Thursday, January 14, 2010

Jan 2010 Election Forecast Update

Well, as we said about two months ago, Bill Ritter will not be the next Governor of Colorado. We are going to go ahead right now and label his administration as a Failure, that is right, your first and last source for Bill Ritter's place in history. Think of him as the Jimmy Carter or Richard Nixon of Colorado. We aren't anti-Democrat, our only goal is to predict the outcome of elections, at least for a few more days, so lets dive right into our new projections.

Federal Offices:

US Senate: Barely Republican Pickup.

You can't blame Democratic Senator Bennet. Really, you have to respect him, he said that he would vote for a health care bill even if it costs him his job. Looks like it will.

CD-1 (Denver): Safe Democrat
CD-2 (Boulder): Safe Democrat
CD-3 (Western Slope): Likely Democrat
CD-4 (North and East Colorado): Likely GOP Pickup
CD-5 (Colorado Springs): Safe GOP
CD-6 (Southern Denver Suburbs): Safe GOP
CD-7 (Northern Denver Suburbs): Leans Democrat

As we see it now, everything in Colorado depends on the national environment in a few months (duh!). If the GOP picks up a large number of seats then CD 7 and 3 will become competitive, if the GOP underperforms normal midterm patterns then only CD-4 will switch. Much remains to be seen, but we will call it now, CD-4 is gone for the Democrats.

Local Races:

Governor: Toss Up.

Bill Ritter dropping out and Hickenlooper jumping in make this race competitive again. However, 2010 isn't 2006. Hickenlooper has never run for office outside of Denver. He has never been vetted by true opposition. We think that we can remember great outrage years ago when we published a photo of Mayor Hickenlooper with a "cross dresser." We haven't bothered to look for that photo, but we are certain that voters won't see Mayor Hickenlooper as an outsider, he has been a part of everyday life in Colorado for the past decade.

Secretary of State, Attorney General and Treasurer. Forecasts won't be up until Summer.

State Senate: Likely Democratic Control

The math is just too difficult for the GOP as the numbers stand right now. We are confident that our model can predict these races; money will be the key, if you see huge GOP advantages in some competitive districts, look for our forecast to change.

State House: Leans Democratic Control

The math is actually better for the GOP here.

We are not as down on the Mile High State's Democrats as a recent LA Times story where the Times stated that "Analysts think Democrats could even lose their majorities in the Legislature."
We haven't met anyone who is not puffing some Medical Marijuana who thinks that.

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