Wednesday, October 06, 2004

Delphi on the Presidential Race.

Final Update: 11/01/2004

Our final average for the 2004 election is in. Bush should narrowly beat Kerry 273 to 265. In the popular vote, the averages predict a small Bush victory of 49.66% to Kerry's 48.35%.

My personal projection, it won't be that close. We will know by about midnight mountain time who the winner is.

Update: 10/11/2004. Three updates today. Election Projection is now forecasting a narrow Bush win. Bush 274, Kerry 264. is forecasting a Kerry win with Kerry getting 280 electoral votes and Bush getting 254 (NH is a toss-up). Real Clear Politics is forecasting Bush getting 264, Kerry getting 220, with 54 electoral votes in tossup states.

The Crystal Ball and Federal Review have no updates.

As such the new totals are Bush 274+256+295+284+264+27/5 = 280. Kerry 264+282+243+254+220+27/5 = 258.

On 10/6/2004 the average was Bush 293, Kerry 245. Two days later it was Bush 283, Kerry 255. As it stands now, Bush has lost 3 electoral votes since 10/9/04 and Kerry has picked up three.

Original Post: 10/06/2004
MHD isn't even going to try to do the heavy lifting in the Presidential race. Instead, we will update on a regular basis the average electoral college numbers from Election Projection,, Federal Review and The Crystal Ball. Each site is weighted the same.

If you know of any other sites that deserve to be included in the average, post it, we are slaves to our readers.

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