win in CO-1. Udall (D) will win in CO-2. Salazar (D) will win in CO-3. Tancredo (R) will win in CO-6.



Colorado:
All incumbents marked with *.

Governor: (Open) Beauprez (R) vs. Ritter (D)

Outlook: Likely Dem.

Downlow: Beauprez, the former congressman from CO-7 hasn't been able to pull within 10 points of Democratic former Denver DA Bill Ritter for what seems like forever. There is too strong a national headwind against Republican's, his campaign now is focused on preventing a complete Democratic sweep in Colorado. Beauprez has, at best, less than a 5% chance of winning. Look at the Real Clear Politics page on the Colorado Gubernatorial race for more data.

Secretary of State: (Open) Mike Coffman (R) vs. Ken Gordon (D)

Outlook: Toss Up.

Downlow:

Mike Coffman served as State Treasurer until he left to serve in Iraq's Al Anbar province during the last election (in Iraq). He is an Officer in the Marines.

Ken Gordon is an Democratic State Senator from Denver. He has excellent credentials and has been a beacon of bipartisanship in the State Senate.

With polling numbers showing this race as tied, we can't predict how the undecideds will break. Gordon has some commercials out on the TV none are negative. To give you an idea how hard it is for Republicans in Colorado Coffman's Iraqi war service is being described by some as "cashing in." It is reprehensible, and those individuals will go the way of John Kerry, but not this year.

State Treasurer: Mark Hillman* (R) vs. Cary Kennedy (D)

Outlook: Toss Up.

Downlow:

The tone of this race has changed dramatically in the last few days. Incumbent Mark Hillman is not a veteran of any state-wide elections. Cary Kennedy is a Democratic darling. Her work on Amendment 23 (School Funding Autopilot) has made her more of a lightning rod than we could have predicted. Polling in this race is also stuck at basically a tie with undecideds at about 20%. It all depends on how they break, which may all depend on Beauprez.

Attorney General: Fern O'Brien (D) vs. John Suthers* (R)

Outlook: Leans Republican

Downlow:

This is the one bright race that the GOP has. Fern can't raise money and the incumbent looks set to easily defeat her. We did have it listed as Safe GOP, but no Republican is safe this year.

State Senate:

Outlook: R-15 D-20

Downlow: We just can't see how Matt Knoedler (R) can pick up SD-21 (Lakewood) against veteran campaigner Betty Boyd (D). Even during good GOP years Boyd has outperformed what our models say she should do. Incumbent Lewis Entz (R) SD-5 (Central Mountains) looks like a loser against Gail Schwartz (D). Entz is a moderate, but when it comes to raw politics, that doesn't matter, Democrats are pouring money into this race. We also see Incumbent Ed Jones SD-11 (R) losing a marginal seat in Colorado Springs.

State House:

Outlook: R-31 D-34

Downlow: Even in a bad GOP year like 2004, the Colorado GOP still won 5 out of 9 seats that our model predicted as toss ups. This year looks really bad for the GOP, but since they see the writing on the wall we think that they can win half of our 12 predicted toss ups. Basically we are forecasting a wash except that the GOP should pick up HD-57. Our model puts that seat at an 81% probability of going Republican.

This page will get reposted everyday with modifications until the election. Updates will be made daily.

2006 Election Projections:

Federal:

US Senate: D-51 R-49 Net D + 6
US House: D-220 R-215 Net D + 18


Some other sites of note:
Senate Projections:
Tradesports.com GOP control about 70%
Real Clear Politics D-51 R 49 Net D + 6

House Projections:

Tradesports.com GOP control about 30%
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Majority Watch D-241 R-194 Net D + 39
Real Clear Politics D-220 R-215 Net D + 18

Colorado:
All incumbents marked with *.

Governor: (Open) Beauprez (R) vs. Ritter (D)

Outlook: Likely Dem.

Downlow: Beauprez, the former congressman from CO-7 hasn't been able to pull within 10 points of Democratic former Denver DA Bill Ritter for what seems like forever. There is too strong a national headwind against Republican's, his campaign now is focused on preventing a complete Democratic sweep in Colorado. Beauprez has, at best, less than a 5% chance of winning. Look at the Real Clear Politics page on the Colorado Gubernatorial race for more data.

Secretary of State: (Open) Mike Coffman (R) vs. Ken Gordon (D)

Outlook: Toss Up.

Downlow:

Mike Coffman served as State Treasurer until he left to serve in Iraq's Al Anbar province during the last election (in Iraq). He is an Officer in the Marines.

Ken Gordon is an Democratic State Senator from Denver. He has excellent credentials and has been a beacon of bipartisanship in the State Senate.

With polling numbers showing this race as tied, we can't predict how the undecideds will break. Gordon has some commercials out on the TV none are negative. To give you an idea how hard it is for Republicans in Colorado Coffman's Iraqi war service is being described by some as "cashing in." It is reprehensible, and those individuals will go the way of John Kerry, but not this year.

State Treasurer: Mark Hillman* (R) vs. Cary Kennedy (D)

Outlook: Toss Up.

Downlow:

The tone of this race has changed dramatically in the last few days. Incumbent Mark Hillman is not a veteran of any state-wide elections. Cary Kennedy is a Democratic darling. Her work on Amendment 23 (School Funding Autopilot) has made her more of a lightning rod than we could have predicted. Polling in this race is also stuck at basically a tie with undecideds at about 20%. It all depends on how they break, which may all depend on Beauprez.

Attorney General: Fern O'Brien (D) vs. John Suthers* (R)

Outlook: Leans Republican

Downlow:

This is the one bright race that the GOP has. Fern can't raise money and the incumbent looks set to easily defeat her. We did have it listed as Safe GOP, but no Republican is safe this year.

State Senate:

Outlook: R-15 D-20

Downlow: We just can't see how Matt Knoedler (R) can pick up SD-21 (Lakewood) against veteran campaigner Betty Boyd (D). Even during good GOP years Boyd has outperformed what our models say she should do. Incumbent Lewis Entz (R) SD-5 (Central Mountains) looks like a loser against Gail Schwartz (D). Entz is a moderate, but when it comes to raw politics, that doesn't matter, Democrats are pouring money into this race. We also see Incumbent Ed Jones (R) losing a marginal seat in Colorado Springs.

State House:

Outlook: R-31 D-34

Downlow: Even in a bad GOP year like 2004, the Colorado GOP still won 5 out of 9 seats that our model predicted as toss ups. This year looks really bad for the GOP, but since they see the writing on the wall we think that they can win half of our 12 predicted toss ups. Basically we are forecasting a wash except that the GOP should pick up HD-57. Our model puts that seat at an 81% probability of going Republican.

This page will get reposted everyday with modifications until the election. Updates will be made daily.

Final touches going into Colorado's Election Projection 2006.

We are still wading through the data from the last few elections. Some districts are defying the current model so we are trying to patch those problems up.

We are going to do something that no one else is doing...calling every single election for the state legislature. Others may take the easy route, "Democratic control" or "GOP control," not us. We will predict every single seat.

But first we've gotta finish this pesky model.

New model coming soon, preliminary findings support Democratic gains.

We are working on our second version of our econometric model for the Colorado State Legislature. After the data from 2000 was added we discovered that the model needed some major retooling.

Here are our basic findings as of right now.

Democrats are more "efficient" at getting votes than Republicans in Colorado. All things being equal, if you have a district that is divided evenly between Republicans, Democrats and unaffiliated voters, the Democrat will win 3 out of 4 times. After tonight we will have different regression equations for the last three elections to show how the Democrats have become more efficient.

2004 was a "wave" election for the Democrats. There is still a lot of arguing going on over here, but something changed in Colorado in 2004. The Democrats picked up 7 State House seats (the equivalent of over 50 US House seats). Some of us think that Amendment 27 (campaign finance) is the key, others think that the GOP is more divided than it was before. Nevertheless, by this time tomorrow we should have a new model out, and new predictions for the State House and State Senate.

The Rocky Mountain News has a great story out today on the GOPs slide from power in the Legislature. Check it out here. The one flaw we saw in it, no talk of the power of Amendment 27.

State House Update 10/26/2006

The Downlow: The magic number for control of the State House is 33. With 65 total seats you need 33 for control. Every seat is up for election every two years, no member can serve more than four two year terms, which makes it easy to break the members down into Freshmen, Sophomores, Juniors and Seniors. The State House is currently made up of 30 Republicans and 35 Democrats. Democrats took control for the first time in 30 years in 2004.

Below is a list of the seats that are up for election this year. They are arranged by likelihood of changing control. None of these races have links, as we add individual District pages to MHD we will update this page. Our current econometric model is woefully inadequate, we will have our 1.2 version out this weekend, until then forgive us for the huge number of toss-ups, we are working on it. Look for an update Monday.


33 needed for control: Delphi Forecasts GOP 28 Dem 37
Incumbent = *
Tossups: 12
HD-17: Mark Cloer* (R) vs. Christine Varney (D)
HD-23: Ramey Johnson (R) vs. Gwen Green* (D)
HD-26: Andy Kerr* (D) vs. Glenn Rhoades (R)
HD-27: Bill Crane* (R) vs. Sara Gagliardi (D)
HD-29: Debbie Benefield* (D) vs. Affie Ellis (R)
HD-33: Bill Berens* (R) vs. Dianne Primavera (D)
HD-50: Dave Owen (R) vs. James Reisberg* (D)
HD-52: John Kefalas (D) vs. Bob McCluskey* (R)
HD-53: Randy Fischer (D) vs. Anne Yeldell (R)
HD-55: Bernie Buescher* (D) vs. Bob Caskey (R)
HD-56: Ken Chlouber (R) vs. Dan Gibbs (D)
HD-59: Joe Colgan (D) vs Ellen Roberts (R)

Leans/Likely Democrat: 8
HD-11: Jack Pommer* (D) vs. Catherine Jarrett (R)
HD-18: Michael Merrifield* (D) vs. Kyle Fisk (R)
HD-30: Darrin Dutcher (R) vs. Mary Hodge* (D)
HD-31: Rex Pierce (R) vs. Judy Solano* (D)
HD-36: Brian Boney (R) vs. Morgan Carroll* (D)
HD-41: Clyde Robinson (R) vs. Nancy Todd* (D)
HD-47: Liane "Buffie" McFadyen* (D) vs. Jeff Shaw (R)
HD-64: John Albright (R) vs. Wesley McKinley* (D)

Leans/Likely Republican: 15
HD-19: Kenneth Barela (D) vs. Marsha Looper (R)
HD-22: Jayson Haberkorn (D) vs. Kenneth Summers (R)
HD-25: Rob Witwer* (R) vs. Michael Daniels (D)
HD-28: James Kerr* (R) vs. Thomas Dittemore (D)
HD-37: Angela Engel (D) vs. Spencer Swalm (R)
HD-38: Matt Dunn (R) vs. Joe Rice (D)
HD-39: David Balmer* (R) vs. Mollie Cullom (D)
HD-40: Debbie Stafford* (R) vs. Matt Bryant (D)
HD-48: Michael Dugan (D) vs. Gleen Vaad (R)
HD-49: Kevin Lundberg* (R) vs Susan Radford (D)
HD-51: Don Marostica (R) vs. Jodi Radke (D)
HD-54: Richard Alward (D) vs. Steven King (R)
HD-57: Andrew Gold (D) vs. Al White* (R)
HD-58: Brian Ahern (D) vs. Ray Rose* (R)
HD-60: Curtis Imrie (D) vs. Tom Massey* (R)

Safe Democrat: 20
HD-1: Jeanne Labuda (D) vs. Aimee Rathburn (R)
HD-2: Mike Cerbo* (D) unopposed
HD-3: Anne McGihon* (D) unopposed
HD-4: Jerry Frangas* (D) vs. Rick Nevin (R)
HD-5: Joel Judd* (D) unopposed
HD-6: Andrew Romanoff* (D) vs. Jeffrey Hecht (R)
HD-7: Terrance Carroll* (D) unopposed
HD-8: Rosemary Marshall* (D) unopposed
HD-9: Alice Borodkin* (D) vs. Jerry Greenheck (R)
HD-10: Alice Madden* (D) unopposed
HD-12: Paul Weissmann* (D) unopposed
HD-13: Claire Levy (D) unopposed
HD-24: Cheri Jahn* (D) unopposed
HD-32: Edward Casso (D) vs. Tracey Snyder (R)
HD-34: John Soper (D) unopposed
HD-35: Ruben Pacheco (R) vs. Cherylin Peniston (D)
HD-42: Michael Garcia (D) unopposed
HD-46: Dorothy Butcher (D) vs. Susan Pelto (R)
HD-61: Kathleen Curry (D) unopposed
HD-62: Rafael Gallegos* (D) vs. John Sandoval (R)

Safe Republican: 10
HD-14: Kent Lambert (R) vs. Karen Teja (D)
HD-15: Bill Cadman (R) vs. Allison Hunter (D)
HD-16: Larry Liston* (R) unopposed
HD-20: Amy Stephens (R) vs. Janet Hejtmaneck (D)
HD-21: Bob Gardner (R) vs. Anna Lord (D)
HD-43: Allen Dreher (D) vs. Frank McNulty (R)
HD-44: Lois Huff (D) vs. Mike May* (R)
HD-45: Linda Constantine (D) vs. Victor Mitchell (R)
HD-63: Pauline Artery (D) vs. Cory Gardner* (R)
HD-65: Jerry Sonnenberg (R) unopposed

Midweek Race Update.

With only a fortnight to go before the election here is the skinny on Colorado's biggest political races.

Governor: Real Clear Politics has this race listed as Leans Democrat. We think that Beauprez (R) has at best a 5-10% chance of winning this race. The RCP poll average shows Ritter (D) with a 10.6% lead in the polls. We list this race as Likely Dem.

Other Statewide: NO Changes. A few polls are out, if we see Beauprez running over 15 points behind Ritter we may have to reconsider some of these races.

CO-7: The race for Bob Beauprez's open Congress seat is really the best race in Colorado. Real Clear Politics has this race listed as Leans Democrat. We agree. There is just too great a political headwind for Rick O'Donnell (R) to overcome as of right now. However, if you look at the poll numbers you can see that Ed Perlmutter's (D) lead in the polls has decreased from about 10% in September to 5.7% today. The most recent RD Strategies poll has the race tied at 47-47. Word on the political grapevine is that internal Perlmutter polling has the race tied also. This race is shaping up to be another down to the wire repeat of 2002, where Beauprez beat Mike Feely by 121 votes. We are very close to moving this race to Toss Up if we see a few more close polls and the polling average goes down below 5%.

CO-4: Marilyn Musgrave (R) will beat Angie Paccione (D). Every year a handful of Democratic Billionqires throw millions into beating Musgrave. Paccione, with her bankruptcy's intimate details splashed across the airwaves isn't the candidate to do it. Real Clear Politics has this race listed as #28 on their House List. Musgrave's impressive polling numbers have us listing this race as Likely GOP. Note to the Billionaires, find a Salazar or a Ritter and you can win this seat, make sure they don't have bounced checks for pizza listed in a bankruptcy.

CO-5: The newspapers have wasted a great deal of ink on this race. Lamborn (R) has pulled into a double digit lead over his Democratic opponent. This race is over. List it as Safe GOP.

No other changes in the other Colorado House Seats. Degette (D) will win in CO-1. Udall (D) will win in CO-2. Salazar (D) will win in CO-3. Tancredo (R) will win in CO-6.

We will add links to all state-wide races over the next week.

Tomorrow we will add an update to our State House page modeled after our State Senate page.

We won't be doing any predictions on the state-wide Referenda.

State Senate Update 10/18/06

The Downlow: The magic number for control of the State Senate is 18. With 35 total seats you need 18 for control. This year 18 seats are up for election, one is only for a two year term due to a resignation (read below). Seven Republican held seats are not up for election as are ten Democratic seats.

Below is a list of the seats that are up for election this year. They are arranged by likelihood of changing control. Some races have links, our default for each race is the Rocky Mountain News, as we add individual District pages to MHD we will update this page:


18 needed for control: Delphi Forecasts GOP 16 Dem 19
Incumbent = *
Tossups:
SD-5:Lewis Entz* (R) vs. Gail Schwartz (D)
SD-11:Ed Jones* (R) vs. John Morse (D)
SD-21:Berry Boyd* (D) vs. Matt Knoedler (R)

Leans/Likely Democrat:
SD-6:Jim Isgar* (D) vs. Ronald Tate (R)
SD-16:Joan Fitz-Gerald* (D) vs. Marty Neilson (R)
SD-24:Luis Alvarez (R) vs. Lois Tochtrop* (D)
SD-20:Maryanne "Moe" Keller* (D) vs. Dick Sargent (R)

Leans/Likely Republican:
SD-13:Solomon Little Owl (D) vs. Scott Renfroe (R)
SD-07:Dana Barker (D) vs. Joshua Penry (R)
SD-15:Steve Johnson* (R) vs. Jennifer Miller (D)
SD-22:Mike Kopp (R) vs. Paula Noonan (D)

Safe Democrat:
SD-3:Abel Tapia* (D) unopposed
SD-32:Dave Lewis (R) vs. Chris Romer (D)
SD-34:Paula Sandoval (D) unopposed


Safe Republican:
SD-1:James Bowen (D) vs. Greg Brophy* (R)
SD-2:Michael Griego (D) vs. Kenneth Kester* (R)
SD-9:Keely Marrs (D) vs. David Schultheis (R)
SD-30:Ted Harvey (R) vs. Shelly Tokerud (D)

Colorado State Senate Homepage

New National Forecast!

It is our opinion that if the election was held today the Democratic Party would win both the House and the Senate.

Sabato's Crystal Ball does a good job of summing up the House and Senate races.

The probability numbers are from tradesports.com, so they need not match our projections.

As it stands now we forecast the Democrats picking up 20 House seats and six Senate seats.

New State Senate Update Tomorrow!

Tomorrow we will publish our new State Senate updates. Look for it in the morning.

Prediction updates!

Our top of the ticket page has been updated with a short summary of the race as it stands now (Likely Democrat) and a link to Real Clear Politics excellent page on the Gubernatorial Race.

Here is a quick look at the race:

RCP Poll Average: Ritter (D) winning by 16.7%

Tradesports gives Ritter a 91% probability of winning.

Lower down on the ticket:

Secretary of State:

Mike Coffman (R) vs. Ken Gordon (D)

Mike Coffman served as State Treasurer until he left to serve in Iraq's Al Anbar province during the last election (in Iraq). He is an Officer in the Marines.

Ken Gordon is an Democratic State Senator from Denver. He has excellent credentials and has been a beacon of bipartisanship in the State Senate.

We haven't seen any polls, however we have to say that this race currently leans GOP based upon Coffman's service in Iraq. Unless the Beauprez campaign completely implodes and loses by more than 20%, Coffman should pull out a win. Mark this race as leans GOP.

State Treasurer:

Mark Hillman* (R) vs. Cary Kennedy (D)

Mark Hillman faces what could be the toughest statewide race. He is an incumbent but Kennedy is outfundraising him. No real buzz surrounding this race. Toss Up.

Attorney General:

Fern O'Brien (D) vs. John Suthers* (R)

This is the one bright race that the GOP has. Fern can't raise money and the incumbent looks set to easily defeat her. Safe GOP.

Related News Stories:

CO: Republican Candidates Emphasize Geography -Rocky Mountain News

Updated Predictions.

Tomorrow all of our state-wide predictions will be modified, along with the US Congress races. Our economist will have his model done by the end of the week, which will give us a probability of victory for every single state legislative race.

Additionally another contributor will be breaking some news over at polstate.com. It will be cross posted here.

Additionally we may finally have our maps up this weekend.

New SUSA Poll Shows Tie In 7th CD.

A new SUSA poll shows a tie between Democrat Ed Perlmutter and Republican Rick O'Donnell in Colorado's 7th CD.

A link to the poll is available here.

This is important because earlier signs were pointing towards this district leaning much more Democratic than it did when Congressman (and Gubernatorial Candidate) Bob Beauprez (R) won it in 2002 and 2004.

Here is a quick abstract of the poll:

O'Donnell (R) 45% Perlmutter (D) 45% Undecided 6%

Interesting notes include the fact that a Green Party Candidate and a Libertarian both are polling at 2%.

This poll will not cause us to move this race from Leans Dem. The reason is because the survey sample was 44% Republican. We need to see more polls before we will move this race.

Is GOP Candidate O'Donnell In Trouble in CD-07?

The market prices over at tradesports.com has the Republican Candidate for Colorado's 7th Congressional District rated as a severe underdog.

The market opened in April with a 50-50 price structure. Almost immediately the market went to 55-45 in favor of the Democratic candidate (and this was before we even knew who would win the primary).

Ed Perlmutter (D) a former State Senator won the Democratic primary and is now considered the favorite to win the district. GOP candidate Rick O'Donnell avoided a primary. No polls are available as of right now. A chart of the price for a futures contract for a Perlmutter victory is available over at polstate.com.


Current odds on the GOP holding this seat are 2/11 or about 18% according to the Tradesports.com market.

This has caused us to move this race from a Toss-Up to Lean Democrat.

Here are some campaign finance numbers from Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball:

Ed Perlmutter - Democrat - Second Quarter Raised: $300,110.58 | Cash on Hand: $515,009.05


Rick O'Donnell - Republican - Second Quarter Raised: $307,895.91 | Cash on Hand: $855,970.43

State Senate Homepage updated.

The Colorado State Senate Homepage has been updated. Its now more detailed and it keeps getting better. As of now we only see eight seats that are competitive, that list could widen but will probably dwindle down to one or two.

During the next week we will be focusing on the State Senate, we will try and put up details for every race such as registration numbers, campaign donations, links to candidate websites etc...

Maybe, just maybe we will get a map up.

Updated odds for control of Congress after 2006. (8/18/2006)

Here are the updated odds for the GOP to keep control of the US House and Senate this fall as taken from tradesports.com.

US House 44.8%.

Democrats now favored to take control of US House.

US Senate 81.0%.

The GOP is favored to keep control of the US Senate.

A link to the tradesports.com GOP06 page is available here.

Rising Tide: Can the Democrats Take the Majority of Colorado's House Delegation.

It is hard to believe but the GOP enjoyed a 5-2 majority in Colorado's US House Delegation as recently as two years ago. The Democratic Party is definitely waxing here in the Centennial State as they move to take a 4-3 lead in the delegation this year.

Here is how it breaks down.

HD-1 (City and County of Denver) Safe Dem
HD-2 (Boulder and Central Mountains) Safe Dem
HD-3 (Western Slope) Crystal Ball says Leans Dem; Cook Report says Likely Dem PVI R+6
HD-4 (Eastern Plains) Crystal Ball says Likely GOP; Cook Report says Likely GOP PVI R+9
HD-5 (Colorado Springs) Safe GOP (OPEN)
HD-6 (Southern Denver Suburbs) Safe GOP
HD-7 (Western and Eastern Suburbs) Toss Up according to both Cook and the Ball PVI D+2 (OPEN)

Colorado Governor 2006 (updated 08/15/2006)

Our most recent update on the Gubernatorial Race is available here.

Election Overview

Here is a quick snapshot of Colorado's political landscape:

At the top of the ticket is a Governor's race that is currently leaning Democratic. It seems that after eight years of Republican leadership the state may be leaning towards Bill Ritter and change.

There will be an update on the Governor's race up tomorrow, with appropriate links. Currently Larry Sabato over at the Crystal Ball has the race listed as Leans Dem and The Cook Political Report has the race as a TOSS UP.

The other state-wide races for Treasurer, Sec. of State etc... should all go Republican, I haven't seen any polling or fundraising numbers that make it look like the Dems are competitive on any of these seats.

The legislature is far more difficult to predict. Even though a swarm of Conservative Republicans won in Tuesday's primary it doesn't look like any of those seats are likely Democratic pickups. Ramey Johnson (R) managed to win her primary for House District 23...a moderate Republican that could easily beat the underwhelming Gwen Green. Even though Green beat her in 2004 by a few dozen votes, it seems that the GOP circular firing squad may sit this one out, and Johnson gets to run as that most endangered of species...the moderate Republican.

As it stands now it appears that the GOP has about a 50% chance of winning the State House.

The State Senate is a far harder pickup for the GOP. Look for the Dems to hold the Senate and maybe even pick up a seat.

I'll have new legislative projections up over the course of the next fortnight.

National projections will follow after that.

New June 2006 US Senate and House Projections.

I've gotten a lot of info to chew on but here is the gist of it.

As it stands now:

The Democrats are projected to pick up 1 seat in the US Senate (most probably Penn.)

The projected makeup of the US Senate in 2007-8. 54 Rep. - 46 Dem.

The Democrats are projected to pick up 13 seats in the US House (the numbers are too numerous to put up here).

The projected makeup of the US House in 2007-8. 219 Rep. - 216 Dem.

The Dems will be two seats short of a majority. Don't read this as a GOP victory, it is basically a toss-up for control of the House. Momentum is against the GOP.

US Senate and House Projections coming tonight.

I've got the projections, I just have to put them up here and on Polstate.

I'll put them up after work today.

New Predictions coming Monday.

Matrow will have a slew of new predictions out Monday. He has more prior year results that he is feeding into his model.

He has to get the models pinned down soon, the nut joined the National Guard as a way of celebrating Memorial Day so I'm gonna lose him during September and October.

New State Senate Prediction 5/17/06

Our latest State Senate Prediction calls for the Democrats to hold the Senate 18-17.

There actually is a 40% probability that they will pick up another seat instead of just holding all of their seats.

It may be too much of a hill to climb for the GOP to defend basically five open seats (there is a major rebellion going on against former Senator Norma Anderson in SD-22) and two seats that are basically toss-ups.

2006 Colorado State Senate Competitive Race Chart 05/17/06

This chart is based upon our earlier work.

You can look at it over at Polstate.

HD 26: Toss-up

I'm going to move the race in HD-26 (Lakewood) into the Toss-up category. GOP and Democratic registration is basically tied in that district. This district opened up when Rep. Betty Boyd (D) was appointed by a vacancy committee to SD-21 after Sen. Deanna Hanna resigned from office in the wake of a scandal.

The current matchup is:

Kerr (D) vs. Rhodes (R)

Financials:

2004: Coming Soon.

2006:

Kerr (D) coming soon.

Rhodes (R) -$272.57

HD 55: Behind Enemy Lines.

House District 55 is the single most likely district to change hands this fall.

It is currently held by Rep. Bernie Buescher (D).

In 2004 the Democrats picked up HD 55 with 55% of the vote in a two way race.
In 2002 the Republicans held HD 55 with 78% of the vote.

As of April the GOP holds a 21% registration advantage in this district.

Our current model predicts that this seat has an 81% likelihood of returning to Republican hands.

Finance Info:

Current:
Buescher (D) $42,372
Bob Caskey (R) $341

2004:
Buescher (D) $139,892
Opponent (R) $171,578

Current Financials from Colorado Sec. of State
2004 Financials from Follow the Money.org

New State House Prediction 5/15/06

Our latest State House Prediction calls for the GOP to take back the House 33-32.

Well it really isn't that specific.

It actually calls for the Democrats to win 32.4 seats, so we can basically call it a toss up.

2006 Colorado State House Competitive Race Chart 05/15/06

This chart is based upon our earlier work.

You can look at it over at Polstate.

Maps to the State House.

Here is a raw map of the Colorado State House Districts in Metro Denver. A color coded map will be out soon.
State House Districts:Metro Area Raw

Also, the guys at Soap Blox have done a great job with some interactive maps. Here is a link to their page.

Brian Peppers!!!

We are taking today off, look for a finished profile of all 65 house seats and all of the state senate seats by monday, plus you will get a competitive race chart and maps.

Delphi on the Colorado State House 2006

Denver County (HD 1-9), Boulder (HD 10-13), Colorado Springs (HD 14-21), Jeffco (HD 22-29), Adams, Arapaho & Douglas Counties (HD 30-45), Parts of Pueblo (HD 46 & 47), Larimer and Weld Counties (HD 48-53), Mountains and West Slope (HD 54-62)and the Eastern Plains (HD 63-65).

Partisan Differential=Registration advantage as a percentage between the two parties. For example, if 35% of the Registered voters are Republican and 30% are Democrat than the Partisan Differential will be R +5.

Any time the model spits out a probability either equal to or above 100% we call the race "Safe" and any probability between 59% and 50% is a "TOSS UP".

This model is woefully incomplete right now. It only uses two variables (PDiff and a bivariate code for who won) and it only uses data from 2004. Version two will be out within a fortnight and it will include 2002 data plus other variables if they are statistically significant.

Colorado House Phase 1 Chart

Phase one done, predictions for each State House District coming...

Our current model looks like this:

Y=4.5675 * X + -.3446

Y= the probability that either a Democrat will win in the district (-1) or that a Republican will win (1).

X=the registration advantage one party has over the other.

According to this model the Democrats have six seats that, logically, if independents voted 50-50, should be Republican due to registration advantages. The Republicans have no seats that have a Democratic advantage.

It also appears that during the 2004 election the Democrats won on average of 60% of the unaffiliated vote.

However, this still needs some work, since this model only explains about 60% of the variation in Y.

Make the Colorado Legislative Update Sunday.

Somebody bit off more than he could chew...

Colorado State Legislature Projection Update Coming on Friday.

We've set up a Photobucket account so that we can give you maps a la Election Projection.

I'll be completely redoing our state legislative projections. This will be phase one. In it I will build a model that will predict the likelihood of either a Democrat or a Republican winning in a given district based upon a model created from the October 2004 voter registration numbers.

This will give us a base-line for competitive and non-competitive districts.

In phase two I'll be adding in the 2002 voter registration numbers (as soon as the SOS's office gets them to me).

In phase three I'll add in fundraising numbers.

Throughout I'll be making sure that the statistics I use are statistically significant.

These models will be powered by Open Office.

Updated Congressional Makeup.

Here is our newest projection for what the makeup of the US House will look like after election day.

Republicans: 220 Net Loss of 12 Seats
Democrats: 215* (Net Gain of 12 Seats, still 3 seats short of majority)

With only three seats to spare this race is officially moved into the toss-up category.

*NJ (13) will remain vacant until a special election in January of 2007, but it is a safe Democratic seat. So we have counted it towards the Democratic total.

Top of the Ticket and Congressional Odds updated.

We have moved the Colorado Governor's race from the "Leans GOP" category into the "Barely GOP" category.

Larry Sabato has the race listed as a toss-up.

Coloradopols has the race leaning Democratic.

It appears that the GOP will hold the Senate in the fall, but the House could switch parties. Support for the GOP has collapsed since our last update.

We are going to do an analysis over the weekend and give an updated projection on Sunday.

MHD's mission statement:

Mile High Delphi is dedicated to predicting the outcomes of Colorado State elections and United States elections with a 95% accuracy. Not just polling, but honest to god proven econometric models will be used to figure out the winners before the voters can. One Liberal and one Conservative cutting through the mess that is the media to give you the news you need.

Updated odds for control of Congress after 2006.

Back on November 22 we opened our odds for control of Congress by using the probabilities from Tradesports as a proxy. We are going to continue that for the aggregate probabilities, while releasing some calls on individual races on an ad hoc basis.

Here is where things stood on November 22:

Currently the GOP is favored to keep control of both the House and the Senate.

Senate Probability of GOP Control: 74.2% Fractional: 5/14
House Probability of GOP Control: 72.8% Fractional: 4/11

Things have changed somewhat.

Here is a chart of the prices for options on the GOP retaining control of the US Senate:




The current probability of GOP control of the US Senate has actually risen to 79.7%

Things are dramatically different for the US House:





The market at Tradesports only gives the GOP a 53% chance of retaining the US House. That is a dramatic change from the 72% probability they had in November.

We are under 200 days until the election, time to get going.

Tomorrow we will start with a new look at the national elections, looks like some major revisions may be needed.

We will then look at the state races, race by race.

Early next week we will release probabilities for each race.

The Cauci are coming!

Just in case your one of the few who go to your caucus here is a link to Coloradopols so that you can find your location.

237 days until election day 2006.

We are still here. Just getting ready for spring break in Mazatlan (Even though we are all out of grad school, after a few shots of tequila the girls can't tell).

We are working on getting a new computer and a new website. We want this site to be on par with electionprojection.com.

Anyway, you can click here to find out how far we are from election day.

300 days until election day 2006!

We still have 200 days until things will really heat up.

Delphi Intelligence Unit

This is the page where the magic will happen.

As we spit out new projections, all updates will end up here.

Updated 01/12/06

Our current projections for the Colorado Legislature:

House: R 28-33 D 32-37
Analysis: Our initial projection shows that the GOP has quite a hill to climb in order to regain control of the house (they need to net three seats).
Senate: R 16-18 D 16-18
Analysis: Control of the State Senate is up in the air until we get a candidate line up and a look at some fundraising numbers.

Colorado State Senate Home Page

Update March, 19, 2008

Look at competitive State Senate Races




The Colorado State Senate (hereto after referred to simply as the “Senate”) is made up of 35 members. Each member is elected to a four year term, and term limits state that no member shall serve more than two terms. Due to appointments and a court ruling a Senator can serve up to ten years, but in the vast majority of circumstances you can group Senators into one of two groups, either a first termer or a last termer. Elections are staggered for the Senate, with 18 seats up during presidential election years and 17 seats up during mid-term elections. The 18 seats that are up during presidential election years will be referred to as Class 1 and the remaining 17 Class 2 seats will be decided during the midterm elections two years later. The Senate is currently made up of only Republicans and Democrats. The Democrats have a five seat majority, meaning that the GOP must win three seats in order to take control of the chamber in 2009.
The Class 2 seats currently are made up of 8 Republicans and 9 Democrats. Of the Class 1 seats up for election during this cycle 14 of the seats are not competitive. Below we list the Senate Districts based upon their “partisan differential.” The P-Diff as we call it is basically either the Democratic or Republican Party’s registration advantage as a percentage.
Before we begin with a look at each Senate District in particular, let’s just do a quick macro view of the political landscape in Colorado. In 2004 the Democratic Party took control of the State Legislature for the first time in forty years. Colorado has moderated greatly since the beginning of Bush 41’s Presidency. All things being equal you would expect that if the registration between the two parties is equal, i.e. the P-Diff is 0, than each party would have an equal chance of winning the district. Today that is not true in Colorado. The “horizon” as we call it is currently somewhere out near R +7. That means that demographically, districts where the GOP has a 7% registration advantage are “toss ups.” As a matter of fact the GOP only holds one Senate District where they have less than a 9% registration advantage, SD 2 in southeast Colorado, which has a P Diff of R +2. Basically, the GOP has to slug it out in order to win districts where it holds single digit registration advantages, while Democrats easily skate to victory in comparable districts. As things stand right now, we only see four competitive districts this cycle, with each party having to defend two seats each. Since the GOP needs three seats to capture control of the Senate we put the probability of the GOP taking control of the Senate at 1%.
Our current projection is Democratic control: R 13-16 D 19-22
Here is a look at the four most competitive districts:
SD 19:
Open. P-Diff R +5.5. Westminster. Formerly held by Sue Windels (D) for eight years.
SD 23:
Open. P-Diff R +9. Broomfield. Shawn Mitchell (R) Running for re-election.
SD 8:
Open. P-Diff R +9. Northwestern Colorado. Formerly held by Jack Taylor (R) for eight years.
SD 14:
Incumbent Bob Bacon (D) is running for re-election. P-Diff R+2.5. Fort Collins.