Monday, October 10, 2005

Praise Apollo! The Oracle Speaks on Referendum C.

Our new model predicts that Referendum C has a 28.6% probability of passing.

If the election was held today referendum C would LOSE 47-53.

How did we get here? We constructed a model based upon looking at other off year elections. The only statistically significant variables we could find were all related to polling numbers. This is the result of using complete data sets from only 2003, 2001 and 1999 and partial data from 1997, 1995 and 1993. Using these numbers we constructed a formula that predicted the outcome of every election that we had full data for. Using the Student's t-Distribution we calculated the probability that C would garner at least 50% of the vote at 28.6%.

This is the equation that we used = X+(.2*Y))+/-Z = a

X = sample mean
Y = Undecided voters (as a percentage).
Z = estimator for the population standard deviation

On a less mathematical point, the first "If C wins you lose" yard sign was sighted today at 20th and Denver West Parkway.

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