South Projection.

Overall ten states, net senate change Democrat +1, net house change Republican +2.

North Carolina: Senate Democrat Pick Up, House NC-8 Toss Up.
South Carolina: No Change.
Georgia: GA-8 Toss Up.
Florida: House FL-8 GOP Hold, FL-16 GOP Pick Up, FL-21 GOP Hold, FL-24 Toss Up, FL-25 GOP Hold.
Alabama: House AL-2 GOP Hold, AL-5 Toss Up.
Tennessee: No Change.
Mississippi: House MS-1 Toss Up.
Arkansas: No Change.
Louisiana: House LA-6 Toss Up.
Texas: House TX-22 GOP Pick Up.

Mid Atlantic and Border States.

Overall six states, net senate change Democrat +1, net house change Democrat +1.

New Jersey: House NJ-3 Toss Up, NJ-7 Toss Up.
Delaware: No Change.
Maryland: No Change.
Virginia: Senate Democrat Pick Up, House VA-11 Democrat Pick Up.
West Virginia: No Change.
Kentucky: No Change.

New England Projection.

Overall six states, net senate change Democrat +1, net house change 0.

Maine: No Change.
Vermont: No Change.
New Hampshire: Senate Democrat Pick Up, House NH-1 Toss Up.
Massachusetts: No Change.
Rhode Island: No Change.
Connecticut: House CT-4 Toss Up.

Great Lakes Projection.

Overall eight states, net senate change 0, net house change Democrat +4.

Minnesota: Senate Republican Hold, House MN-3 Toss UP, MN-6 Toss Up.
Wisconsin: House WI-8 Toss Up.
Michigan: House MI-7 Toss Up, MI-9 Toss Up.
Illinois: House IL-10 Toss Up, IL-11 Democrat Pick Up.
Indiana: House IN-3 Toss Up.
Ohio: House OH-1 Toss Up, OH-2 Republican Hold, OH-15 Democrat Pick Up, OH-16 Democrat Pick Up.
Pennsylvania: House PA-3 Toss Up, PA-10 Toss Up, PA-11 Republican Pick Up.
New York: House NY-13 Democrat Pick Up, NY-25 Democrat Pick Up, NY-26 Republican Hold, NY-29 Toss Up.

Electoral Vote Projection Update November 03 2008

Three Blue Dudes has averaged all of the prediction pages out there and they now have Obama winning the Presidency with about 320 electoral votes. Fifty more than the 270 needed.

Our projection as it stands today is that Obama will win with 353 electoral votes versus McCain's 185.

Great Plains Projection.

Overall seven states, net senate change 0, net house change Republican +1.

North Dakota: No Change.
South Dakota: No Change.
Nebraska: No Change.
Kansas: House KS-2 Republican Pickup.
Oklahoma: No Change.
Missouri: House MO-6 Republican Hold, MO-9 Republican Hold.
Iowa: No Change.

Mountain States Projection.

Overall eight states, net senate change Democrat +2, net house change Democrat +1.

Arizona: House AZ-1 Democratic Pickup, AZ-3 Republican Hold.
Nevada: House NV-3 Toss UP.
Utah: No Change.
Idaho: No Change.
Montana: No Change.
Wyoming: No Change.
Colorado: Senate Democratic Pickup, House CO-4 Toss Up.
New Mexico: Senate Democratic Pickup, House NM-1 Toss Up, NM-2 Toss Up.

Pacific States Projection.

Overall five states, net senate change Democrat +2, net house change Democrat +3.

Alaska: Senate: Democratic Pickup, House AL: Democratic Pickup
Hawaii: No change.
Washington: House WA-8: Toss up.
Oregon: Senate: Democratic Pickup.
California: House CA-4: Democratic Pickup.

Electoral vote projection Update October 24, 2008

Three Blue Dudes has averaged all of the prediction pages out there and they now have Obama winning the Presidency with about 320 electoral votes. Fifty more than the 270 needed.

Our projection as it stands today is that Obama will win with 375 electoral votes versus McCain's 163.

US House Projection Update September 17, 2008

Our current projection for the US House is D-249 R-186. That is a Democratic pickup of 13 seats.

Other sites with House Projections.

Isto Pensitaris D-244 R-191
Vote Projections 2008 D-244 R-191
Electoral-Vote.com D-243 R-192
Election Projection D-245 R-190
Open Left D-248 R-181 Toss Up 6
CQ Politics D-236 R-183 Toss Up-16
Campaign Diaries D-253 R-182 Toss Up-4
PollShark D-236 R-186 Toss Up-13
The Conservative Hawk D-244 R-191

And of course a huge hat tip to 3 Blue Dudes. Their election projection database rocks.

Look for updates to our State House and Senate pages in the next 48 hours.

Electoral Vote Projection Update September 16, 2008

Here is a look at our Top Ten Battleground States:

Colorado: Toss Up Leaning Democrat.
Florida: Leans Republican.
Michigan: Leans Democrat.
Minnesota: Leans Democrat.
Nevada: Toss Up Leaning Republican.
New Hampshire: Toss Up Leaning Democrat.
New Mexico: Toss Up Leaning Democrat.
Ohio: Toss Up Leaning Republican.
Pennsylvania: Leans Democrat.
Virginia: Toss Up Leaning Republican.




Our projection as it stands now: Obama 273 vs McCain 265. No Change From Last Update.



Battle Ground States Detail, all Intrade quotes are for Democratic futures. Numbers can be thought of as percentages. For example a quote of 65 equals a 65% probability of the Democratic nominee picking up that states electoral votes.

Colorado:




Pollster Colorado Home Page.

Florida:




Pollster Florida Home Page

Michigan:




Pollster Michigan Home Page.

Minnesota:




Pollster Minnesota Home Page.

Nevada:




Pollster Nevada Home Page.

New Hampshire:




Pollster New Hampshire Home Page.

New Mexico:




Pollster New Mexico Home Page.

Ohio:




Pollster Ohio Home Page.

Pennsylvania:




Pollster Pennsylvania Home Page.

Virginia:




Pollster Virginia Home Page.

Our Election Projection Homepage is here.

US Senate Projection Update 11 September 2008

Here is a look at the elite eight closest Senate Races:

Alaska: Leans Democratic Pickup
Colorado: Leans Democratic Pickup
Louisiana: Leans Democratic Hold
Minnesota: Republican Leaning Toss Up
Mississippi Special: Leans Republican Hold
New Hampshire: Democrat Favored Pickup
North Carolina: Republican Leaning Toss Up
Oregon: Leans Republican Hold

Virginia and New Mexico are such likely Democratic pickups that they are no longer on our elite eight seats to watch but they are worth a mention.

Our projection as it stands now: Democrats (Including Lieberman and Sanders) 56 Republicans 44.

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

Elite Eight Detail.

Races where we forecast party change:

New Hampshire: Sununu (R) inc vs. Shaheen (D)




Pollster Poll Average

Virginia: Open Gilmore (R) vs. Warner (D)




Pollster Poll Average

New Mexico: Open Udall (D) vs. Pearce (R)




Pollster Poll Average.

Colorado: Open Udall (D) vs. Schaeffer (R)




Polls for Schaeffer vs. Udall.

Alaska: Stevens (R) inc vs. Begich (D)




Pollster page for Stevens vs. Begich.

Races where we forecast no party change but competitive races:

Louisiana: Landrieu (D) inc vs. Kennedy (R)




Pollster page for Kennedy vs. Landrieu.

Minnesota: Coleman (R) inc vs. Franken (D)




Pollster page for Coleman vs. Franken.

Mississippi: To replace Trent Lott. Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D)




Pollster Page for Wicker vs. Musgrove.

North Carolina: Dole (R) inc vs. Hagan (D)




Pollster Page for Dole vs. Hagen.

Oregon: Smith (R) inc vs. Merkley (D)




Pollster Page for Smith vs. Merkley.

Electoral vote projection 2008 Intrade home page.

The variable that has the highest weight in our model is the intrade markets. Today marks a milestone, the first time ever that McCain futures are trading for more than Obama futures.




Of course this election isn't a national referendum, it is instead fifty one different elections, and the popular vote has no meaning what so ever, so our current projection is still favoring Obama, but if Colorado flips into the McCain column than McCain will take the lead in our projection for the first time also.

If you hate the electoral college and want to go to a national popular vote visit National Popular Vote.

Electoral Vote Projection Update September 9, 2008

Our new projection shows one state moving from the Obama column to the McCain Column, Ohio.

As it stands right now, we project that Obama will win the Presidency with 273 electoral votes to McCain's 265.

Here is a look at our updated Electoral Vote Race Ratings Chart, Bold states have changed categories.

Toss Up (5): Republican; Ohio, Nevada and Virginia. Democrat; Colorado and New Hampshire.

Leans (6): Republican; Florida, Missouri and Montana. Democrat; Michigan, New Mexico and Pennsylvania.

Favored (5) Republican; Indiana and North Dakota. Democrat; Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

Safe Republican (20): Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Safe Democrat (15): California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.

Total Republican States: 28 States and 265 Electoral Votes.

Total Democratic States: 22 States and DC with 273 Electoral Votes.

Our Election Projection Homepage is here.

US Senate Projection Update 02 September 2008

Here is a look at the elite eight closest Senate Races:

Alaska: Likely Democratic Pickup
Colorado: Leans Democratic Pickup
Louisiana: Leans Democratic Hold
Minnesota: Republican Leaning Toss Up
Mississippi Special: Leans Republican Hold
New Hampshire: Likely Democratic Pickup
North Carolina: Republican Leaning Hold
Oregon: Republican Leaning Hold

Virginia and New Mexico are such likely Democratic pickups that they are no longer on our elite eight seats to watch but they are worth a mention.

Our projection as it stands now: Democrats (Including Lieberman and Sanders) 56 Republicans 44. We have moved the Mississippi Special into the Leans Republican category. No state since 1966 has voted to elect Senator's of different parties during the same election.

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

Electoral Vote Projection Update September 1, 2008

Our new projection shows one state moving from the Obama column to the McCain Column, Virginia.

As it stands right now, we project that Obama will win the Presidency with 293 electoral votes to McCain's 245.

Here is a look at our updated Electoral Vote Race Ratings Chart, Bold states have changed categories.

Toss Up (5): Republican; Nevada and Virginia. Democrat; Colorado, New Hampshire and Ohio.

Leans (5): Republican; Florida, Missouri and Montana. Democrat; Michigan, New Mexico.

Favored (7) Republican; Indiana, North Carolina and North Dakota. Democrat; Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Safe Republican (19): Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Safe Democrat (15): California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.

Total Republican States: 27 States and 245 Electoral Votes.

Total Democratic States: 23 States and DC with 293 Electoral Votes.

Our Election Projection Homepage is here.

Electoral Vote Projection Update August 15, 2008

Our new projection shows one state moving from the Obama column to the McCain Column, Nevada.

As it stands right now, we project that Obama will win the Presidency with 306 electoral votes to McCain's 232.

Here is a look at our updated Electoral Vote Race Ratings Chart, Bold states have changed categories.

Toss Up (3): Republican; Indiana and Nevada. Democrat; Virginia.

Leans (5): Republican; Florida. Democrat; Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire and Ohio.

Likely (8): Republican; Missouri, Montana, North Carolinaand North Dakota. Democrat; Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Favored (6) Republican; Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia and South Dakota. Democrat; Maine and Minnesota.

Safe Republican (14): Alabama, Arizona, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Safe Democrat (15): California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.

Total Republican States: 26 States and 232 Electoral Votes.

Total Democratic States: 24 States and DC with 306 Electoral Votes.

Breakdown of the changes:

Nevada is still basically in the toss up category, with less than a sixty percent probablity of going one way or the other, it has however moved from the Democratic to the Republican column.

Florida moved from likely to leans Republican.

Missouri, Montana and North Carolina all moved from Republican favored to likely Republican.

Wisconsin fell from Democrat favored to likely Democrat.

South Carolina and Alaska both moved from likely Republican to Republicn Favored.

Arkansas fell from safe Republican to Rebublican favored.

Maine fell from safe Democrat to Democrat favored.

Mississippi rose from Republican favored to safe Republican.

Our Election Projection Homepage is here.

US Senate Projection Update 09 August 2008

Here is a look at the elite eight closest Senate Races:

Alaska: Likely Democratic Pickup
Louisiana: Democratic Toss Up
Maine: Likely Republican
Minnesota: Likely Republican
Mississippi Special: Leans Republican
New Hampshire: Likely Democratic Pickup
North Carolina: Leans Republican
Oregon: Republican Toss Up

Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico are all such likely Democratic pickups that they are no longer on our elite eight seats to watch but they are worth a mention.

Our projection as it stands now: Democrats (Including Lieberman and Sanders) 56 Republicans 44. We have moved the Mississippi Special into the Leans Republican category. No state since 1966 has voted to elect Senator's of different parties during the same election. We are surprised by the weakness of the Democratic incumbent in Louisiana. It appears that her vote in against the development of oil shale as a favor to Colorado Senator Ken Salazar (D) is hurting her.

This You Tube Video put up by the SRCC08 has gotten a lot of media attention in Colorado and Nationally.



Mary Landrieu (D) is certainly paying a heavy political price for her vote against expanding domestic oil production at the behest of Senator Salazar.

Mary Landrieu Voted Against Expanding Domestic Oil Production At The Request Of Senator Ken Salazar (D-C0), Despite Saying It Was Against Her General Philosophy. “‘Sen. Salazar asked me to vote no. I did so at his request,’ Landrieu said. ‘But I also told him because it's contrary to my normal philosophy that I’m going to reserve the right to work with him…’” (M.E. Sprengelmeyer, “Oil shale hits roadblock in Senate,” The Denver Post, 5/15/08)

Landrieu Was The Deciding Vote: “The fate of the amendment was sealed when Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., announced that, although she would support such a measure on the floor, she had agreed to oppose the amendment in committee at the behest of Democratic colleagues.” (Terry Kivlan, “Senate Panel Passes $193 Billion War Supplemental Bill,” National Journal’s CongressDaily, 5/16/08)”

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

US Senate Race Ratings Chart

Toss Up (2): Republican; Oregon. Democrat; Louisiana.

Leans (2): Republican; Mississippi Special, North Carolina. Democrat; None.

Likely (6): Republican; Kentucky, Maine and Minnesota. Democrat; Alaska (Pickup), Colorado (Pickup) and New Hampshire (Pickup).

Favored (2) Republican; Idaho and Texas. Democrat; None.

Safe Republican (10): Alabama, Georgia, Kansas, Mississippi Regular, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Wyoming Special and Wyoming Regular.

Safe Democrat (13): Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico (Pickup), Rhode Island, South Dakota, Virginia (Pickup) and West Virginia.

Current Senate Make Up: D-51 R-49 including Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats.

Projected Senate Make Up: D-56 R-44 including Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats.

Colorado State House Race Ratings Chart.

Current Make Up: Democrats 40 Republicans 25. Projected Make Up: Democrats 36 Republicans 26 Toss Up 4

Safe Republican 22

Safe Democrat 22

Republican Favored 3

Democrat Favored 8

Leans Republican 1

Leans Democrat 5

Toss Up Republican Held 0

Toss Up Democrat Held 4