The market opened in April with a 50-50 price structure. Almost immediately the market went to 55-45 in favor of the Democratic candidate (and this was before we even knew who would win the primary).
Ed Perlmutter (D) a former State Senator won the Democratic primary and is now considered the favorite to win the district. GOP candidate Rick O'Donnell avoided a primary. No polls are available as of right now. A chart of the price for a futures contract for a Perlmutter victory is available over at polstate.com.
Current odds on the GOP holding this seat are 2/11 or about 18% according to the Tradesports.com market.
This has caused us to move this race from a Toss-Up to Lean Democrat.
Here are some campaign finance numbers from Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball:
Ed Perlmutter - Democrat - Second Quarter Raised: $300,110.58 | Cash on Hand: $515,009.05
Rick O'Donnell - Republican - Second Quarter Raised: $307,895.91 | Cash on Hand: $855,970.43