Electoral Vote Projection Update August 15, 2008

Our new projection shows one state moving from the Obama column to the McCain Column, Nevada.

As it stands right now, we project that Obama will win the Presidency with 306 electoral votes to McCain's 232.

Here is a look at our updated Electoral Vote Race Ratings Chart, Bold states have changed categories.

Toss Up (3): Republican; Indiana and Nevada. Democrat; Virginia.

Leans (5): Republican; Florida. Democrat; Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire and Ohio.

Likely (8): Republican; Missouri, Montana, North Carolinaand North Dakota. Democrat; Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Favored (6) Republican; Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia and South Dakota. Democrat; Maine and Minnesota.

Safe Republican (14): Alabama, Arizona, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Safe Democrat (15): California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.

Total Republican States: 26 States and 232 Electoral Votes.

Total Democratic States: 24 States and DC with 306 Electoral Votes.

Breakdown of the changes:

Nevada is still basically in the toss up category, with less than a sixty percent probablity of going one way or the other, it has however moved from the Democratic to the Republican column.

Florida moved from likely to leans Republican.

Missouri, Montana and North Carolina all moved from Republican favored to likely Republican.

Wisconsin fell from Democrat favored to likely Democrat.

South Carolina and Alaska both moved from likely Republican to Republicn Favored.

Arkansas fell from safe Republican to Rebublican favored.

Maine fell from safe Democrat to Democrat favored.

Mississippi rose from Republican favored to safe Republican.

Our Election Projection Homepage is here.

US Senate Projection Update 09 August 2008

Here is a look at the elite eight closest Senate Races:

Alaska: Likely Democratic Pickup
Louisiana: Democratic Toss Up
Maine: Likely Republican
Minnesota: Likely Republican
Mississippi Special: Leans Republican
New Hampshire: Likely Democratic Pickup
North Carolina: Leans Republican
Oregon: Republican Toss Up

Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico are all such likely Democratic pickups that they are no longer on our elite eight seats to watch but they are worth a mention.

Our projection as it stands now: Democrats (Including Lieberman and Sanders) 56 Republicans 44. We have moved the Mississippi Special into the Leans Republican category. No state since 1966 has voted to elect Senator's of different parties during the same election. We are surprised by the weakness of the Democratic incumbent in Louisiana. It appears that her vote in against the development of oil shale as a favor to Colorado Senator Ken Salazar (D) is hurting her.

This You Tube Video put up by the SRCC08 has gotten a lot of media attention in Colorado and Nationally.



Mary Landrieu (D) is certainly paying a heavy political price for her vote against expanding domestic oil production at the behest of Senator Salazar.

Mary Landrieu Voted Against Expanding Domestic Oil Production At The Request Of Senator Ken Salazar (D-C0), Despite Saying It Was Against Her General Philosophy. “‘Sen. Salazar asked me to vote no. I did so at his request,’ Landrieu said. ‘But I also told him because it's contrary to my normal philosophy that I’m going to reserve the right to work with him…’” (M.E. Sprengelmeyer, “Oil shale hits roadblock in Senate,” The Denver Post, 5/15/08)

Landrieu Was The Deciding Vote: “The fate of the amendment was sealed when Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., announced that, although she would support such a measure on the floor, she had agreed to oppose the amendment in committee at the behest of Democratic colleagues.” (Terry Kivlan, “Senate Panel Passes $193 Billion War Supplemental Bill,” National Journal’s CongressDaily, 5/16/08)”

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

US Senate Race Ratings Chart

Toss Up (2): Republican; Oregon. Democrat; Louisiana.

Leans (2): Republican; Mississippi Special, North Carolina. Democrat; None.

Likely (6): Republican; Kentucky, Maine and Minnesota. Democrat; Alaska (Pickup), Colorado (Pickup) and New Hampshire (Pickup).

Favored (2) Republican; Idaho and Texas. Democrat; None.

Safe Republican (10): Alabama, Georgia, Kansas, Mississippi Regular, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Wyoming Special and Wyoming Regular.

Safe Democrat (13): Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico (Pickup), Rhode Island, South Dakota, Virginia (Pickup) and West Virginia.

Current Senate Make Up: D-51 R-49 including Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats.

Projected Senate Make Up: D-56 R-44 including Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats.

Colorado State House Race Ratings Chart.

Current Make Up: Democrats 40 Republicans 25. Projected Make Up: Democrats 36 Republicans 26 Toss Up 4

Safe Republican 22

Safe Democrat 22

Republican Favored 3

Democrat Favored 8

Leans Republican 1

Leans Democrat 5

Toss Up Republican Held 0

Toss Up Democrat Held 4

Colorado State Senate Race Ratings Chart.

Current Make Up: 20 Democrats 15 Republicans. Projected Make Up: Democrats 18 Republicans 15 Toss Up 2

No Election: R-8 D-8

Safe Republican (4): SD 27, SD 4, SD 10, SD 12

Safe Democrat (8): SD 17, SD 18, SD 25, SD 28, SD 29, SD 31, SD 33, SD 35

Republican Favored (1): SD 26

Democrat Favored (2): SD 14, SD 21

Leans Republican (0): SD 8, SD 23

Leans Democrat (0)

Toss Up Republican Held (0)

Toss Up Democrat Held (2): SD 16, SD 19

Electoral Vote Race Ratings Chart.

Toss Up (4): Republican; Florida and Indiana. Democrat; Nevada and Virginia.

Leans (7): Republican; Missouri, Montana and North Carolina. Democrat; Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire and Ohio.

Likely (6): Republican; Alaska, North Dakota and South Dakota. Democrat; Iowa, New Mexico and Pennsylvania.

Favored (4) Republican; Georgia and Mississippi. Democrat; Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Safe Republican (15): Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.

Safe Democrat (15): California, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.

Total Republican States: 25 States and 227 Electoral Votes.

Total Democratic States: 25 States and DC with 311 Electoral Votes.

Electoral Vote Projection Update August 6, 2008

Our prediction remains unchanged at Obama 311 McCain 227.

Here are what some of the other projection sites say:

Electoral-Vote.com predicts Obama 289 McCain 236 Toss Up 13.



3 Blue Dudes predicts Obama 260 McCain 157 Toss Up 121.



Election Projection (our original inspiration) predicts Obama 298 McCain 240



3 Blue Dudes has a great Election Projection Project Data Base where they have links to every projection website that they have found. If your really into politics, this website is nirvana for you. You can find it by clicking here.

Our Election Projection Homepage is here.

State House and State Senate Prediction Update.

Here is our new projection for the Colorado State Senate and Colorado State House elections.

State Senate: Current D-20 R-15 Projection D-18 R-15 Toss up-2

State House: Current D-40 R-25 Projection D-36 R-26 Toss up-4

Detailed analysis will be up shortly along with a map of the State House Districts.

State House Districts: Douglas County and Teller County.

Colorado State House District 43 (HD 43): Safe Republican. Frank McNulty (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.frankmcnulty.com/ CO Maps HD 43 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 44 (HD 44): Safe Republican. Mike May (R) Junior* Contact: http://www.mike-may.org/ CO Maps HD 44 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 45 (HD 45): Safe Republican. Open CO Maps HD 45 Page Here.

State House Districts: Arapahoe and Elbert County.

Colorado State House District 36 (HD 36): Democrat Favored. Open CO Maps HD 36 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 37 (HD 37): Safe Republican. Spencer Swalm (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.swalmforhd37.org/ CO Maps HD 37 Page Here. Spencer Swalm Wikipedia page here.

Colorado State House District 38 (HD 38): Leans Democrat. Joe Rice (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.votejoerice.com/ CO Maps HD 38 Page Here. Joe Rice Wikipedia page here.

Colorado State House District 39 (HD 39): Safe Republican. David Balmer (R) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.davidbalmer.com/ CO Maps HD 39 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 40 (HD 40): Safe Republican Pickup. Open CO Maps HD 40 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 41 (HD 41): Safe Democrat. Nancy Todd (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.nancytodd.org/ CO Maps HD 41 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 42 (HD 42): Safe Democrat. Open CO Maps HD 42 Page Here.

State House Districts: El Paso and Fremont County.

Colorado State House District 14 (HD 14): Safe Republican. Kent Lambert (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.kentlambert.com/ CO Maps HD 14 Page Here. Kent Lambert Wikipedia page here.

Colorado State House District 15 (HD 15): Safe Republican. Douglas Bruce (R) Red Shirt Freshman* Contact: http://www.state.co.us/gov_dir/leg_dir/House/members/Hou15.html CO Maps HD 15 Page Here. Douglas Bruce Wikipedia page here.

Colorado State House District 16 (HD 16): Safe Republican. Larry Liston (R) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.larrylistonforhd16.com/ CO Maps HD 16 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 17 (HD 17): Republican Favored. Stella Hicks (R) Freshman* Contact: stella.hicks.house@state.co.us CO Maps HD 17 Page Here. Stella Hicks Wikipedia Page here.

Colorado State House District 18 (HD 18): Democrat Favored. Michael Merrifield (D) Junior* Contact: http://www.michaelmerrifield.org/ CO Maps HD 18 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 19 (HD 19): Safe Republican. Marsha Looper (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.gomarsha.org/ CO Maps HD 19 Page Here. Marsha Looper Wikipedia here.

Colorado State House District 20 (HD 20): Safe Republican. Amy Stephens (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.amystephens4hd20.com/ CO Maps HD 20 Page Here. Amy Stephens Wikipedia here.

Colorado State House District 21 (HD 21): Safe Republican. Bob Gardner (R) Sophomore* Contact: bob.gardner.house@state.co.us CO Maps HD 21 Page Here. Bob Gardner Wikipedia here.

State House Districts: Broomfield and Adams County.

Adams County GOP here.

Adams County Democrats here.

Colorado State House District 30 (HD 30): Democrat Favored. Open CO Maps HD 30 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 31 (HD 31): Leans Democrat. Judy Solano (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.judysolano.com/ CO Maps HD 31 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 32 (HD 32): Safe Democrat. Edward Casso (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.edwardcassofor32.org/ CO Maps HD 32 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 33 (HD 33): To Close to Call. Dianne Primavera (D) Freshman* Contact: http://dianneprimavera.com/ CO Maps HD 33 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 34 (HD 34): Safe Democrat. John Soper (D) Freshman* Contact: johnsoper235@comcast.net CO Maps HD 34 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 35 (HD 35): Safe Democrat. Cherylin Peniston (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.cherylinpeniston.com/ CO Maps HD 35 Page Here.

State House Districts: Boulder, Gilpin and Clear Creek Counties. HD 10-13

The four House Districts that are centered around Boulder County reliably elect Democrats.

Colorado State House District 10 (HD 10): Safe Democrat. Open. CO Maps HD 10 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 11 (HD 11): Safe Democrat. Jack Pommer (D) Junior* Contact: http://www.hd11.org/ CO Maps HD 11 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 12 (HD 12): Safe Democrat. Paul Weissmann (D) Junior* Contact: http://www.paulinthehouse.com/ CO Maps HD 12 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 13 (HD 13): Safe Democrat. Claire Levy (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.clairelevy.org/ CO Maps HD 13 Page Here.

Electoral vote projection Update July 27, 2008

Here is our new update. As things stand now Obama would win the Presidency with 311 electoral votes to McCain's 227.

Missouri has moved from going from Obama to McCain. It is our only change this week.

Our dirty dozen most competitive states have changed somewhat. Michigan and Pennsylvania are dropping off and becoming safe democratic states. North Carolina and North Dakota are moving into the competitive column.

Here is a list of our top twelve most competitive states as things stand right now.

Leaning McCain:
North Carolina, North Dakota, Montana, Florida, Indiana and Missouri.

Leaning Obama:
Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado and New Mexico.

Our electoral vote homepage is here.

State House Districts: Jefferson County

Map of Jeffco Precincts.
Jefferson County GOP
Jefferson County Democrats

Jefferson County is the front line in the battle for control of the State Legislature. The last three elections have been disastrous for the GOP. The Democrats have made major gains in this suburban county. Here is a recent post from Face the State, a conservative website, that outlines the setbacks the GOP has experienced in Jeffco, as it is known locally.

Colorado State House District 22 (HD 22): Republican Favored. Ken Summers (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.ken4colorado.com/index.html CO Maps HD 22 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 23 (HD 23): Leans Democrat. Gwyn Green (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.gwyngreen.com/ CO Maps HD 23 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 24 (HD 24): Democrat Favored. Open CO Maps HD 24 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 25 (HD 25): Republican Favored. Open CO Maps HD 25 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 26 (HD 26): Democrat Favored. Andrew Kerr (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.andykerr.org/ CO Maps HD 26 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 27 (HD 27): No Clear Favorite. Sara Gagliardi (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.saragagliardi.com/ CO Maps HD 27 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 28 (HD 28): Safe Republican. James Kerr (R) Freshman* Contact: james.kerr.house@state.co.us CO Maps HD 28 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 29 (HD 29): Leans Democrat. Debbie Benefield (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.debbiebenefield.org/ CO Maps HD 29 Page Here.

* Members of the Colorado House can only serve four terms (well four and a half, but that is pretty rare) so we divide them into classes, Freshman, Sophomore, Junior and Senior. Senior's are term limited (unless otherwise noted).

Colorado State House Districts: City and County of Denver

Here is a map State House District 1-9, all centered within the City and County of Denver.

All nine of these House Districts are listed as Safe Democratic Seats. All of them have the majority of their voting populations inside the City and County of Denver. You should click on the link to the CO Map page for each district, CO Maps is a wealth of information.

Colorado State House District 1 (HD 1): Safe Democrat. Jeanne Labuda (D) Freshman* Contact: http://repjeannelabuda.com/ CO Maps HD 1 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 2 (HD 2): Safe Democrat. Mark Ferrandino (D) Appointed Freshman* Contact: mark.ferrandino.house@state.co.us CO Maps HD 2 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 3 (HD 3): Safe Democrat. Anne McGihon (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.annemcgihon.com/ CO Maps HD 3 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 4 (HD 4): Safe Democrat. K.Jerry Frangas (D) Junior* Contact: kjerry.frangas.house@state.co.us CO Maps HD 4 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 5 (HD 5): Safe Democrat. Joel Judd (D) Junior* Contact: http://www.joeljudd.com/ CO Maps HD 5 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 6 (HD 6): Safe Democrat. Open CO Maps HD 6 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 7 (HD 7): Safe Democrat. Terrance Carroll (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.terrancecarroll.com/ CO Maps HD 7 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 8 (HD 8): Safe Democrat. Open CO Maps HD 8 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 9 (HD 9): Safe Democrat. Open CO Maps HD 9 Page Here.

* Members of the Colorado House can only serve four terms (well four and a half, but that is pretty rare) so we divide them into classes, Freshman, Sophomore, Junior and Senior. Senior's are term limited (unless otherwise noted).

Honey Moon for Colorado Governor Bill Ritter Seems to be Over.

The Democratic party has had a remarkable rise in Colorado. In 2002 the GOP held both houses of the State Legislature, the Governor's office, five out of seven US House Seats and both Senate Seats. Today the Colorado Republican party has lost two of its five US House Seats, a Senate Seat, the Governor's mansion and both houses of the State Legislature. It looked like the DNC convention scheduled for late August in Denver was going to be the crowning moment of the new Democratic alignment.

However, over the past few days a few news stories have come out that suggest that the Democratic hold on Colorado may be more tenuous than anyone would have thought a few weeks ago. A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows that the percentage of Coloradans that rate Governor Bill Ritter as either doing a "good" or "excellent" job has slipped by 13 points since May. The poll seems to be flawed in that it doesn't just ask if you approve or disapprove of the Governor's job. Instead it had many more options. The analysis from later in the Denver Post story seems to have captured more of what is going on in Colorado.

He has become a more partisan-appearing figure," Ciruli (a Denver based Pollster and Political Analyst) said of Ritter. "He (was elected) over (Republican Bob) Beauprez with a very significant amount of Republican support and a strong number of unaffiliated voters. He appeared at that time to be more conservative and not so controversial."
Ciruli said Ritter's efforts to give collective-bargaining rights to state employees stoked opposition among Republicans in particular.
The governor's standing, Ciruli said, also suffered when a district judge this year ruled a Ritter-backed property-tax freeze unconstitutional. The ruling is being appealed.
Ritter also has faced pushback over his support for eliminating a tax break for the oil and gas industry and over his support for restrictions on expanding oil and gas development, Ciruli said.
His policies aside, Ritter's lower poll numbers this summer also may reflect a general unease among voters in a time of rising gasoline and food prices, Ciruli said.
"One of the factors is that even in Colorado, which to some extent has been immune to the repercussions of the declining economy, it's finally caught up to us," he said.

In a Op-Ed piece from earlier this week Ciruli outlined how significantly Ritter's polling drop is:

Surprisingly, new Democratic Gov. Bill Ritter may be in trouble. When compared with his Montana counterpart, Gov. Brian Schweitzer, in recent Rasmussen polls, Ritter's job rating lags behind Schweitzer by 19 points. Only 45 percent of Colorado voters gave Ritter an excellent or good job rating, whereas 64 percent of Montanans rated Schweitzer as doing an excellent or good job.

On top of all of this the State Democrats have to deal with rising scandals associated with the Democratic National Convention in Denver. Security concerns have become a giant head ache. Additionally, a scandal over the DNC not paying gas taxes hit this week.

Members of the committee hosting the Democratic National Convention are filling their car gas tanks at city-owned gas pumps, avoiding state and federal fuel taxes.

Even the Denver Post's left center Op Ed page chastised the apparent no tax deal for the DNC.

So, let's get this straight: While the rest of us poor schlubs have been grimacing as we put $4 a gallon gas into our cars, local organizers of the Democratic National Convention have been pumping tax-free gas into theirs?
That's just wrong. The local committee hosting the DNC ought to pay the same state and federal taxes — which amount to 40 cents a gallon — that the rest of us pay.
The disclosure came at a regular Denver City Council meeting Tuesday, and by the end of the day it seemed that everyone involved was quickly backpedaling and promising that local organizers indeed would be paying taxes on gas.
Good. But the larger issue, of course, is whether and how taxpayers might find themselves subsidizing the DNC.,,

As for the gas situation, we've heard it was an effort to give local DNC organizers a secure place to fill up, a concern should they have dignitaries in the car.
That sounds like a stretch. If you're ferrying some Democratic hotshot from the airport to a hotel, wouldn't you fill up first? It doesn't seem plausible that you'd take such a guest by the city yards to tank up.
A host committee spokesman told the Rocky Mountain News that they used city pumps because it's safer and the gas isn't "tainted."

US Senate Projection Update 22 July 2008

Here is a look at the elite eight closest Senate Races:

Alaska: Weak Democratic Pickup (60% probability)
Louisiana: Weak Democratic Hold (60%)
Maine: Moderate Republican Hold (70%)
Minnesota: Moderate Republican Hold (67%)
Mississippi Special: Weak Democratic Pickup (60%)
New Hampshire: Strong Democratic Pickup (78%)
North Carolina: Moderate Republican Hold (61%)
Oregon: Weak Republican Hold (57%)

Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico are all such likely Democratic pickups that they are no longer on our elite eight seats to watch but they are worth a mention.

Our projection as it stands now: Democrats (Including Lieberman and Sanders) 57 Republicans 43. No change from last projection.

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

Electoral Vote Projection Update July 18, 2008

Here is our new update. As things stand now Obama would win the Presidency with 322 electoral votes to McCain's 216.

There is no change from our last projection.

Our dirty dozen most competitive states have changed somewhat. Michigan and Pennsylvania are dropping off and becoming safe democratic states. North Carolina and North Dakota are moving into the competitive column.

Here is a list of our top twelve most competitive states as things stand right now.

Leaning McCain:
North Carolina, North Dakota, Montana, Florida and Indiana.

Leaning Obama:
Nevada, Missouri, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico.

Our electoral vote homepage is here.

Colorado State Senate Update July 17, 2008

Our current projection for the State Senate is D 18 R 15 Toss Up 2

Click on the image above for a bigger version of the map.

Senate District 16 and 19 are the most competitive districts right now. Even if the GOP picks up both seats they will not be able to gain control of the State Senate. Maybe if they could get a candidate for district 20? Anyway, it looks like Jefferson County will be the front line for this years battle for the State Senate.

If you have any comments, suggestions, inside info or corrections, please e-mail us at milehighdelphi@yahoo.com.