Tuesday, September 27, 2005

Referendum C in the News; Updated Legislative Odds.

The Rocky mountain News is running a series of articles that examine how Referendum C would effect a handful of local individuals.

The opening article of the series is here.

The first of the seven parts is available here. This first part featured a struggling west slope family who said that they were going to vote against C because they couldn't afford to forfeit their tax rebates over the next five years.

The second article features a 23 year old single professional who lives in Aurora and works in Downtown Denver. She says that she supports C because "[I]n the end... Her TABOR refund would be better spent on improving roads and higher education." You can link to that article here.

The third part of that series features a look at the unusual Mayor of Sterling and his wife. They support C because they want to increase funding for Sterling's High School and because "[L]osing TABOR refunds with Refs C and D wouldn't devastate them." You can link to that story here.

Overall the score is No on C:1 Yes on C:2. I imagine that the Rocky will try to get a balanced look. We will probably see the storyline end with three families supporting C, three against it and one who still hasn't made its mind up.

Meanwhile in the Campaign over C...

A proxy war has sprung up between Republican Gubernatorial Candidates Mark Holtzman and Bob Beauprez. Each accuses the other of not being enough against C and of abusing campaign finance laws. The latest in a series of articles on the subject is available here. This is simply positioning for the primary next fall, as each candidate vies for support from the Republican Party's anti-tax base.

Also...

It seems that the new trend in the media's reporting on the battle over Referendum C is to point out how this side or that has lied. Most recently the No on C side has taken a few big hits. Earlier in the week Jon Caldara, the President of the Independence Institute admitted that the State didn't pay $5,000 for a piece of artwork that featured some dildos hanging on hooks. That charge had been a rallying cry for the anti-C forces. In this article it comes to light that the State didn't give Colorado company Red Robin nearly $100,000 in cash. Instead the State approved Red Robin for a grant that it will receive in the future.

Updating our legislative numbers...

It appears that the GOP is going to have a much harder time winning back the State Legislature next year than we originally thought. While these predictions are only preliminary ones, here is what we think the probability of control for next year is right now:

probability in % terms....................Fractional
GOP Control.............5%......................................19/1
Dem Control.............45%.....................................6/5
Split Control.............50%.....................................1/1

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