US Senate Projection Update April 30, 2008

US Senate Homepage


Current Projection: Democrats gain 5 seats. Results D-56 R-44

The elite eight most competitive Senate Races:

Races are listed by how competitive they are based upon Intrade probabilities:

(1)Mississippi: To replace Trent Lott. Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D) No Polling
Intrade lists the races as 50/50 with no volume.

No change in party control.

(2)Louisiana: Landrieu (D) inc vs. Kennedy (R) Intrade gives Landrieu a 55% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Kennedy trailing Landrieu 40.5% to 48%.

Pollster page for Kennedy vs. Landrieu.

No change in party control.

(3)Minnesota: Coleman (R) inc vs. Franken (D) Intrade gives Coleman a 56% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Coleman beating Franken 49.3% to 43%.

Pollster page for Coleman vs. Franken.

No change in party control.

(4)Alaska: Stevens (R) inc vs. Begich (D) Intrade gives Begich a 62.5% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Begich leading Stevens 46% to 43.5%.

Pollster page for Stevens vs. Begich.

Democrat pickup.

(5)New Hampshire: Sununu (R) inc vs. Shaheen (D) Intrade gives Shaheen a 64% probability of winning.

As of 3/17 the poll average showed Shaheen leading Sununu 49% to 39%.

Pollster Poll Average

Democrat pickup.

(6)Colorado: Open Udall (D) vs. Schaeffer (R) Intrade gives Udall a 64% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Udall beating Schaffer 45.5% to 38%.

Polls for Schaeffer vs. Udall.

Democrat pickup.

(7)New Mexico: Open Udall (D) vs. Pearce (R) or Wilson (R) Intrade gives Udall a 75% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Udall beating Pearce 54% to 37% and Udall beating Wilson 55% to 38%.

Polls for Udall vs. Wilson and for Udall vs. Pearce.

Democrat pickup.

(8)Virginia: Open Gilmore (R) vs. Warner (D) Intrade gives Warner a 80.5% probability of winning.

As of 3/27 the poll average showed Warner beating Gilmore 56% to 38.5%.

Pollster Poll Average

Democrat pickup.

Electoral Vote Projection Update Late April 2008.

Our late April update shows the race for President tightening. If the election were held today neither party would have the 270 votes needed in order to win the presidency. We have the race nearly tied at D-234 R-240 Toss up-64.

Electoral vote projection home page here.

Super Competitive States:

Colorado: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Colorado at 60%.

Pollster.com has the average of Colorado polls for Obama vs. McCain at 43.7-46.7.

We are going to keep Colorado in the Toss Up category.

New Mexico: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning New Mexico at 64%.

Pollster.com has the average of New Mexico polls for Obama vs. McCain at 42.5% to 47%.

We are going to keep New Mexico in the Toss Up category.

Nevada: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Nevada at 53%.

Pollster.com has the average of Nevada polls for Obama vs. McCain at 47-40.

We are going to keep Nevada in the Toss Up category.

Ohio: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Ohio at 62.5%.

Pollster.com has the average of Ohio polls for Obama vs. McCain at 42.7-45.3.

Real Clear Politics has the general election average at 42.7% for Obama and 45.3% for McCain.

We are going to keep Ohio in the Toss Up category.

Competitive States:

Iowa: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Iowa at 66%.

Pollster.com has the average of Iowa polls for Obama vs. McCain at 47.5 to 42.6.

Real Clear Politics has the general election average at 49.3% for Obama and 40% for McCain.

We have Iowa in the Democratic Category.

Minnesota: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Minnesota at 80%.

Pollster.com has the average of Minnesota polls for Obama vs. McCain at 51.1-39.7.

We have Minnesota in the Democratic Category.

New Hampshire: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning New Hampshire at 55%.

Pollster.com has the average of New Hampshire polls for Obama vs. McCain at 46-42.

We are putting New Hampshire's electoral votes in the Toss Up category..

Pennsylvania: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Pennsylvania at 67.5%.

Pollster.com has the average of the Pennsylvania polls for Obama vs. McCain at 42.7 to 45.2.

Real Clear Politics has the race tied at 43%.

We are moving Pennsylvania into the Toss Up Category.

Competitive States:

Arkansas: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Arkansas electoral votes at 26%.

Pollster.com has the average of polls in Arkansas with McCain leading Obama 53% to 30%.

We are giving Arkansas electoral votes to McCain.

Michigan: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Michigan's electoral votes at 78%.

Pollster.com has the average of polls in Michigan showing Obama leading McCain 42.5% to 41.2%.

We are keeping Michigan's electoral votes in the Democratic category.

Missouri: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Missouri's electoral votes at 42.5%.

Pollster.com has the average of polls in Missouri showing McCain beating Obama 52.8% to 39.9%.

We are giving Missouri's electoral votes to McCain.

Virginia: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Virginia's electoral votes at 44.5%.

Pollster.com has the average of polls in Virginia showing McCain beating Obama 52.3% to 43.1%.

We are putting Virginia's Electoral votes in the McCain category.

Who is going to win the Pennsylvania primary?

Here is our look at the Pennsylvania primary:

Two questions need to be asked, firstly who is going to win and secondly by how much? Conventional wisdom says that Clinton has to win, and that she needs to win by a certain margin in order to continue her challenge to Barack Obama.

The first thing that we always look at is what the futures markets say. The intrade market for the Penn. primary says that Clinton has a 89% probability of winning. That is huge. Clinton is going to win Pennsylvania.

Now the only question is by how much? Here is a link to the pollster page for the Penn. primary. As of right now the poll average is Clinton 48.1% vs Obama 42%. That is a spread of 6.1%. Real Clear Politics has the spread at 5.3%, with Clinton beating Obama 47.6% to 42.3%.

We have seen Clinton consistently overperform her polling numbers this cycle. We put the spread at at least 7%.

Elite Eight Top Most Competitive Senate Races.

US Senate Homepage Current Projection

Races where we forecast party change:

New Hampshire: Sununu (R) inc vs. Shaheen (D)

As of 3/17 the poll average showed Shaheen leading Sununu 49% to 39%.

Pollster Poll Average

Virginia: Open Gilmore (R) vs. Warner (D)

As of 3/27 the poll average showed Warner beating Gilmore 56% to 38.5%.

Pollster Poll Average

New Mexico: Open Udall (D) vs. Pearce (R) or Wilson (R)

Average of the polls shows Udall beating Pearce 54% to 37% and Udall beating Wilson 55% to 38%.

Polls for Udall vs. Wilson and for Udall vs. Pearce.

Colorado: Open Udall (D) vs. Schaeffer (R)

Average of the polls shows Udall beating Schaffer 45.5% to 38%.

Polls for Schaeffer vs. Udall.

Louisiana: Landrieu (D) inc vs. Kennedy (R)

Average of the polls shows Kennedy trailing Landrieu 40.5% to 48%.

Pollster page for Kennedy vs. Landrieu.

Races where we forecast no party change but competitive races:

Minnesota: Coleman (R) inc vs. Franken (D)

Average of the polls shows Coleman beating Franken 49.3% to 43%.

Pollster page for Coleman vs. Franken.

Alaska: Stevens (R) inc vs. Begich (D)

Average of the polls shows Begich leading Stevens 46% to 43.5%.

Pollster page for Stevens vs. Begich.

Mississippi: To replace Trent Lott. Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D)

Electoral Projection Update 4/13/2008

Our new projection shows neither party with 270 electoral votes. As it stands today the Democrats have 259 electoral votes, the Republicans have 240 and 39 are in the toss up category.

Dirty Dozen Top Competitive Electoral States

We have divided these most competitive states into three tiers:

Tier one, super competitive: Nevada, Colorado, Ohio and New Mexico.

Tier two, very competitive: Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Minnesota.

Tier three, competitive: Virginia, Missouri, Arkansas and Michigan.

A quick note, we only use three different variables in creating our models, firstly, futures markets, secondly we look at polling data and lastly we look at prior voting behavior. One other caveat, all of our data assumes that it is a McCain vs. Obama race in the fall.

Our full electoral update will be up by Monday, along with a US Senate update.