Monday, May 08, 2006

Phase one done, predictions for each State House District coming...

Our current model looks like this:

Y=4.5675 * X + -.3446

Y= the probability that either a Democrat will win in the district (-1) or that a Republican will win (1).

X=the registration advantage one party has over the other.

According to this model the Democrats have six seats that, logically, if independents voted 50-50, should be Republican due to registration advantages. The Republicans have no seats that have a Democratic advantage.

It also appears that during the 2004 election the Democrats won on average of 60% of the unaffiliated vote.

However, this still needs some work, since this model only explains about 60% of the variation in Y.

1 comment:

  1. Get any Desired College Degree, In less then 2 weeks.

    Call this number now 24 hours a day 7 days a week (413) 208-3069

    Get these Degrees NOW!!!

    "BA", "BSc", "MA", "MSc", "MBA", "PHD",

    Get everything within 2 weeks.
    100% verifiable, this is a real deal

    Act now you owe it to your future.

    (413) 208-3069 call now 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.

    ReplyDelete