US House Projection Update September 17, 2008

Our current projection for the US House is D-249 R-186. That is a Democratic pickup of 13 seats.

Other sites with House Projections.

Isto Pensitaris D-244 R-191
Vote Projections 2008 D-244 R-191
Electoral-Vote.com D-243 R-192
Election Projection D-245 R-190
Open Left D-248 R-181 Toss Up 6
CQ Politics D-236 R-183 Toss Up-16
Campaign Diaries D-253 R-182 Toss Up-4
PollShark D-236 R-186 Toss Up-13
The Conservative Hawk D-244 R-191

And of course a huge hat tip to 3 Blue Dudes. Their election projection database rocks.

Look for updates to our State House and Senate pages in the next 48 hours.

Electoral Vote Projection Update September 16, 2008

Here is a look at our Top Ten Battleground States:

Colorado: Toss Up Leaning Democrat.
Florida: Leans Republican.
Michigan: Leans Democrat.
Minnesota: Leans Democrat.
Nevada: Toss Up Leaning Republican.
New Hampshire: Toss Up Leaning Democrat.
New Mexico: Toss Up Leaning Democrat.
Ohio: Toss Up Leaning Republican.
Pennsylvania: Leans Democrat.
Virginia: Toss Up Leaning Republican.




Our projection as it stands now: Obama 273 vs McCain 265. No Change From Last Update.



Battle Ground States Detail, all Intrade quotes are for Democratic futures. Numbers can be thought of as percentages. For example a quote of 65 equals a 65% probability of the Democratic nominee picking up that states electoral votes.

Colorado:




Pollster Colorado Home Page.

Florida:




Pollster Florida Home Page

Michigan:




Pollster Michigan Home Page.

Minnesota:




Pollster Minnesota Home Page.

Nevada:




Pollster Nevada Home Page.

New Hampshire:




Pollster New Hampshire Home Page.

New Mexico:




Pollster New Mexico Home Page.

Ohio:




Pollster Ohio Home Page.

Pennsylvania:




Pollster Pennsylvania Home Page.

Virginia:




Pollster Virginia Home Page.

Our Election Projection Homepage is here.

US Senate Projection Update 11 September 2008

Here is a look at the elite eight closest Senate Races:

Alaska: Leans Democratic Pickup
Colorado: Leans Democratic Pickup
Louisiana: Leans Democratic Hold
Minnesota: Republican Leaning Toss Up
Mississippi Special: Leans Republican Hold
New Hampshire: Democrat Favored Pickup
North Carolina: Republican Leaning Toss Up
Oregon: Leans Republican Hold

Virginia and New Mexico are such likely Democratic pickups that they are no longer on our elite eight seats to watch but they are worth a mention.

Our projection as it stands now: Democrats (Including Lieberman and Sanders) 56 Republicans 44.

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

Elite Eight Detail.

Races where we forecast party change:

New Hampshire: Sununu (R) inc vs. Shaheen (D)




Pollster Poll Average

Virginia: Open Gilmore (R) vs. Warner (D)




Pollster Poll Average

New Mexico: Open Udall (D) vs. Pearce (R)




Pollster Poll Average.

Colorado: Open Udall (D) vs. Schaeffer (R)




Polls for Schaeffer vs. Udall.

Alaska: Stevens (R) inc vs. Begich (D)




Pollster page for Stevens vs. Begich.

Races where we forecast no party change but competitive races:

Louisiana: Landrieu (D) inc vs. Kennedy (R)




Pollster page for Kennedy vs. Landrieu.

Minnesota: Coleman (R) inc vs. Franken (D)




Pollster page for Coleman vs. Franken.

Mississippi: To replace Trent Lott. Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D)




Pollster Page for Wicker vs. Musgrove.

North Carolina: Dole (R) inc vs. Hagan (D)




Pollster Page for Dole vs. Hagen.

Oregon: Smith (R) inc vs. Merkley (D)




Pollster Page for Smith vs. Merkley.

Electoral vote projection 2008 Intrade home page.

The variable that has the highest weight in our model is the intrade markets. Today marks a milestone, the first time ever that McCain futures are trading for more than Obama futures.




Of course this election isn't a national referendum, it is instead fifty one different elections, and the popular vote has no meaning what so ever, so our current projection is still favoring Obama, but if Colorado flips into the McCain column than McCain will take the lead in our projection for the first time also.

If you hate the electoral college and want to go to a national popular vote visit National Popular Vote.

Electoral Vote Projection Update September 9, 2008

Our new projection shows one state moving from the Obama column to the McCain Column, Ohio.

As it stands right now, we project that Obama will win the Presidency with 273 electoral votes to McCain's 265.

Here is a look at our updated Electoral Vote Race Ratings Chart, Bold states have changed categories.

Toss Up (5): Republican; Ohio, Nevada and Virginia. Democrat; Colorado and New Hampshire.

Leans (6): Republican; Florida, Missouri and Montana. Democrat; Michigan, New Mexico and Pennsylvania.

Favored (5) Republican; Indiana and North Dakota. Democrat; Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

Safe Republican (20): Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Safe Democrat (15): California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.

Total Republican States: 28 States and 265 Electoral Votes.

Total Democratic States: 22 States and DC with 273 Electoral Votes.

Our Election Projection Homepage is here.

US Senate Projection Update 02 September 2008

Here is a look at the elite eight closest Senate Races:

Alaska: Likely Democratic Pickup
Colorado: Leans Democratic Pickup
Louisiana: Leans Democratic Hold
Minnesota: Republican Leaning Toss Up
Mississippi Special: Leans Republican Hold
New Hampshire: Likely Democratic Pickup
North Carolina: Republican Leaning Hold
Oregon: Republican Leaning Hold

Virginia and New Mexico are such likely Democratic pickups that they are no longer on our elite eight seats to watch but they are worth a mention.

Our projection as it stands now: Democrats (Including Lieberman and Sanders) 56 Republicans 44. We have moved the Mississippi Special into the Leans Republican category. No state since 1966 has voted to elect Senator's of different parties during the same election.

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

Electoral Vote Projection Update September 1, 2008

Our new projection shows one state moving from the Obama column to the McCain Column, Virginia.

As it stands right now, we project that Obama will win the Presidency with 293 electoral votes to McCain's 245.

Here is a look at our updated Electoral Vote Race Ratings Chart, Bold states have changed categories.

Toss Up (5): Republican; Nevada and Virginia. Democrat; Colorado, New Hampshire and Ohio.

Leans (5): Republican; Florida, Missouri and Montana. Democrat; Michigan, New Mexico.

Favored (7) Republican; Indiana, North Carolina and North Dakota. Democrat; Iowa, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Safe Republican (19): Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Safe Democrat (15): California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.

Total Republican States: 27 States and 245 Electoral Votes.

Total Democratic States: 23 States and DC with 293 Electoral Votes.

Our Election Projection Homepage is here.