Mason-Dixon Oct 11-13
Referendum C Yes: 47% No: 44% Undecided: 9% MOE:4%
Referendum D Yes: 44% No: 45% Undecided: 11% MOE:4%
POS Oct 10-12
Referendum C: Yes:49% No:46% Undecided:5% MOE:4.38%
Referendum D: Yes:50% No:44% Undecided:6% MOE:4.38%
Dan Willis* 08/05
Referenda C: For 48%. Against 44%. Undec. 8%. MoE 4%.
Mason Dixon 07/05
Referenda C: For 43%. Against 42%.
Referenda D: For 39%. Against 45%.
Update 10/17/2005 Rosen Reveals Part of GOP Strategy.
Update 10/17/2005 Closer Look at Friday's RMN Poll Results.
Update 10/16/2005 New Denver Post Poll Out.
Update 10/14/2005 New Polling Out, C and D within MOE.
Update 10/12/2005 Caldara and Allies Outspending Vote Yes on C and D.
Update 10/10/2005 Mile High Delphi Reveals New Model. Initial Prediction, C and D lose 47-53.
Update 10/05/2005 C and D Need More Money to Win.
Update 10/04/2005 A look at what we look at as we build the Referendum C and D model.
Update 10/04/2005 Ciruli Says C and D Statistically Tied.
Update 9/26/2005 Delphi on the Battle Over Ref. C and D.
Update 9/23/2005 A look at the coming battle.
Update 9/22/2005
The battle over C and D is shifting into high gear. Republican Gubernatorial candidate Mark Holtzman has hitched his horse to the No on C campaign. If C goes down his stock will go up. He is now being featured on Anti-C commercials that are financed by, among others, his father.
A new front has opened in the battle, earlier in the month Jon Caldara and the No on C campaign sued over the title of the issue. Rocky Mountain News political columnist Peter Blake, a fairminded journalist, sided with Caldara...
Earlier this week Jon Caldara and other foes of Referendum C sued the secretary of state and the legislature because, they said, the ballot title erroneously says it will enable the state to spend extra billions on roads, schools and health care over five years "without raising taxes." In fact, the plaintiffs argue, "if Referendum C passed, the measure would raise net taxes."
Under the rules laid down by the Taxpayer's Bill of Rights, says Caldara, the ballot title should ask: "Shall state taxes be increased $3.7 billion over five years" by raising the TABOR baseline. He asked the Jefferson County District Court to force this change in the ballot title. (For what it's worth, Caldara didn't protest Referendum D, since its operative phrase on the ballot title is "Without increasing any tax rates or imposing any new taxes . . ." In other words it notifies voters of the distinction between hiking taxes and hiking tax rates.)
The point here isn't to debate whether or not spending tax money that would otherwise be refunded to the citizenry is in fact a tax hike. The point is that the courts will refuse to address a possibly faulty ballot title before the election.
In other news, Dan Willis reported on Coloradopols that Referendum C had pulled up to 48-44. We have no reason to doubt these numbers, it still is a statistical tie.
* Not really sure how to characterize this poll. Here is what Dan said about it:
The poll numbers I quoted were given in a public forum I attended a couple of weeks ago. They were supposedly from one of the well-known pollsters (Talemy-Drake is in my mind, but I honestly don't remember for sure).
8/30/05 Update.
Original Post 8/21/2005
The big contest this fall is Referendum C (D only matters if C passes).
This page is designed to answer any questions someone may have about C and D and it will provide you with quick links to the supporters and opponents of C and D.
Mile High Delphi has no opinion on C and D.
Lets answer some basic questions. What will C and D do? Who is supporting C and D? Why? Who opposes C and D? Why?
What Will C and D Do?
"What is Referendum C?
C Suspends state spending limits for five years.
C Allows lawmakers to spend about $3.6 billion they otherwise would have to refund to taxpayers.
What is Referendum D?
D Allows the state to borrow against that money to begin transportation and school construction right away."
Source Rocky Mountain News.
Who is supporting C and D and why?
Vote Yes on C and D. The two Referenda are currently (updated on 8/21/05) endorsed by 522 organizations. The Vote Yes on C & D campaign committee had nearly 1.3 million dollars on hand as of July 26th.
Some of the major donors to the Yes on C & D campaign are the AFSCME Council 76 which gave $100,000 on 07/22/05, the Denver Metro Chamber of Commerce which gave $250,000 on 07/21/05, Centura Health gave $195,000 on 07/15/2005 and the Colorado Education Association gave $200,000 on 07/26/05.
Sometimes you feel like you just get a bunch of spin as to why to vote yes or no on something. Here at Mile High Delphi we've decided to just give you a link to the supporter's website (that way you don't have to read our spin). Here is why Vote Yes on C & D thinks you should vote yes.
Who opposes C and D and why?
Vote No; It's Your Dough. The two Referenda are currently (updated on 8/21/05) opposed by Americans for Prosperity, Americans for Tax Reform, The Club for Growth, Colorado Union of Taxpayers, Freedom Works, National Taxpayers Union, Save Tabor.com and the Colorado Republican Business Coalition. The Vote No; It's Your Dough campaign committee had $107,279.49 on hand as of July 26th.
Vote No; It's Your Dough had only three donors over the reporting period. Helen Sweeney gave $25.00. Edward McVaney gave $100,000. Brent Bickel gave $5,000. All on 07/19/05. This only tells part of the story. Two of the major opponents of C and D, Jon Caldara and John Andrews, both have radio shows which they use to attack the referenda items. Also, the Independence Institute is running radio commercials that basically attack C and D as tax increases (but which don't advocate a no vote so therefore count as "educational" and protect the Institute from losing its tax exempt status).
The best "No on C and D" website I've been able to find so far is this one, TaxIncrease.org.
Polling:
There is only one poll out on C and D so far:
Mason Dixon 07/05
Referenda C: For 43%. Against 42%.
Referenda D: For 39%. Against 45%.
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