Friday, October 14, 2005

New polling on Referenda C and D. C in statistical tie, D is basically dead.

A new Rocky Mountain News/CBS 4 poll out today shows that support for Referendum C is nearing 50%. Support for D is at 50%.

Here is the poll:

Referendum C: Yes:49% No:46% Undecided:5% MOE:4.38%
Referendum D: Yes:50% No:44% Undecided:6% MOE:4.38%

Oct 10-12 POS

Using our model we predict that the Referendum C race is too close to call. Our model predicts that the outcome should be a 50-50 tie. This also moves the probability of passage to 50%.

As for Referendum D, it is statistically tied. Our model predicts that it will win 51.2-48.8. The probability of D passing has risen to 50%.

Other interesting tidbits from the poll:
- It appears that we have been right all along about the "GOP split" over C, it isn't as large as the media makes it out to be, in fact, surprisingly, it seems to be as large as the Democratic split, which is a huge surprise.

Among Democrats, 62 percent said yes. Republican voters polled 39 percent yes, despite the strong support of GOP Gov. Bill Owens.


- It seems that the electorate is split by thirds, with one third supporting C and D, one third opposing them and one third that is confused. This doesn't jive with the results of the poll and bodes well for the opposition.

Which ONE of the following phrases best describes how you feel about these proposals?

I like them and would support them. 31%

Even though I don't like them all that much I could support them because they could be good for Colorado. 33%

I don't like them at all and could never support them. 31%

Don't know 3%

Refused 1%


-The "Yes on C and D" campaign needs to get on message. The voters aren't sold on the "fiscal crisis" narrative. Over 50% of those polled think that the state is not in fiscal crisis.

And would you say the Colorado state budget is in crisis, has some problems but is not in crisis, or is in pretty good shape?

In crisis 32%

Problems, but not crisis 51%

Pretty good shape 12%

Unsure 5%



Overall this poll confirms what Mile High Delphi has been saying for weeks, this race is a statistical tie at best. The subheadline in the Rocky Article "Supporters seen as having an edge 2 1/2 weeks before vote." seems woefully unsupported by the text of the article.

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