Tuesday, November 06, 2012

Final 2012 Residential, Senate and House Projections.

Final 2012 Presidential, Senate and House projections.

President: This race really is too close to call and well within the margin of error. Obama is clearly the favorite at 2:1 to win this race. It would be lame not to nail down specific numbers for our toss up states. So here is our final projection with no toss ups.

Obama starts with a solid base of 253 EVs. Romney has a base of 206. Needless to say there are fewer losses that Romney can afford if he wants to reach 270 EVs.

Here is how Mile High Delphi rates the toss up states, smallest to largest and our final EV projection.

New Hampshire, 4 EV. The demographic make up of this state favors Obama. It will be close but a Democratic win. The GOP can scratch the loss of the North East to social conservatism.

Iowa, 6 EV. If we had a rational electoral system this state would have about as much to do with the election as Alaska or Hawaii, but we don't. It will be super close here, Obama under performed the polls here in 2008 with a win margin below what the polls predicted, by nearly 5.5 percent (this is a methodology problem, which is the problem with using polls as a predictor). We score this a very narrow Romney victory.

Colorado, 9 EV. Obama had a blowout win in Colorado in 2008. The polling done here is hopelessly flawed. The actual data so far, which is absentee ballots sent in in 2012 vs 2008 shows that Romney should have a comfortable win of a few percentage points. Obama's base just is not there.

Virginia, 13 EV. This state will vote for Romney, long term the GOP will have problems here because of the DC suburbs, but the one time wonders who pushed Obama over the top in 2008 will not turn out and vote for awhile.

Ohio, 18 EV. You might as well toss a coin on this one. We have to make a call, once again we believe that the one time wonders who turned out for Obama in 2008 will just not be able to figure out how to vote this time around. We score it Romney.

Florida, 29 EV. Florida? Really you have this as a Toss Up? Well our model says it its close so yes. We think Florida will be within a point or two, just like Ohio but that Romney will grind out a win based upon the one time wonder voters again not turning out for Obama.

Final prediction. Obama 257 - Romney 281

Senate: The GOP circular firing squad continues to spoil the chances of this party winning the upper house. We think that the two parties will trade a few seats (with an independent hoping in too) but that overall the Senate will look the same next year as this year. 47-53 Democratic majority. The only surprise could be Wisconsin.

House: We will save everyone the pain of looking at individual races. Look for the House to have about 240 Republicans vs 195 Democrats. You can give or take a few but the GOP has a 100% probability of controlling the lower chamber in the next session.

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