Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Update on Competitive State Senate Races.

Four of the most potentially competitive seats that are up for election during this cycle:

District P-Diff $ Diff Win Diff
SD 8 D+4 R+17.5 R+3
SD 17 D+8 N/A N/A
SD 19 R+5.5 D+33.5 D+7.4
SD 26 R+9 R+0 R+2.6

We've chosen to look closely at these races because the incumbents won with less than 55% of the vote in 2004. As we have looked at comparable Senate Districts from 2006 we have seen one huge factor, no Democrat has won a race in a competitive district where the Republican out fundraised them. The same applies for the Republicans. Money is a huge factor in these races. We have a model that takes the effect of the money differential into account, but we won't be making predictions using it until after the primaries.

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