Wednesday, October 12, 2005

For Caldara and Allies, Less is More.

Not that money matters in these off year elections, but it seems that Jon Caldara's Vote No; Its Your Dough campaign has pulled even in spending with the Vote Yes on C and D campaign guys, maybe even ahead.

How can I come to this conclusion?

The thought first occurred to me on 10/07/2005, while watching Channel 4 News at 10:00. The vote no on c commercials outnumbered the vote yes on c commercials by a margin of 5-2 (and the five vote no commercials ran nearly in a row). Not one of these commercials was paid for by Caldara's campaign, instead they were all paid for by two separate groups, Colorado Club for Growth Issue Committee and If C Wins You Lose.

When you put together the monies spent by Caldara and the allies you get a total of $934,000. Vote Yes on C and D has only spent $3,722,000 (all numbers as of the 9/28 Secretary of State filings). That is a margin of about 4-1, well below the conventional wisdom margin of 10-1 that is needed for a vote yes committee to win against an organized opposition.

Additionally, during the month of September Vote Yes on C and D spent $700,000. The allied front spent $917,000. No referenda item has ever passed when it was outspent by its opposition (during a off-year election).

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