Colorado Election Results.

Here is how Colorado's political landscape looks after the Democratic wave that swept the nation yesterday.

State wide the Democrats picked up two seats:

Bill Ritter won election as Colorado Governor.

Cary Kennedy won election as State Treasurer.

The Republicans kept two state wide seats:

John Suthers won election as AG.

Mike Coffman won election as Secretary of State.

We correctly predicted all of these races.

The Democrats picked up the 7th US House District (Northern Denver Suburbs).

The Democrats now control 4 out of 7 Congressional Districts in Colorado.

We correctly predicted all of those races.

The Democrats also increased their majorities in both houses of the State Legislature.

We correctly predicted every race for the State Senate.

We correctly predicted 59 out of 65 State House races.

Actually we are being hard on ourselves, we really only missed two races, but we thought that the GOP would split the toss-up races, they only won 2 out of 12.

One other thing. We called every US Senate race and we only missed the scope of the Democratic win, off by only about 5-7 seats. Not too bad.

On a state wide basis we easily achieved our hope for 95% accuracy.

Nationally, we kicked butt. A bad election for the Republicans. A good one for us.

Maybe next time we can get every single Colorado State House seat?

Stay tuned...in 2008 we have a Presidential Race and a US Senate race in Colorado. Nobody does anything like this, we're the one.

Top of the Ticket Results:

Governor: Bill Ritter (D)
Sec. of State: Mike Coffman (R)
Treasurer: Too Close To Call Hillman (R) Leads by 5K votes.
Attorney General: John Suthers (R)

Congressional Seats:

CO-1 (Denver) DeGette (D)
CO-2 (Boulder) Udall (D)
CO-3 (Western Slope) Salazar (D)
CO-4 (Eastern Plains) Too Close To Call Musgrave (R) Leading by 7K votes.
CO-5 (Colorado Springs) Lamborn (R)
CO-6 (Southern Denver Suburbs) Tancredo (R)
CO-7 (Northern Denver Suburbs) Perlmutter (D)

Projected Makeup D-4 R-3

State House Results:

33 needed for control: GOP 26 Dem 37 Too Close To Call 2

Incumbent = *

Tossups: 12
HD-17: Mark Cloer* (R) vs. Christine Varney (D) GOP Hold
HD-23: Ramey Johnson (R) vs. Gwen Green* (D) Dem Hold
HD-26: Andy Kerr* (D) vs. Glenn Rhoades (R) Dem Hold
HD-27: Bill Crane* (R) vs. Sara Gagliardi (D) Dem Pickup
HD-29: Debbie Benefield* (D) vs. Affie Ellis (R) Dem Hold
HD-33: Bill Berens* (R) vs. Dianne Primavera (D) Dem Pickup
HD-50: Dave Owen (R) vs. James Reisberg* (D) Dem Hold
HD-52: John Kefalas (D) vs. Bob McCluskey* (R) (Too Close To Call)
HD-53: Randy Fischer (D) vs. Anne Yeldell (R) Dem Hold
HD-55: Bernie Buescher* (D) vs. Bob Caskey (R) (Too Close To Call)
HD-56: Ken Chlouber (R) vs. Dan Gibbs (D) Dem Hold
HD-59: Joe Colgan (D) vs Ellen Roberts (R) GOP Hold

Leans/Likely Democrat: 8
HD-11: Jack Pommer* (D) vs. Catherine Jarrett (R) Dem Hold
HD-18: Michael Merrifield* (D) vs. Kyle Fisk (R) Dem Hold
HD-30: Darrin Dutcher (R) vs. Mary Hodge* (D) Dem Hold
HD-31: Rex Pierce (R) vs. Judy Solano* (D) Dem Hold
HD-36: Brian Boney (R) vs. Morgan Carroll* (D)Dem Hold
HD-41: Clyde Robinson (R) vs. Nancy Todd* (D)Dem Hold
HD-47: Liane "Buffie" McFadyen* (D) vs. Jeff Shaw (R)Dem Hold
HD-64: John Albright (R) vs. Wesley McKinley* (D) Dem Hold

Leans/Likely Republican: 15
HD-19: Kenneth Barela (D) vs. Marsha Looper (R) GOP Hold
HD-22: Jayson Haberkorn (D) vs. Kenneth Summers (R)GOP Hold
HD-25: Rob Witwer* (R) vs. Michael Daniels (D)GOP Hold
HD-28: James Kerr* (R) vs. Thomas Dittemore (D)GOP Hold
HD-37: Angela Engel (D) vs. Spencer Swalm (R) GOP Hold
HD-38: Matt Dunn (R) vs. Joe Rice (D)Dem Pickup
HD-39: David Balmer* (R) vs. Mollie Cullom (D) GOP Hold
HD-40: Debbie Stafford* (R) vs. Matt Bryant (D) GOP Hold
HD-48: Michael Dugan (D) vs. Gleen Vaad (R) GOP Hold
HD-49: Kevin Lundberg* (R) vs Susan Radford (D) GOP Hold
HD-51: Don Marostica (R) vs. Jodi Radke (D)GOP Hold
HD-54: Richard Alward (D) vs. Steven King (R)GOP Hold
HD-57: Andrew Gold (D) vs. Al White* (R) GOP Hold
HD-58: Brian Ahern (D) vs. Ray Rose* (R) GOP Hold
HD-60: Curtis Imrie (D) vs. Tom Massey* (R)GOP Hold

Safe Democrat: 20
HD-1: Jeanne Labuda (D) vs. Aimee Rathburn (R) Dem Hold
HD-2: Mike Cerbo* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-3: Anne McGihon* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-4: Jerry Frangas* (D) vs. Rick Nevin (R) Dem Hold
HD-5: Joel Judd* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-6: Andrew Romanoff* (D) vs. Jeffrey Hecht (R) Dem Hold
HD-7: Terrance Carroll* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-8: Rosemary Marshall* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-9: Alice Borodkin* (D) vs. Jerry Greenheck (R)Dem Hold
HD-10: Alice Madden* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-12: Paul Weissmann* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-13: Claire Levy (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-24: Cheri Jahn* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-32: Edward Casso (D) vs. Tracey Snyder (R)Dem Hold
HD-34: John Soper (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-35: Ruben Pacheco (R) vs. Cherylin Peniston (D)Dem Hold
HD-42: Michael Garcia (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-46: Dorothy Butcher (D) vs. Susan Pelto (R)Dem Hold
HD-61: Kathleen Curry (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-62: Rafael Gallegos* (D) vs. John Sandoval (R)Dem Hold

Safe Republican: 10
HD-14: Kent Lambert (R) vs. Karen Teja (D) GOP Hold
HD-15: Bill Cadman (R) vs. Allison Hunter (D) GOP Hold
HD-16: Larry Liston* (R) unopposed GOP Hold
HD-20: Amy Stephens (R) vs. Janet Hejtmaneck (D)GOP Hold
HD-21: Bob Gardner (R) vs. Anna Lord (D)GOP Hold
HD-43: Allen Dreher (D) vs. Frank McNulty (R)GOP Hold
HD-44: Lois Huff (D) vs. Mike May* (R) GOP Hold
HD-45: Linda Constantine (D) vs. Victor Mitchell (R)GOP Hold
HD-63: Pauline Artery (D) vs. Cory Gardner* (R) GOP Hold
HD-65: Jerry Sonnenberg (R) unopposed GOP Hold

The Democrats have won Control of the Colorado State House.

They also beat our projection, they picked up another Leans GOP seat (HD-38) with Iraq war vet. Joe Rice. It looks like they will keep their other Leans GOP seat (HD-55), Rep. Buescher leads by 2222 votes with 60% of the vote in. The other TCTC race (HD-53) is also a likely Dem. It just doesn't have enough votes counted yet.

Unlike in past years where the GOP has held its own in districts with narrow GOP majorities, the Democrats nearly ran the table. We predicted that they would win 6 of our 12 Toss Ups. But the Democratic wave was too high, the GOP only held 2 of those 12 seats, about 16%. That messes up our projection, the Democrats outperformed our model by 5 seats.

Congratulations Colorado Democrats. Now lets see what the "Colorado Promise" looks like.

State Senate Results:

18 needed for control: D-19 R-15 Too Close To Call-1

Incumbent = *

Tossups:
SD-2:Michael Griego (D) vs. Kenneth Kester* (R) GOP Hold
SD-22:Mike Kopp (R) vs. Paula Noonan (D) GOP Hold

Leans/Likely Democrat:
SD-5:Lewis Entz* (R) vs. Gail Schwartz (D)Too Close To Call
As of 1:15 Schwartz up by 584 votes.
SD-11:Ed Jones* (R) vs. John Morse (D) Democrat Pickup
SD-21:Berry Boyd* (D) vs. Matt Knoedler (R) Democrat Hold
SD-6:Jim Isgar* (D) vs. Ronald Tate (R)Democrat Hold
SD-16:Joan Fitz-Gerald* (D) vs. Marty Neilson (R) Democrat Hold
SD-24:Luis Alvarez (R) vs. Lois Tochtrop* (D) Democrat Hold
SD-20:Maryanne "Moe" Keller* (D) vs. Dick Sargent (R) Democrat Hold

Leans/Likely Republican:
SD-13:Solomon Little Owl (D) vs. Scott Renfroe (R) Republican Hold
SD-07:Dana Barker (D) vs. Joshua Penry (R) Republican Hold
SD-15:Steve Johnson* (R) vs. Jennifer Miller (D) Republican Hold


Safe Democrat:
SD-3:Abel Tapia* (D) unopposed
SD-32:Dave Lewis (R) vs. Chris Romer (D) Democrat Hold
SD-34:Paula Sandoval (D) unopposed


Safe Republican:
SD-1:James Bowen (D) vs. Greg Brophy* (R) GOP Hold
SD-9:Keely Marrs (D) vs. David Schultheis (R) GOP Hold
SD-30:Ted Harvey (R) vs. Shelly Tokerud (D) GOP Hold


Democrats have won Control of the Colorado State Senate.

Results.

Here are some results:

As of 8:23 The Rocky Mountain News has called Bill Ritter (D) the winner for Colorado's Governor.

It appears that Absentee Ballots have been counted first. From the looks of this the Colorado GOP may lose several more State House seats and at least three State Senate seats.

Early Numbers: as of 8:40.

SD-5 (Central Mountains) R-60 D-40 Republican Hold
SD-11 (Colorado Springs) R-40 D-60 Democrat Pickup
SD-21 (Lakewood) R-43.5 D-56.5 Democrat Hold
SD-22 (South-West Suburbs) R-52 D-48 This Doesn't look good for Kopp.

HD-23 (North Lakewood) R-45 D-55 Democrat Hold
HD-27 (Jefferson County) R-49 D-51 This Doesn't look good for Crane. Dem Pickup?
HD-29 (Westminister) R-47 D-53 Democrat Hold
HD-33 (Broomfield) R-44 D-56 Democrat Pickup
HD-38 (Arapahoe County) R-48 D-52 Democrat Pickup (in a GOP Seat)

State House

HD-55: We had this race listed as leans GOP.

Currently it is 56.5% for Democrat Bernie Buescher, 43.5% for Republican Bob Caskey. 30% Reporting as of 8:00.

State-Wide

Governor: We had this race listed as Likely Dem.

Curretly it is Bill Ritter (D) 57.5% and Bob Beauprez (R) with 39.5%.
Less than 1% Reporting as of 8:15.

State Treasurer: We had this race listed as leans Dem.

Currently it is 50.6% for Democrat Cary Kennedy, 49.4% for Republican Mark Hillman. Less than 1% Reporting as of 8:00.

Secretary of State: We had this race listed as Toss Up.

Currently it is 46.5% for Democrat Ken Gordon, 53.5% for Republican Mike Coffman. Less than 1% Reporting as of 8:10.

Attorney General: We had this race listed as Likely GOP.

Currently it is 42.9% for Democrat Fern O'Brien, 53.8% for Republican John Suthers. Less than 1% Reporting as of 8:10.

Final Projections 2006

Federal:

US Senate: D-51 R-49 Net D + 6
US House: D-220 R-215 Net D + 20-24


Some other sites of note:

Senate Projections:
Pollster R 49-53 D 47-51
Tradesports.com GOP control about 70%
Real Clear Politics D-51 R-49 Net D + 6

House Projections:

Tradesports.com House Dem Pickup Predicts D + 20-25

Tradesports.com GOP control about 15%
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Majority Watch D-241 R-194 Net D + 39
Real Clear Politics D-220 R-215 Net D + 18

Colorado Congressional Delegation:

US Senate: No election. Senior Senator Wayne Allard (R) Junior Senator Ken Salazar (D)

US House: Races listed by competitiveness.

CO-7:

It looked like this race was tightening up in Mid October, but recent pulling shows Democrat Ed Perlmutter pulling away from Republican Rick O'Donnell. Our average of the last three polls (from Real Clear Politics) shows Perlmutter winning 50.6% to 43.6%. We looked at past polls (Polling Report via Colorado Media Matters) and found that the polling average in 2002 was R-40.6 D-39.6, and the final results were 47-47. In 2004 the polling average was R-44.3 D-41.3 and the final result was R-55 D-43. All we can say is that the pollsters don't do very well at guessing the final results (in 04 no one saw Beauprez polling any higher than 46% in the final three polls) but the average of the last three polls has predicted the winner the last two times.

As it looks right now, Perlmutter will be the next Representative from Colorado's 7th CD. Keep it as Leans Dem.

(Originally posted Oct 25th)

The race for Bob Beauprez's open Congress seat is really the best race in Colorado. Real Clear Politics has this race listed as Leans Democrat. We agree. There is just too great a political headwind for Rick O'Donnell (R) to overcome as of right now. However, if you look at the poll numbers you can see that Ed Perlmutter's (D) lead in the polls has decreased from about 10% in September to 5.7% today. The most recent RD Strategies poll has the race tied at 47-47. Word on the political grapevine is that internal Perlmutter polling has the race tied also. This race is shaping up to be another down to the wire repeat of 2002, where Beauprez beat Mike Feely by 121 votes. We are very close to moving this race to Toss Up if we see a few more close polls and the polling average goes down below 5%.

CO-4:

This race has tightened up in the last few days. Our polling average has Paccione (D) head of Musgrave 45.3% to 43.6%. This is not a good place for Musgrave. The Reform party candidate has gotten the endorsement of several newspapers in the district, so it is becoming increasingly likely that he may be a spoiler. We still think that Musgrave is the favorite, but not by much. We have moved this race to Leans GOP and it may become a toss-up or Leans Dem by November 7th. If the Democrats take more than 30 seats in this election, Musgrave is toast.

(Original Post Oct 25th)

Marilyn Musgrave (R) will beat Angie Paccione (D). Every year a handful of Democratic Billionaires throw millions into beating Musgrave. Paccione, with her bankruptcy's intimate details splashed across the airwaves isn't the candidate to do it. Real Clear Politics has this race listed as #28 on their House List. Musgrave's impressive polling numbers have us listing this race as Likely GOP. Note to the Billionaires, find a Salazar or a Ritter and you can win this seat, make sure they don't have bounced checks for pizza listed in a bankruptcy.

CO-5: The newspapers have wasted a great deal of ink on this race. Lamborn (R) has pulled into a double digit lead over his Democratic opponent. This race is over. List it as Safe GOP.

No other changes in the other Colorado House Seats. Degette (D) will win in CO-1. Udall (D) will win in CO-2. Salazar (D) will win in CO-3. Tancredo (R) will win in CO-6.



Colorado:
All incumbents marked with *.

Governor: (Open) Beauprez (R) vs. Ritter (D)

Outlook: Likely Dem.

Downlow: Beauprez, the former congressman from CO-7 hasn't been able to pull within 10 points of Democratic former Denver DA Bill Ritter for what seems like forever. There is too strong a national headwind against Republican's, his campaign now is focused on preventing a complete Democratic sweep in Colorado. Beauprez has, at best, less than a 5% chance of winning. Look at the Real Clear Politics page on the Colorado Gubernatorial race for more data.

Secretary of State: (Open) Mike Coffman (R) vs. Ken Gordon (D)

Outlook: Toss Up.

Downlow:

Mike Coffman served as State Treasurer until he left to serve in Iraq's Al Anbar province during the last election (in Iraq). He is an Officer in the Marines.

Ken Gordon is an Democratic State Senator from Denver. He has excellent credentials and has been a beacon of bipartisanship in the State Senate.

With polling numbers showing this race as tied, we can't predict how the undecideds will break. Gordon has some commercials out on the TV, none are negative. To give you an idea how hard it is for Republicans in Colorado, Coffman's Iraqi war service is being described by some as "cashing in." It is reprehensible, and those individuals will go the way of John Kerry, but not this year.

State Treasurer: Mark Hillman* (R) vs. Cary Kennedy (D)

Outlook: Leans Dem.

Downlow:

(Update 11/7/06)

Recent polling shows Kennedy (D) with a high single digit lead over Hillman. She has TV spots up and has spent loads of money.

(Update 11/04/06)

The tone of this race has changed dramatically in the last few days. Incumbent Mark Hillman is not a veteran of any state-wide elections. Cary Kennedy is a Democratic darling. Her work on Amendment 23 (School Funding Autopilot) has made her more of a lightning rod than we could have predicted. Polling in this race is also stuck at basically a tie with undecideds at about 20%. It all depends on how they break, which may all depend on Beauprez.

Attorney General: Fern O'Brien (D) vs. John Suthers* (R)

Outlook: Leans Republican

Downlow:

This is the one bright race that the GOP has. Fern can't raise money and the incumbent looks set to easily defeat her. We did have it listed as Safe GOP, but no Republican is safe this year.

State Senate:

Outlook: R-15 D-20

Downlow: We just can't see how Matt Knoedler (R) can pick up SD-21 (Lakewood) against veteran campaigner Betty Boyd (D). Even during good GOP years Boyd has outperformed what our models say she should do. This year she has outraised him $150,000 to $63,000. Incumbent Lewis Entz (R) SD-5 (Central Mountains) looks like a loser against Gail Schwartz (D). Entz is a moderate, but when it comes to raw politics, that doesn't matter, Democrats are pouring money into this race. We also see Incumbent Ed Jones SD-11 (R) losing a marginal seat in Colorado Springs. In 2002 he won with a registration advantage of 7% for the GOP. He spent $365,000, matching Mariano almost dollar for dollar. Also, Norma Anderson's old district may be up for grabs. Her hand chosen successor, Kiki Traylor lost a bitter primary to Mike Kopp. Paula Noonan looks to outspend Kopp 2-1 or 3-1 as of right now (70K to well over 200K). As we forecast it now. The GOP will be lucky to come out of this with 15 seats.

State House:

Outlook: R-31 D-34

Downlow: Even in a bad GOP year like 2004, the Colorado GOP still won 5 out of 9 seats that our model predicted as toss ups. This year looks really bad for the GOP, but since they see the writing on the wall we think that they can win half of our 12 predicted toss ups. Basically we are forecasting a wash except that the GOP should pick up HD-57. Our model puts that seat at an 81% probability of going Republican.

2006 Election Projections: (11/04/06)

Federal:

US Senate: D-51 R-49 Net D + 6
US House: D-220 R-215 Net D + 18


Some other sites of note:
Senate Projections:
Tradesports.com GOP control about 70%
Real Clear Politics D-51 R 49 Net D + 6

House Projections:

Tradesports.com GOP control about 30%
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Majority Watch D-241 R-194 Net D + 39
Real Clear Politics D-220 R-215 Net D + 18

Colorado Congressional Delegation:

US Senate: No election. Senior Senator Wayne Allard (R) Junior Senator Ken Salazar (D)

US House: Races listed by competitiveness.

CO-7:

It looked like this race was tightening up in Mid October, but recent pulling shows Democrat Ed Perlmutter pulling away from Republican Rick O'Donnell. Our average of the last three polls (from Real Clear Politics) shows Perlmutter winning 50.6% to 43.6%. We looked at past polls (Polling Report via Colorado Media Matters) and found that the polling average in 2002 was R-40.6 D-39.6, and the final results were 47-47. In 2004 the polling average was R-44.3 D-41.3 and the final result was R-55 D-43. All we can say is that the pollsters don't do very well at guessing the final results (in 04 no one saw Beauprez polling any higher than 46% in the final three polls) but the average of the last three polls has predicted the winner the last two times.

As it looks right now, Perlmutter will be the next Representative from Colorado's 7th CD. Keep it as Leans Dem.

(Originally posted Oct 25th)

The race for Bob Beauprez's open Congress seat is really the best race in Colorado. Real Clear Politics has this race listed as Leans Democrat. We agree. There is just too great a political headwind for Rick O'Donnell (R) to overcome as of right now. However, if you look at the poll numbers you can see that Ed Perlmutter's (D) lead in the polls has decreased from about 10% in September to 5.7% today. The most recent RD Strategies poll has the race tied at 47-47. Word on the political grapevine is that internal Perlmutter polling has the race tied also. This race is shaping up to be another down to the wire repeat of 2002, where Beauprez beat Mike Feely by 121 votes. We are very close to moving this race to Toss Up if we see a few more close polls and the polling average goes down below 5%.

CO-4:

This race has tightened up in the last few days. Our polling average has Paccione (D) head of Musgrave 45.3% to 43.6%. This is not a good place for Musgrave. The Reform party candidate has gotten the endorsement of several newspapers in the district, so it is becoming increasingly likely that he may be a spoiler. We still think that Musgrave is the favorite, but not by much. We have moved this race to Leans GOP and it may become a toss-up or Leans Dem by November 7th. If the Democrats take more than 30 seats in this election, Musgrave is toast.

(Original Post Oct 25th)

Marilyn Musgrave (R) will beat Angie Paccione (D). Every year a handful of Democratic Billionaires throw millions into beating Musgrave. Paccione, with her bankruptcy's intimate details splashed across the airwaves isn't the candidate to do it. Real Clear Politics has this race listed as #28 on their House List. Musgrave's impressive polling numbers have us listing this race as Likely GOP. Note to the Billionaires, find a Salazar or a Ritter and you can win this seat, make sure they don't have bounced checks for pizza listed in a bankruptcy.

CO-5: The newspapers have wasted a great deal of ink on this race. Lamborn (R) has pulled into a double digit lead over his Democratic opponent. This race is over. List it as Safe GOP.

No other changes in the other Colorado House Seats. Degette (D) will win in CO-1. Udall (D) will win in CO-2. Salazar (D) will win in CO-3. Tancredo (R) will win in CO-6.



Colorado:
All incumbents marked with *.

Governor: (Open) Beauprez (R) vs. Ritter (D)

Outlook: Likely Dem.

Downlow: Beauprez, the former congressman from CO-7 hasn't been able to pull within 10 points of Democratic former Denver DA Bill Ritter for what seems like forever. There is too strong a national headwind against Republican's, his campaign now is focused on preventing a complete Democratic sweep in Colorado. Beauprez has, at best, less than a 5% chance of winning. Look at the Real Clear Politics page on the Colorado Gubernatorial race for more data.

Secretary of State: (Open) Mike Coffman (R) vs. Ken Gordon (D)

Outlook: Toss Up.

Downlow:

Mike Coffman served as State Treasurer until he left to serve in Iraq's Al Anbar province during the last election (in Iraq). He is an Officer in the Marines.

Ken Gordon is an Democratic State Senator from Denver. He has excellent credentials and has been a beacon of bipartisanship in the State Senate.

With polling numbers showing this race as tied, we can't predict how the undecideds will break. Gordon has some commercials out on the TV none are negative. To give you an idea how hard it is for Republicans in Colorado Coffman's Iraqi war service is being described by some as "cashing in." It is reprehensible, and those individuals will go the way of John Kerry, but not this year.

State Treasurer: Mark Hillman* (R) vs. Cary Kennedy (D)

Outlook: Toss Up.

Downlow:

The tone of this race has changed dramatically in the last few days. Incumbent Mark Hillman is not a veteran of any state-wide elections. Cary Kennedy is a Democratic darling. Her work on Amendment 23 (School Funding Autopilot) has made her more of a lightning rod than we could have predicted. Polling in this race is also stuck at basically a tie with undecideds at about 20%. It all depends on how they break, which may all depend on Beauprez.

Attorney General: Fern O'Brien (D) vs. John Suthers* (R)

Outlook: Leans Republican

Downlow:

This is the one bright race that the GOP has. Fern can't raise money and the incumbent looks set to easily defeat her. We did have it listed as Safe GOP, but no Republican is safe this year.

State Senate:

Outlook: R-15 D-20

Downlow: We just can't see how Matt Knoedler (R) can pick up SD-21 (Lakewood) against veteran campaigner Betty Boyd (D). Even during good GOP years Boyd has outperformed what our models say she should do. Incumbent Lewis Entz (R) SD-5 (Central Mountains) looks like a loser against Gail Schwartz (D). Entz is a moderate, but when it comes to raw politics, that doesn't matter, Democrats are pouring money into this race. We also see Incumbent Ed Jones SD-11 (R) losing a marginal seat in Colorado Springs.

State House:

Outlook: R-31 D-34

Downlow: Even in a bad GOP year like 2004, the Colorado GOP still won 5 out of 9 seats that our model predicted as toss ups. This year looks really bad for the GOP, but since they see the writing on the wall we think that they can win half of our 12 predicted toss ups. Basically we are forecasting a wash except that the GOP should pick up HD-57. Our model puts that seat at an 81% probability of going Republican.

This page will get reposted everyday with modifications until the election. Updates will be made daily.

2006 Election Projections:

Federal:

US Senate: D-51 R-49 Net D + 6
US House: D-220 R-215 Net D + 18


Some other sites of note:
Senate Projections:
Tradesports.com GOP control about 70%
Real Clear Politics D-51 R 49 Net D + 6

House Projections:

Tradesports.com GOP control about 30%
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Majority Watch D-241 R-194 Net D + 39
Real Clear Politics D-220 R-215 Net D + 18

Colorado:
All incumbents marked with *.

Governor: (Open) Beauprez (R) vs. Ritter (D)

Outlook: Likely Dem.

Downlow: Beauprez, the former congressman from CO-7 hasn't been able to pull within 10 points of Democratic former Denver DA Bill Ritter for what seems like forever. There is too strong a national headwind against Republican's, his campaign now is focused on preventing a complete Democratic sweep in Colorado. Beauprez has, at best, less than a 5% chance of winning. Look at the Real Clear Politics page on the Colorado Gubernatorial race for more data.

Secretary of State: (Open) Mike Coffman (R) vs. Ken Gordon (D)

Outlook: Toss Up.

Downlow:

Mike Coffman served as State Treasurer until he left to serve in Iraq's Al Anbar province during the last election (in Iraq). He is an Officer in the Marines.

Ken Gordon is an Democratic State Senator from Denver. He has excellent credentials and has been a beacon of bipartisanship in the State Senate.

With polling numbers showing this race as tied, we can't predict how the undecideds will break. Gordon has some commercials out on the TV none are negative. To give you an idea how hard it is for Republicans in Colorado Coffman's Iraqi war service is being described by some as "cashing in." It is reprehensible, and those individuals will go the way of John Kerry, but not this year.

State Treasurer: Mark Hillman* (R) vs. Cary Kennedy (D)

Outlook: Toss Up.

Downlow:

The tone of this race has changed dramatically in the last few days. Incumbent Mark Hillman is not a veteran of any state-wide elections. Cary Kennedy is a Democratic darling. Her work on Amendment 23 (School Funding Autopilot) has made her more of a lightning rod than we could have predicted. Polling in this race is also stuck at basically a tie with undecideds at about 20%. It all depends on how they break, which may all depend on Beauprez.

Attorney General: Fern O'Brien (D) vs. John Suthers* (R)

Outlook: Leans Republican

Downlow:

This is the one bright race that the GOP has. Fern can't raise money and the incumbent looks set to easily defeat her. We did have it listed as Safe GOP, but no Republican is safe this year.

State Senate:

Outlook: R-15 D-20

Downlow: We just can't see how Matt Knoedler (R) can pick up SD-21 (Lakewood) against veteran campaigner Betty Boyd (D). Even during good GOP years Boyd has outperformed what our models say she should do. Incumbent Lewis Entz (R) SD-5 (Central Mountains) looks like a loser against Gail Schwartz (D). Entz is a moderate, but when it comes to raw politics, that doesn't matter, Democrats are pouring money into this race. We also see Incumbent Ed Jones (R) losing a marginal seat in Colorado Springs.

State House:

Outlook: R-31 D-34

Downlow: Even in a bad GOP year like 2004, the Colorado GOP still won 5 out of 9 seats that our model predicted as toss ups. This year looks really bad for the GOP, but since they see the writing on the wall we think that they can win half of our 12 predicted toss ups. Basically we are forecasting a wash except that the GOP should pick up HD-57. Our model puts that seat at an 81% probability of going Republican.

This page will get reposted everyday with modifications until the election. Updates will be made daily.