Monday, August 21, 2006

Is GOP Candidate O'Donnell In Trouble in CD-07?

The market prices over at has the Republican Candidate for Colorado's 7th Congressional District rated as a severe underdog.

The market opened in April with a 50-50 price structure. Almost immediately the market went to 55-45 in favor of the Democratic candidate (and this was before we even knew who would win the primary).

Ed Perlmutter (D) a former State Senator won the Democratic primary and is now considered the favorite to win the district. GOP candidate Rick O'Donnell avoided a primary. No polls are available as of right now. A chart of the price for a futures contract for a Perlmutter victory is available over at

Current odds on the GOP holding this seat are 2/11 or about 18% according to the market.

This has caused us to move this race from a Toss-Up to Lean Democrat.

Here are some campaign finance numbers from Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball:
Ed Perlmutter - Democrat - Second Quarter Raised: $300,110.58 | Cash on Hand: $515,009.05

Rick O'Donnell - Republican - Second Quarter Raised: $307,895.91 | Cash on Hand: $855,970.43

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