Thursday, April 27, 2006

Updated odds for control of Congress after 2006.

Back on November 22 we opened our odds for control of Congress by using the probabilities from Tradesports as a proxy. We are going to continue that for the aggregate probabilities, while releasing some calls on individual races on an ad hoc basis.

Here is where things stood on November 22:

Currently the GOP is favored to keep control of both the House and the Senate.

Senate Probability of GOP Control: 74.2% Fractional: 5/14
House Probability of GOP Control: 72.8% Fractional: 4/11


Things have changed somewhat.

Here is a chart of the prices for options on the GOP retaining control of the US Senate:




The current probability of GOP control of the US Senate has actually risen to 79.7%

Things are dramatically different for the US House:





The market at Tradesports only gives the GOP a 53% chance of retaining the US House. That is a dramatic change from the 72% probability they had in November.

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