Thursday, October 20, 2005

Futures Market Info...

For those of you who don't know, we are doing three different experiments this election cycle.

The first one is the typical modeling that we have done before that uses econometric modeling to try and predict election outcomes. We had some success last cycle, but we are hoping to improve dramatically (mainly through better data).

The second experiment is a full on futures market. Like the Iowa Presidential Futures Market, or Tradesports.com, we are looking to see if a market can predict the winner of an election.

The third experiment is where we are asking participants to give us a guess at what percentage of the vote Referendum C gets. We want to see if these guesses will have any predictive power.

We have cash awards for the best three performers in the futures market and a simple $100 cash prize for whoever guesses closest on the third experiment.

For more info click on the links to the right.

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