Thursday, November 02, 2006

2006 Election Projections:


US Senate: D-51 R-49 Net D + 6
US House: D-220 R-215 Net D + 18

Some other sites of note:
Senate Projections: GOP control about 70%
Real Clear Politics D-51 R 49 Net D + 6

House Projections: GOP control about 30%
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Majority Watch D-241 R-194 Net D + 39
Real Clear Politics D-220 R-215 Net D + 18

All incumbents marked with *.

Governor: (Open) Beauprez (R) vs. Ritter (D)

Outlook: Likely Dem.

Downlow: Beauprez, the former congressman from CO-7 hasn't been able to pull within 10 points of Democratic former Denver DA Bill Ritter for what seems like forever. There is too strong a national headwind against Republican's, his campaign now is focused on preventing a complete Democratic sweep in Colorado. Beauprez has, at best, less than a 5% chance of winning. Look at the Real Clear Politics page on the Colorado Gubernatorial race for more data.

Secretary of State: (Open) Mike Coffman (R) vs. Ken Gordon (D)

Outlook: Toss Up.


Mike Coffman served as State Treasurer until he left to serve in Iraq's Al Anbar province during the last election (in Iraq). He is an Officer in the Marines.

Ken Gordon is an Democratic State Senator from Denver. He has excellent credentials and has been a beacon of bipartisanship in the State Senate.

With polling numbers showing this race as tied, we can't predict how the undecideds will break. Gordon has some commercials out on the TV none are negative. To give you an idea how hard it is for Republicans in Colorado Coffman's Iraqi war service is being described by some as "cashing in." It is reprehensible, and those individuals will go the way of John Kerry, but not this year.

State Treasurer: Mark Hillman* (R) vs. Cary Kennedy (D)

Outlook: Toss Up.


The tone of this race has changed dramatically in the last few days. Incumbent Mark Hillman is not a veteran of any state-wide elections. Cary Kennedy is a Democratic darling. Her work on Amendment 23 (School Funding Autopilot) has made her more of a lightning rod than we could have predicted. Polling in this race is also stuck at basically a tie with undecideds at about 20%. It all depends on how they break, which may all depend on Beauprez.

Attorney General: Fern O'Brien (D) vs. John Suthers* (R)

Outlook: Leans Republican


This is the one bright race that the GOP has. Fern can't raise money and the incumbent looks set to easily defeat her. We did have it listed as Safe GOP, but no Republican is safe this year.

State Senate:

Outlook: R-15 D-20

Downlow: We just can't see how Matt Knoedler (R) can pick up SD-21 (Lakewood) against veteran campaigner Betty Boyd (D). Even during good GOP years Boyd has outperformed what our models say she should do. Incumbent Lewis Entz (R) SD-5 (Central Mountains) looks like a loser against Gail Schwartz (D). Entz is a moderate, but when it comes to raw politics, that doesn't matter, Democrats are pouring money into this race. We also see Incumbent Ed Jones (R) losing a marginal seat in Colorado Springs.

State House:

Outlook: R-31 D-34

Downlow: Even in a bad GOP year like 2004, the Colorado GOP still won 5 out of 9 seats that our model predicted as toss ups. This year looks really bad for the GOP, but since they see the writing on the wall we think that they can win half of our 12 predicted toss ups. Basically we are forecasting a wash except that the GOP should pick up HD-57. Our model puts that seat at an 81% probability of going Republican.

This page will get reposted everyday with modifications until the election. Updates will be made daily.

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