Wednesday, May 10, 2006

Delphi on the Colorado State House 2006

Denver County (HD 1-9), Boulder (HD 10-13), Colorado Springs (HD 14-21), Jeffco (HD 22-29), Adams, Arapaho & Douglas Counties (HD 30-45), Parts of Pueblo (HD 46 & 47), Larimer and Weld Counties (HD 48-53), Mountains and West Slope (HD 54-62)and the Eastern Plains (HD 63-65).

Partisan Differential=Registration advantage as a percentage between the two parties. For example, if 35% of the Registered voters are Republican and 30% are Democrat than the Partisan Differential will be R +5.

Any time the model spits out a probability either equal to or above 100% we call the race "Safe" and any probability between 59% and 50% is a "TOSS UP".

This model is woefully incomplete right now. It only uses two variables (PDiff and a bivariate code for who won) and it only uses data from 2004. Version two will be out within a fortnight and it will include 2002 data plus other variables if they are statistically significant.

Colorado House Phase 1 Chart

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