Monday, April 18, 2005

Delphi on the State Senate.

We began our initial projection for control of the State Senate at 50-50. In general, the GOP has three more seats to defend than the Democrats, 10-7. Adding to the GOP's burden is the fact that they will have five Senators who are term limited, while the Democrats only have one.

In the past these seats have been easier for the GOP to defend. 2006 is a non-presidential year, the average turnout in these races in '02 was about 50%, however, the effects of campaign finance haven't been observed yet on these seats.


St. Senate - District 1 Eastern Plains
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 9941 24.82 %
(REP) 30112 75.18 %
MHD PVI: R + 16.98

St. Senate - District 2 SE Colorado
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 16545 40.84 %
(REP) 23962 59.16 %
MHD PVI: R + .96

St. Senate - District 3 Pueblo
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 26118 63.84 %
(REP) 14792 36.16 %
MHD PVI: D + 22.04

St. Senate - District 5 San Luis Valley and Southern Mountains
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 16553 39.00 %
(REP) 25895 61.00 %
MHD PVI: R + 2.8

St. Senate - District 6 Four Corners
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 24302 53.56 %
(REP) 21072 46.44 %
MHD PVI: D + 11.76

St. Senate - District 7 Grand Junction and surrounding areas
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 0 00.00 %
(REP) 28948 100.00 %
MHD PVI: R + 41.8

St. Senate - District 9 Part of El Paso County
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 0 00.00 %
(REP) 32139 100.00 %
MHD PVI: R + 41.8

St. Senate - District 11 Colorado Springs
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 11607 48.63 %
(REP) 12260 51.37 %
MHD PVI: D + 6.83

St. Senate - District 13 Weld County
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 0 00.00 %
(REP) 28245 100.00 %
MHD PVI: R + 41.8

St. Senate - District 15 Greater Ft. Collins
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 18531 37.55 %
(REP) 30825 62.45 %
MHD PVI: R + 4.25

St. Senate - District 16 Central Mountains
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 26585 52.39 %
(REP) 24156 47.61 %
MHD PVI: D + 10.59

St. Senate - District 20 Wheat Ridge
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 19707 50.24 %
(REP) 19520 49.76 %
MHD PVI: D + 8.44

St. Senate - District 22 Southern Jefferson County
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 15275 34.81 %
(REP) 28600 65.19 %
MHD PVI: R + 6.99

St. Senate - District 24 Northglen and Thornton
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 17383 57.55 %
(REP) 12820 42.45 %
MHD PVI: D + 15.75

St. Senate - District 30 Highlands Ranch and Parker
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 13076 29.06 %
(REP) 31925 70.94 %
MHD PVI: R + 12.74

St. Senate - District 32 SW Denver
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 28180 100.00 %
(REP) 0 00.00 %
MHD PVI: D + 58.2

St. Senate - District 34 West Denver
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 18576 100.00 %
(REP) 0 00.00 %
MHD PVI: D + 58.2


Average Democratic Vote: 15434
Average Republican Vote: 21486
Breakdown of total vote: Democratic 41.8% Republican 58.2%

Non-Competitive Democratic Seats: SD 3, 32, 34.
Non-Competitive Republican Seats: SD 1, 2, 5, 15.

Competitive Democratic Seat: SD 24. Open Seat/Term Limits.
Competitive Republican Seats: SD 7, 9, 13, 22, 30. All Open/Term Limits.

Very Competitive Democratic Seats: SD 6, 16, 20.
Very Competitive Republican Seat: SD 11.

Cheat Sheet:
SD 6: GOP came close last time, Isgar should improve.
SD 11: Won by less than a thousand last time. Jones is about the only Republican that can win this seat. Light at the end of the El Paso County Dems tunnel?
SD 16: Fitz-Gerald may or may not be term limited. GOP came within 5% of Senate President last time, she's a big target. Repeat of Daschle?
SD 20: Keller won by 187 last time in Perlmutter's old district. If Jensen runs could be very close. Jeffco GOP stinging from recent losses, may have hit bottom in 2004.

The GOP has a lot of open seats to defend, if the Democrats have a good strategy and suck up some money by running in those districts they could easily defend all of their competitive seats and pick up SD 11. Due to the impact of campaign finance reform we don't believe that the GOP will perform as well this cycle as they did in 2002 (Owens swept the state with over 60%). Because of this we are moving the likelihood of the Democrats keeping the State Senate to 70%. We need to see if Fitz-Gerald will be term limited out and who the candidates line up for each race.

Our new projections for the state legislature now stand at GOP Control: 24% Democratic Control: 14% Split Control: 62%.

Cross Posted at Polstate.com.

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