Thursday, May 04, 2006

Colorado State Legislature Projection Update Coming on Friday.

We've set up a Photobucket account so that we can give you maps a la Election Projection.

I'll be completely redoing our state legislative projections. This will be phase one. In it I will build a model that will predict the likelihood of either a Democrat or a Republican winning in a given district based upon a model created from the October 2004 voter registration numbers.

This will give us a base-line for competitive and non-competitive districts.

In phase two I'll be adding in the 2002 voter registration numbers (as soon as the SOS's office gets them to me).

In phase three I'll add in fundraising numbers.

Throughout I'll be making sure that the statistics I use are statistically significant.

These models will be powered by Open Office.

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