Monday, May 08, 2006

Phase one done, predictions for each State House District coming...

Our current model looks like this:

Y=4.5675 * X + -.3446

Y= the probability that either a Democrat will win in the district (-1) or that a Republican will win (1).

X=the registration advantage one party has over the other.

According to this model the Democrats have six seats that, logically, if independents voted 50-50, should be Republican due to registration advantages. The Republicans have no seats that have a Democratic advantage.

It also appears that during the 2004 election the Democrats won on average of 60% of the unaffiliated vote.

However, this still needs some work, since this model only explains about 60% of the variation in Y.

1 comment:

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