State House Districts: Douglas County and Teller County.

Colorado State House District 43 (HD 43): Safe Republican. Frank McNulty (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.frankmcnulty.com/ CO Maps HD 43 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 44 (HD 44): Safe Republican. Mike May (R) Junior* Contact: http://www.mike-may.org/ CO Maps HD 44 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 45 (HD 45): Safe Republican. Open CO Maps HD 45 Page Here.

State House Districts: Arapahoe and Elbert County.

Colorado State House District 36 (HD 36): Democrat Favored. Open CO Maps HD 36 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 37 (HD 37): Safe Republican. Spencer Swalm (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.swalmforhd37.org/ CO Maps HD 37 Page Here. Spencer Swalm Wikipedia page here.

Colorado State House District 38 (HD 38): Leans Democrat. Joe Rice (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.votejoerice.com/ CO Maps HD 38 Page Here. Joe Rice Wikipedia page here.

Colorado State House District 39 (HD 39): Safe Republican. David Balmer (R) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.davidbalmer.com/ CO Maps HD 39 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 40 (HD 40): Safe Republican Pickup. Open CO Maps HD 40 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 41 (HD 41): Safe Democrat. Nancy Todd (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.nancytodd.org/ CO Maps HD 41 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 42 (HD 42): Safe Democrat. Open CO Maps HD 42 Page Here.

State House Districts: El Paso and Fremont County.

Colorado State House District 14 (HD 14): Safe Republican. Kent Lambert (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.kentlambert.com/ CO Maps HD 14 Page Here. Kent Lambert Wikipedia page here.

Colorado State House District 15 (HD 15): Safe Republican. Douglas Bruce (R) Red Shirt Freshman* Contact: http://www.state.co.us/gov_dir/leg_dir/House/members/Hou15.html CO Maps HD 15 Page Here. Douglas Bruce Wikipedia page here.

Colorado State House District 16 (HD 16): Safe Republican. Larry Liston (R) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.larrylistonforhd16.com/ CO Maps HD 16 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 17 (HD 17): Republican Favored. Stella Hicks (R) Freshman* Contact: stella.hicks.house@state.co.us CO Maps HD 17 Page Here. Stella Hicks Wikipedia Page here.

Colorado State House District 18 (HD 18): Democrat Favored. Michael Merrifield (D) Junior* Contact: http://www.michaelmerrifield.org/ CO Maps HD 18 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 19 (HD 19): Safe Republican. Marsha Looper (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.gomarsha.org/ CO Maps HD 19 Page Here. Marsha Looper Wikipedia here.

Colorado State House District 20 (HD 20): Safe Republican. Amy Stephens (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.amystephens4hd20.com/ CO Maps HD 20 Page Here. Amy Stephens Wikipedia here.

Colorado State House District 21 (HD 21): Safe Republican. Bob Gardner (R) Sophomore* Contact: bob.gardner.house@state.co.us CO Maps HD 21 Page Here. Bob Gardner Wikipedia here.

State House Districts: Broomfield and Adams County.

Adams County GOP here.

Adams County Democrats here.

Colorado State House District 30 (HD 30): Democrat Favored. Open CO Maps HD 30 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 31 (HD 31): Leans Democrat. Judy Solano (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.judysolano.com/ CO Maps HD 31 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 32 (HD 32): Safe Democrat. Edward Casso (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.edwardcassofor32.org/ CO Maps HD 32 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 33 (HD 33): To Close to Call. Dianne Primavera (D) Freshman* Contact: http://dianneprimavera.com/ CO Maps HD 33 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 34 (HD 34): Safe Democrat. John Soper (D) Freshman* Contact: johnsoper235@comcast.net CO Maps HD 34 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 35 (HD 35): Safe Democrat. Cherylin Peniston (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.cherylinpeniston.com/ CO Maps HD 35 Page Here.

State House Districts: Boulder, Gilpin and Clear Creek Counties. HD 10-13

The four House Districts that are centered around Boulder County reliably elect Democrats.

Colorado State House District 10 (HD 10): Safe Democrat. Open. CO Maps HD 10 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 11 (HD 11): Safe Democrat. Jack Pommer (D) Junior* Contact: http://www.hd11.org/ CO Maps HD 11 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 12 (HD 12): Safe Democrat. Paul Weissmann (D) Junior* Contact: http://www.paulinthehouse.com/ CO Maps HD 12 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 13 (HD 13): Safe Democrat. Claire Levy (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.clairelevy.org/ CO Maps HD 13 Page Here.

Electoral vote projection Update July 27, 2008

Here is our new update. As things stand now Obama would win the Presidency with 311 electoral votes to McCain's 227.

Missouri has moved from going from Obama to McCain. It is our only change this week.

Our dirty dozen most competitive states have changed somewhat. Michigan and Pennsylvania are dropping off and becoming safe democratic states. North Carolina and North Dakota are moving into the competitive column.

Here is a list of our top twelve most competitive states as things stand right now.

Leaning McCain:
North Carolina, North Dakota, Montana, Florida, Indiana and Missouri.

Leaning Obama:
Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado and New Mexico.

Our electoral vote homepage is here.

State House Districts: Jefferson County

Map of Jeffco Precincts.
Jefferson County GOP
Jefferson County Democrats

Jefferson County is the front line in the battle for control of the State Legislature. The last three elections have been disastrous for the GOP. The Democrats have made major gains in this suburban county. Here is a recent post from Face the State, a conservative website, that outlines the setbacks the GOP has experienced in Jeffco, as it is known locally.

Colorado State House District 22 (HD 22): Republican Favored. Ken Summers (R) Freshman* Contact: http://www.ken4colorado.com/index.html CO Maps HD 22 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 23 (HD 23): Leans Democrat. Gwyn Green (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.gwyngreen.com/ CO Maps HD 23 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 24 (HD 24): Democrat Favored. Open CO Maps HD 24 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 25 (HD 25): Republican Favored. Open CO Maps HD 25 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 26 (HD 26): Democrat Favored. Andrew Kerr (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.andykerr.org/ CO Maps HD 26 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 27 (HD 27): No Clear Favorite. Sara Gagliardi (D) Freshman* Contact: http://www.saragagliardi.com/ CO Maps HD 27 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 28 (HD 28): Safe Republican. James Kerr (R) Freshman* Contact: james.kerr.house@state.co.us CO Maps HD 28 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 29 (HD 29): Leans Democrat. Debbie Benefield (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.debbiebenefield.org/ CO Maps HD 29 Page Here.

* Members of the Colorado House can only serve four terms (well four and a half, but that is pretty rare) so we divide them into classes, Freshman, Sophomore, Junior and Senior. Senior's are term limited (unless otherwise noted).

Colorado State House Districts: City and County of Denver

Here is a map State House District 1-9, all centered within the City and County of Denver.

All nine of these House Districts are listed as Safe Democratic Seats. All of them have the majority of their voting populations inside the City and County of Denver. You should click on the link to the CO Map page for each district, CO Maps is a wealth of information.

Colorado State House District 1 (HD 1): Safe Democrat. Jeanne Labuda (D) Freshman* Contact: http://repjeannelabuda.com/ CO Maps HD 1 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 2 (HD 2): Safe Democrat. Mark Ferrandino (D) Appointed Freshman* Contact: mark.ferrandino.house@state.co.us CO Maps HD 2 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 3 (HD 3): Safe Democrat. Anne McGihon (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.annemcgihon.com/ CO Maps HD 3 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 4 (HD 4): Safe Democrat. K.Jerry Frangas (D) Junior* Contact: kjerry.frangas.house@state.co.us CO Maps HD 4 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 5 (HD 5): Safe Democrat. Joel Judd (D) Junior* Contact: http://www.joeljudd.com/ CO Maps HD 5 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 6 (HD 6): Safe Democrat. Open CO Maps HD 6 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 7 (HD 7): Safe Democrat. Terrance Carroll (D) Sophomore* Contact: http://www.terrancecarroll.com/ CO Maps HD 7 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 8 (HD 8): Safe Democrat. Open CO Maps HD 8 Page Here.

Colorado State House District 9 (HD 9): Safe Democrat. Open CO Maps HD 9 Page Here.

* Members of the Colorado House can only serve four terms (well four and a half, but that is pretty rare) so we divide them into classes, Freshman, Sophomore, Junior and Senior. Senior's are term limited (unless otherwise noted).

Honey Moon for Colorado Governor Bill Ritter Seems to be Over.

The Democratic party has had a remarkable rise in Colorado. In 2002 the GOP held both houses of the State Legislature, the Governor's office, five out of seven US House Seats and both Senate Seats. Today the Colorado Republican party has lost two of its five US House Seats, a Senate Seat, the Governor's mansion and both houses of the State Legislature. It looked like the DNC convention scheduled for late August in Denver was going to be the crowning moment of the new Democratic alignment.

However, over the past few days a few news stories have come out that suggest that the Democratic hold on Colorado may be more tenuous than anyone would have thought a few weeks ago. A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows that the percentage of Coloradans that rate Governor Bill Ritter as either doing a "good" or "excellent" job has slipped by 13 points since May. The poll seems to be flawed in that it doesn't just ask if you approve or disapprove of the Governor's job. Instead it had many more options. The analysis from later in the Denver Post story seems to have captured more of what is going on in Colorado.

He has become a more partisan-appearing figure," Ciruli (a Denver based Pollster and Political Analyst) said of Ritter. "He (was elected) over (Republican Bob) Beauprez with a very significant amount of Republican support and a strong number of unaffiliated voters. He appeared at that time to be more conservative and not so controversial."
Ciruli said Ritter's efforts to give collective-bargaining rights to state employees stoked opposition among Republicans in particular.
The governor's standing, Ciruli said, also suffered when a district judge this year ruled a Ritter-backed property-tax freeze unconstitutional. The ruling is being appealed.
Ritter also has faced pushback over his support for eliminating a tax break for the oil and gas industry and over his support for restrictions on expanding oil and gas development, Ciruli said.
His policies aside, Ritter's lower poll numbers this summer also may reflect a general unease among voters in a time of rising gasoline and food prices, Ciruli said.
"One of the factors is that even in Colorado, which to some extent has been immune to the repercussions of the declining economy, it's finally caught up to us," he said.

In a Op-Ed piece from earlier this week Ciruli outlined how significantly Ritter's polling drop is:

Surprisingly, new Democratic Gov. Bill Ritter may be in trouble. When compared with his Montana counterpart, Gov. Brian Schweitzer, in recent Rasmussen polls, Ritter's job rating lags behind Schweitzer by 19 points. Only 45 percent of Colorado voters gave Ritter an excellent or good job rating, whereas 64 percent of Montanans rated Schweitzer as doing an excellent or good job.

On top of all of this the State Democrats have to deal with rising scandals associated with the Democratic National Convention in Denver. Security concerns have become a giant head ache. Additionally, a scandal over the DNC not paying gas taxes hit this week.

Members of the committee hosting the Democratic National Convention are filling their car gas tanks at city-owned gas pumps, avoiding state and federal fuel taxes.

Even the Denver Post's left center Op Ed page chastised the apparent no tax deal for the DNC.

So, let's get this straight: While the rest of us poor schlubs have been grimacing as we put $4 a gallon gas into our cars, local organizers of the Democratic National Convention have been pumping tax-free gas into theirs?
That's just wrong. The local committee hosting the DNC ought to pay the same state and federal taxes — which amount to 40 cents a gallon — that the rest of us pay.
The disclosure came at a regular Denver City Council meeting Tuesday, and by the end of the day it seemed that everyone involved was quickly backpedaling and promising that local organizers indeed would be paying taxes on gas.
Good. But the larger issue, of course, is whether and how taxpayers might find themselves subsidizing the DNC.,,

As for the gas situation, we've heard it was an effort to give local DNC organizers a secure place to fill up, a concern should they have dignitaries in the car.
That sounds like a stretch. If you're ferrying some Democratic hotshot from the airport to a hotel, wouldn't you fill up first? It doesn't seem plausible that you'd take such a guest by the city yards to tank up.
A host committee spokesman told the Rocky Mountain News that they used city pumps because it's safer and the gas isn't "tainted."

US Senate Projection Update 22 July 2008

Here is a look at the elite eight closest Senate Races:

Alaska: Weak Democratic Pickup (60% probability)
Louisiana: Weak Democratic Hold (60%)
Maine: Moderate Republican Hold (70%)
Minnesota: Moderate Republican Hold (67%)
Mississippi Special: Weak Democratic Pickup (60%)
New Hampshire: Strong Democratic Pickup (78%)
North Carolina: Moderate Republican Hold (61%)
Oregon: Weak Republican Hold (57%)

Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico are all such likely Democratic pickups that they are no longer on our elite eight seats to watch but they are worth a mention.

Our projection as it stands now: Democrats (Including Lieberman and Sanders) 57 Republicans 43. No change from last projection.

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

Electoral Vote Projection Update July 18, 2008

Here is our new update. As things stand now Obama would win the Presidency with 322 electoral votes to McCain's 216.

There is no change from our last projection.

Our dirty dozen most competitive states have changed somewhat. Michigan and Pennsylvania are dropping off and becoming safe democratic states. North Carolina and North Dakota are moving into the competitive column.

Here is a list of our top twelve most competitive states as things stand right now.

Leaning McCain:
North Carolina, North Dakota, Montana, Florida and Indiana.

Leaning Obama:
Nevada, Missouri, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico.

Our electoral vote homepage is here.

Colorado State Senate Update July 17, 2008

Our current projection for the State Senate is D 18 R 15 Toss Up 2

Click on the image above for a bigger version of the map.

Senate District 16 and 19 are the most competitive districts right now. Even if the GOP picks up both seats they will not be able to gain control of the State Senate. Maybe if they could get a candidate for district 20? Anyway, it looks like Jefferson County will be the front line for this years battle for the State Senate.

If you have any comments, suggestions, inside info or corrections, please e-mail us at milehighdelphi@yahoo.com.

Schaffer vs Udall Debate Reaction.

We here at MHD try our best to be non-biased. The conventional wisdom seems to be coming down on the side of Bob Shaffer winning the first debate in the Colorado senate race.

Here is a link to Channel 9. From their page you can watch the video yourself. Watch the debate here and make up your own mind.

"Colorado Model" Making Media Waves.

In a recent Weekly Standard article, Fred Barnes outlined "The Colorado Model."

The Democratic surge in Colorado reflects the national trend, but it involves a great deal more. There's something unique going on in Colorado that, if copied in other states, has the potential to produce sweeping Democratic gains nationwide. That something is the "Colorado Model," and it's certain to be a major topic of discussion when Democrats convene in Denver in the last week of August for their national convention.

While the Colorado Model isn't a secret, it hasn't drawn much national attention either. Democrats, for now anyway, seem wary of touting it. One reason for their reticence is that it depends partly on wealthy liberals' spending tons of money not only on "independent expenditures" to attack Republican office-seekers but also to create a vast infrastructure of liberal organizations that produces an anti-Republican, anti-conservative echo chamber in politics and the media.

Liberal reaction in Colorado has been mixed. Colorado Pols is a daily read for us here at Mile High Delphi. Colorado Pols is dominated by liberals, but it is still the best place to get the "inside baseball" gossip on Colorado politics.

...total spending (hard and soft) on campaigns in Colorado leans our way for 2004 and 2006. Not by a huge amount, but thanks to a ton of small donors -- and above all Jared, Tim, Pat, and Rutt -- we actually have outspent them. -Boulder Dem

Reading through the posts on Colorado Pols, it is easy to see that the liberal prognosticoti see that the main reason that they have won in Colorado is because they are right, not because they are logistically better prepared now than in the early part of the decade.

The conservatives fail to reconize that a great swath of the unaffiliated voters in Colorado have turned into reliable democratic voters. They can ignore these voters at their own peril.

Here at MHD we have seen the "Colorado Model" for years. However, we don't believe that it is as simple as the "Gang of Four" or that the GOP was too conservative. Amendment 27, passed in 2002, critically wounded the ability of the GOP to fundraise. Until the GOP learns to compete under the rules of 27, the Colorado Model will continue.

US Senate Projection Update 11 July 2008

Here is a look at the elite eight closest Senate Races:

Alaska: Weak Democratic Pickup (59% probability)
Colorado: Strong Democratic Pickup (81%)
Louisiana: Weak Democratic Hold (57%)
Minnesota: Moderate Republican Hold (62%)
Mississippi Special: Moderate Democratic Pickup (61%)
New Hampshire: Strong Democratic Pickup (75%)
North Carolina: Moderate Republican Hold (65%)
Oregon: Weak Republican Hold (59%)

Virginia and New Mexico are both such likely Democratic pickups that they are no longer on our elite eight seats to watch but they are worth a mention.

Our projection as it stands now: Democrats (Including Lieberman and Sanders) 57 Republicans 43. No change from last projection.

US Senate Projection Home Page here.

Electoral Vote Projection Update July 8, 2008

Here is our new update. As things stand now Obama would win the Presidency with 322 electoral votes to McCain's 216.

There is no change from our last projection.

Our dirty dozen most competitive states have changed somewhat. Iowa is dropping off and becoming a safe democratic state and surprizingly enough Montana is moving into the competitive column, although we are still giving its votes to McCain.

Here is a list of our top twelve most competitive states as things stand right now.

Leaning McCain:
Montana, Florida and Indiana.

Leaning Obama:
Nevada, Missouri, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Our electoral vote homepage is here.