Monday, October 31, 2005

Colorado Election Projection: Ref. C and D 2005

Referendum C is Too Close To Call

Projected Results
Yes: 49.4% No: 50.6% Probability: See Footnote.

Referendum D is Too Close To Call

Projected Results
Yes: 48.7% No: 51.3% Probability: See Footnote.


Footnote:

The reason why the races are too close to call is because the predicted vote percentages are the mean points of a zone of probability. For each predicted value (excuse the mathematics) the 95% zone of probability is -/+ 2.5.

For example, our current projection on Referendum C is that it will get 49.4% of the vote. However we can only predict to 95% accuracy that the percentage of the vote that Referendum C gets will be between 46.9% and 51.9%. The same spread applies for Referendum D. A good rule of thumb then would be that if the predicted result falls below 47.5% then we will be able to be 95% confident that the issues will fail (and vice versa if the predicted result is above 52.5%.

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