US Senate Projection Update June 24th 2008

Our new Senate Projection is unchanged from our last one. We forecast the Democrats picking up six seats.

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

Electoral Vote Projection Update June 24th

Here is our new update. As things stand now Obama would win the Presidency with 322 electoral votes to McCain's 216.

Two more states have gone into the Democratic column this week, Nevada and Missouri.

Our electoral vote homepage is here.

US Senate Projection Update 20 June 2008

Like with our Electoral Projection we will no longer have toss ups. As things stand now our map stays the same, with the Democrats picking up six seats. Including Liberman and Sanders, the two independents who caucus with the Democrats, the Senate will be made up of 57 Democrats and 43 Republicans after the election of 2008.

Below is a chart of the ten closest races:

Alaska D 52.5% Pick Up
Louisiana D 55% Hold
Minnesota R 59.9% Hold
Mississippi (Special) D 60% Pick Up
Oregon R 64.2 Hold
Colorado D 65% Pick Up
New Hampshire D 68% Pick Up
North Carolina R 70% Hold
New Mexico D 75% Pick Up
Virginia D 89.9% Pick Up

Race specific pages will be coming up in the next few weeks.

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

Electoral Vote Projection Mid June 2008

After much thought we have decided to modify our projection. We will no longer have toss up states.

Our electoral vote home page is here.

Our current projection shows Obama beating McCain 306 Electoral votes to 232.

Here is a quick look at the dirty dozen most competitive states:

Leaning Republican:

Nevada 51% probability of voting for McCain.
Missouri 57.5% probability of voting for McCain.
Florida 71% probability of voting for McCain.
Indiana 75% probability of voting for McCain.

Leaning Democrat:

Virgina 50.1% probability of voting for Obama.
New Hampshire 54% probability of voting for Obama.
Ohio 62.9% probability of voting for Obama.
Colorado 67% probability of voting for Obama.
New Mexico 68.5% probability of voting for Obama.
Pennsylvania 75% probability of voting for Obama.
Iowa 76% probability of voting for Obama.
Michigan 77% probability of voting for Obama.

Every other state a better than 80% probability of voting for either one of the candidates.

A closer look at polling, along with a new senate update will be up this week.

Colorado Politics 101: How liberal our our Democrats?

Every year the National Journal publishes a list of the members of the House and Senate, they are ranked, based upon their voting behavior, from most liberal to most conservative.

First we will look at Colorado's Democratic Delegation.

Senator Salazar is ranked as the 42nd most liberal Senator, placing him squarely in moderate territory among such Senators as Jim Webb (D) of Virginia, Byron Dorgan (D) of North Dakota and Joe Liberman (ind. D) of Conn.

As for the House Delegation. Representaive Degette (Denver) is far and away the most liberal member of the Colorado Delegation. She is ranked as the 36th most liberal member of the House. The other three Democrats are bunched together towards the more moderate wing of the party. Perlmutter ranks at 150th, Udall ranks at 181st and Salazar ranks as 190th.

Overall we can see that the Colorado Democratic Delegation is more moderate than the average Democrat, with only Diana Degette ranking among the most liberal members of the Congress.

US Senate Projection Update 1 June 2008

US Senate Homepage

Current Projection: Democrats gain 6 seats. Results D-57 R-43

The elite eight most competitive Senate Races:

Races are listed by how competitive they are based upon Intrade probabilities:

(1) Previous Rank (4)

Alaska: Stevens (R) inc vs. Begich (D) Intrade gives Begich a 50% probability of winning. This race has been all over the map, in April Begich went from a probability of winning in the mid 30% up to 60%. During the last few weeks the race has tightened up again.

Average of the polls shows Begich leading Stevens 46.75% to 42.75%.

Pollster page for Stevens vs. Begich.

Alaska Intrade page here.

Democrat pickup.

(2) Previous Rank (2)

Louisiana: Landrieu (D) inc vs. Kennedy (R) Intrade gives Landrieu a 55% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Kennedy trailing Landrieu 41.67% to 44.67%.

Intrade Louisiana page here.

Pollster page for Kennedy vs. Landrieu.

No change in party control.

(2) Previous Rank (3)

Minnesota: Coleman (R) inc vs. Franken (D) Intrade gives Coleman a 55% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Coleman beating Franken 49.8% to 44%.

Intrade Minnesota page here.

Pollster page for Coleman vs. Franken.

No change in party control.

(4) Previously not ranked.
North Carolina: Dole (R) inc vs. Hagen (D) Intrade gives Dole a 57.5% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Dole leading Hagen 47.7% to 44.5%.

Intrade NC page here.

Pollster page for Dole vs. Hagen.

No change in party control.

(5)Previous Rank (6)
Colorado: Open Udall (D) vs. Schaeffer (R) Intrade gives Udall a 60% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Udall beating Schaffer 46.8% to 41.5%.

Intrade Colorado page here.

Polls for Schaeffer vs. Udall.

Democrat pickup.

(6) Previous Rank (1)

Mississippi: To replace Trent Lott. Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D) Intrade gives Musgrove a 63% probability of picking up Trent Lott's former seat in this special election.

The average of the polls shows Wicker edging Musgrove 44.7% to 44%. Pollster's Mississippi special election page is here.

Intrade's Mississippi Special page is here.

Democrat pickup.

(7) Previously Not Ranked

Oregon: Smith (R) inc vs. Merkley (D). Intrade gives Smith a 64.2% probability of retaining his seat this election.

Average of the polls shows Smith beating Merkley 44.9% to 42.4%. Polster page for Smith vs. Merkley is here.

Intrade page for Oregon is here.

No change in party control.

(8)Previous (7)

New Mexico: Open Udall (D) vs. Pearce (R) or Wilson (R) Intrade gives Udall a 70% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Udall beating Pearce 55.5% to 37.4% and Udall beating Wilson 58.9% to 35.6%.

Polls for Udall vs. Wilson and for Udall vs. Pearce.

Intrade NM page here.
Democrat pickup.

No longer in the Elite eight, but worth of note due to party change:

New Hampshire: Sununu (R) inc vs. Shaheen (D) Intrade gives Shaheen a 67.5% probability of winning.

Pollster has the average of the polls showing Shaheen beating Sununu 49.7% to 40.2%.

Pollster Poll Average

Democrat pickup.


Virginia: Open Gilmore (R) vs. Warner (D) Intrade gives Warner a 82.5% probability of winning.

Pollster is showing Warner beating Gilmore 55.4% to 37.6%.

Pollster Poll Average

Democrat pickup.