Delphi on the State Senate.

We began our initial projection for control of the State Senate at 50-50. In general, the GOP has three more seats to defend than the Democrats, 10-7. Adding to the GOP's burden is the fact that they will have five Senators who are term limited, while the Democrats only have one.

In the past these seats have been easier for the GOP to defend. 2006 is a non-presidential year, the average turnout in these races in '02 was about 50%, however, the effects of campaign finance haven't been observed yet on these seats.

St. Senate - District 1 Eastern Plains
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 9941 24.82 %
(REP) 30112 75.18 %
MHD PVI: R + 16.98

St. Senate - District 2 SE Colorado
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 16545 40.84 %
(REP) 23962 59.16 %
MHD PVI: R + .96

St. Senate - District 3 Pueblo
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 26118 63.84 %
(REP) 14792 36.16 %
MHD PVI: D + 22.04

St. Senate - District 5 San Luis Valley and Southern Mountains
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 16553 39.00 %
(REP) 25895 61.00 %
MHD PVI: R + 2.8

St. Senate - District 6 Four Corners
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 24302 53.56 %
(REP) 21072 46.44 %
MHD PVI: D + 11.76

St. Senate - District 7 Grand Junction and surrounding areas
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 0 00.00 %
(REP) 28948 100.00 %
MHD PVI: R + 41.8

St. Senate - District 9 Part of El Paso County
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 0 00.00 %
(REP) 32139 100.00 %
MHD PVI: R + 41.8

St. Senate - District 11 Colorado Springs
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 11607 48.63 %
(REP) 12260 51.37 %
MHD PVI: D + 6.83

St. Senate - District 13 Weld County
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 0 00.00 %
(REP) 28245 100.00 %
MHD PVI: R + 41.8

St. Senate - District 15 Greater Ft. Collins
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 18531 37.55 %
(REP) 30825 62.45 %
MHD PVI: R + 4.25

St. Senate - District 16 Central Mountains
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 26585 52.39 %
(REP) 24156 47.61 %
MHD PVI: D + 10.59

St. Senate - District 20 Wheat Ridge
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 19707 50.24 %
(REP) 19520 49.76 %
MHD PVI: D + 8.44

St. Senate - District 22 Southern Jefferson County
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 15275 34.81 %
(REP) 28600 65.19 %
MHD PVI: R + 6.99

St. Senate - District 24 Northglen and Thornton
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 17383 57.55 %
(REP) 12820 42.45 %
MHD PVI: D + 15.75

St. Senate - District 30 Highlands Ranch and Parker
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 13076 29.06 %
(REP) 31925 70.94 %
MHD PVI: R + 12.74

St. Senate - District 32 SW Denver
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 28180 100.00 %
(REP) 0 00.00 %
MHD PVI: D + 58.2

St. Senate - District 34 West Denver
2002 Election Results:
(DEM) 18576 100.00 %
(REP) 0 00.00 %
MHD PVI: D + 58.2

Average Democratic Vote: 15434
Average Republican Vote: 21486
Breakdown of total vote: Democratic 41.8% Republican 58.2%

Non-Competitive Democratic Seats: SD 3, 32, 34.
Non-Competitive Republican Seats: SD 1, 2, 5, 15.

Competitive Democratic Seat: SD 24. Open Seat/Term Limits.
Competitive Republican Seats: SD 7, 9, 13, 22, 30. All Open/Term Limits.

Very Competitive Democratic Seats: SD 6, 16, 20.
Very Competitive Republican Seat: SD 11.

Cheat Sheet:
SD 6: GOP came close last time, Isgar should improve.
SD 11: Won by less than a thousand last time. Jones is about the only Republican that can win this seat. Light at the end of the El Paso County Dems tunnel?
SD 16: Fitz-Gerald may or may not be term limited. GOP came within 5% of Senate President last time, she's a big target. Repeat of Daschle?
SD 20: Keller won by 187 last time in Perlmutter's old district. If Jensen runs could be very close. Jeffco GOP stinging from recent losses, may have hit bottom in 2004.

The GOP has a lot of open seats to defend, if the Democrats have a good strategy and suck up some money by running in those districts they could easily defend all of their competitive seats and pick up SD 11. Due to the impact of campaign finance reform we don't believe that the GOP will perform as well this cycle as they did in 2002 (Owens swept the state with over 60%). Because of this we are moving the likelihood of the Democrats keeping the State Senate to 70%. We need to see if Fitz-Gerald will be term limited out and who the candidates line up for each race.

Our new projections for the state legislature now stand at GOP Control: 24% Democratic Control: 14% Split Control: 62%.

Cross Posted at Polstate.com.

Delphi on the 2006 Governors race.

In a new Ciruli Associates poll, Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) polled extremely well. He had a higher positive to negative ratio than any other official mentioned in the poll, including Democratic Senator Ken Salazar, Republican Governor Bill Owens and President Bush.

Overall, Senator Salazar had the highest favorable rating; 71%. He was followed by Governor Owens who had a favorable rating of 66%, Mayor Hickenlooper with a rating of 61%, President Bush with 54%, Republican Senator Wayne Allard with 53% and CU Professor Ward Churchill with 11%.

Front Range voters, which comprise about 80 percent of Colorado's electorate, have an overwhelmingly positive view of Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper. Sixty-one percent of voters rate him favorably, and his positive-to-negative ratio is more than 10-to-1, exceeding that of many of the state’s leading politicians and President George W. Bush...Hickenlooper achieved his 61 percent favorable score despite of more than a third (34%) of voters not being familiar with him.

Recently, a campaign has sprung up to "draft Hick." Some pundits have been talking up Hickenlooper for weeks, such as Colorado Luis and Colorado Pols.

Hickenlooper appears to be strong not only in the City and County of Denver, where he recently polled in the low 90s, but also in the entire metro region. According to Ciruli:

Hickenlooper scores his highest favorability rating (75%) in the Denver metro area where he also is very well-known (only 19% can’t rate him). Nearly half of northern Colorado voters are unable to rate him and 78 percent of southern Colorado voters are unfamiliar with him. Because his negative-to-positive rate is high in the North and South Front Ranges, as more voters become familiar with him, his ratings should improve, at least under current circumstances.

It appears that if Hickenlooper runs the early battle will be to define him.

Additionally, it remains to be seen how "favorability" correlates to actual election results. Ken Salazar, who leads the poll with a favorability rating of 71% only received 51% of the vote in last year's Senate race against beer baron Pete Coors.

Cross posted at Polstate.

Delphi on the State House.

We will break the State House seats into three categories based upon their PVIs. An look at how the PVI (partisan voter index) that Mile High Delphi uses is available here. Basically, it is just a quick political handicapping tool that gives us a very general feel for how competitive the district is.

The three categories that we are going to break House seats down into will be Very Competitive (with a PVI below 5), Competitive (PVI between 5 and 10), and Non-Competitive (PVI above 10). This breakdown will give us a general feel for how competitive the House will be and what races we need to watch.

Dem Non-Competitive: HD 1-13, 24, 32, 34, 35, 41, 42, 46, 53, 61 and 62. Total 23.
GOP Non-Competitive: HD 14-17, 19-21, 38, 40, 43-45, 48, 51, 54, 57-59, 63 and 65. Total 20.

Dem Competitive: HD 18, 26, 36, 55 and 56. Total 5.
GOP Competitive: HD 25, 28, 37 and 60. Total 4.

Dem Very Competitive: HD 23, 29, 30, 31, 47, 50 and 64. Total of 7.
GOP Very Competitive: HD 22, 27, 33, 39, 49 and 52. Total of 6.

We will start out by looking at the "Sweet Sixteen." The Sweet Sixteen is made up of the sixteen most competitive districts. They are listed below from the most competitive to the least. From this we constructed our first prediction, which reveals how we have came up with our probabilities for who will control the House after 2006.

HD 52 PVI R - .00 2004 Results R 50.7% D 49.3%
HD 22 PVI R + .80 2004 Results R 51.8% D 48.2%
HD 27 PVI R + 1.04 2004 Results R 52.0% D 48.0%
HD 23 PVI D + 1.08 2004 Results R 49.9% D 50.1%
HD 33 PVI R + 1.67 2004 Results R 52.7% D 47.3%
HD 29 PVI D + 1.87 2004 Results R 49.1% D 50.9%
HD 47 PVI D + 2.76 2004 Results R 48.2% D 51.8%
HD 31 PVI D + 2.73 2004 Results R 48.3% D 51.7%
HD 50 PVI D + 4.12 2004 Results R 46.9% D 53.1%
HD 39 PVI R + 4.20 2004 Results R 55.2% D 44.8%
HD 64 PVI D + 4.72 2004 Results R 46.3% D 53.7%
HD 49 PVI R + 4.84 2004 Results R 55.8% D 44.2%
HD 30 PVI D + 4.85 2004 Results R 46.1% D 53.9%
HD 60 PVI R + 5.13 2004 Results R 56.1% D 43.9%
HD 56 PVI D + 5.69 2004 Results R 45.3% D 54.7%
HD 36 PVI D + 6.21 2004 Results R 44.8% D 55.2%

The sweet sixteen is made up of 7 GOP seats and 9 Democratic seats. Due to the record turnout last election (something on the order of 88%) and the fact that '06 is a midterm year, the Democratic tide that swept the state legislature last year will have difficulties increasing their holdings. If the 3% Democratic bump that normally accompanies presidential years is taken away the Democrats stand to lose at least 4 seats. Because of these factors, we put the probability of the GOP taking back the State House at 80%.

The State Senate has gone from GOP control in '98 to Dem control in '00, back to the GOP in '02 and back to the Dems in '04. Because of this, we will begin our probability of either party controlling the State Senate next year at 50%.

Those two numbers give you the projections that we currently have. GOP 40%, Dem 10% and Split Control at 50%.

I also found a few statistical points of interest.

Since the green party only ran in one House election, I focused my attention on the 17 races with a Republican, a Democrat and a Libertarian on the ballot. On AVERAGE the Republican got 13071 votes (47%), the Democrat got 13761 (49.5%) and the Libertarian got 928 votes (3.5%). Meaning, on average that the Libertarian vote would have to split seven votes Republican and two votes Democratic for the GOP to pick up those seats. ON AVERAGE. In reality, I only found one election where the Libertarian got a larger number of votes than the winning margin between the major parties (HD 23).

In the 31 districts where you had only a Democrat and a Republican on the ballot, on average the Republican got 15178 votes (51%) and the Democrat got 14525 votes (49%).

Perhaps the most interesting statistical fact was this. Each district should have a nearly equal population, and, all things being equal, you would think that having a 3rd party on the ballot would increase turnout. However, the average turnout for a race with three parties on the ballot was 27760, while 29703 turned out for the two party races. That is an increase of 7.2% on average. So it appears that, at least as far as these elections were concerned, the participation of 3rd parties lowered voter participation.

Cross posted at Polstate.

Delphi on Election 2006: House Districts in the Denver Metro Area.

Here are the 2004 election results (without any 3rd party candidates) and some modified Cook Partisan Voting Index numbers for the State House and Senate districts located in the seven county metro region (Denver Metro Area). Developed originally by Charlie Cook, these numbers give you a quick assessment of the generic partisan strength in any given district. Our Mile High PVI uses only the two party vote in each district for 2004. Here is how the numbers break down for a house member. Statewide Republicans got 51.00% of the vote in State House elections, Democrats won 49.00%. If a Democratic House member won in 2004 with 55% then that district's Mile High PVI is D + 6. (State Senate PVIs will be available later)

Adams County:

St. Senate - District 25
2004 Election Results:
Stephanie Takis (DEM) 22606 56.53 %
Kevin D. Blount (REP) 17386 43.47 %

St. Rep. District 30
2004 Election Results:
Mary Hodge (DEM) 10426 53.85 %
Shae Ortega (REP) 8936 46.15 %
MHD PVI: D + 4.85

St. Rep. District 31
2004 Election Results:
Judy Solano (DEM) 17563 51.73 %
Pam Rhodes (REP) 16386 48.27 %
MHD PVI: D + 2.73

St. Rep. District 32
2004 Election Results:
Valentin "Val" Vigil (DEM) 13117 62.48 %
David M. Borstel (REP) 7876 37.52 %
MHD PVI: D + 13.48

St. Rep. District 34
2004 Election Results:
Lois Tochtrop (DEM) 17214 100.00 %
MHD PVI: D + 51

St. Rep. District 35
2004 Election Results:
Larry Pace (REP) 7399 35.26 %
Ann Ragsdale (DEM) 13585 64.74 %
MHD PVI: D + 15.74

Arapahoe County:

St. Senate - District 26
2004 Election Results:
Jared B. Ingwalson (DEM) 27488 48.67 %
Jim Dyer (REP) 28994 51.33 %

St. Senate - District 27
2004 Election Results:
Nancy Spence (REP) 42749 61.52 %
Lisa Karen Love (DEM) 26740 38.48 %

St. Senate - District 28
2004 Election Results:
Bruce Cairns (REP) 22631 44.64 %
Suzanne S. Williams (DEM) 28066 55.36 %

St. Senate - District 29
2004 Election Results:
Bob Hagedorn (DEM) 20985 63.30 %
Mike Martin (REP) 12169 36.70 %

St. Rep. District 36
2004 Election Results:
Jim Parker (REP) 10676 44.79 %
Morgan Carroll (DEM) 13159 55.21 %
MHD PVI: D + 6.21

St. Rep. District 37
2004 Election Results:
Thomas M. Donahue (DEM) 13883 40.54 %
Lauri Clapp (REP) 20360 59.46 %
MHD PVI: R + 8.46

St. Rep. District 38
2004 Election Results:
Joe Stengel (REP) 19743 61.65 %
Glen L. Emerson (DEM) 12279 38.35 %
MHD PVI: R + 10.65

St. Rep. District 39
2004 Election Results:
David G. Balmer (REP) 21996 55.20 %
Mollie T.M. Cullom (DEM) 17851 44.80 %
MHD PVI: R + 4.2

St. Rep. District 40
2004 Election Results:
Martha J. Karnopp (DEM) 11107 36.91 %
Debbie Stafford (REP) 18982 63.09 %
MHD PVI: R + 12.09

St. Rep. District 41
2004 Election Results:
E. C. Gaffney Jr. (REP) 10404 38.40 %
Nancy J. Todd (DEM) 16066 59.29 %
MHD PVI: D + 10.29

St. Rep. District 42
2004 Election Results:
Michael Garcia (DEM) 10255 68.49 %
Marie Evelyn Archuleta-Rossmiller (REP) 4717 31.51 %
MHD PVI: D + 19.49

Boulder County:

St. Senate - District 17
2004 Election Results:
Brandon C. Shaffer (DEM) 34470 56.43 %
Sandy Hume (REP) 26616 43.57 %

St. Senate - District 18
2004 Election Results:
Ron Tupa (DEM) 52332 78.36 %
Krista Poch (REP) 14456 21.64 %

St. Rep. District 10
2004 Election Results:
Alice Madden (DEM) 27522 100.00 %
MHD PVI: D + 51

St. Rep. District 11
2004 Election Results:
Jack Pommer (DEM) 27680 100.00 %
MHD PVI: D + 51

St. Rep. District 12
2004 Election Results:
Paul Weissmann (DEM) 20842 67.03 %
Jim Egerton (REP) 10253 32.97 %
MHD PVI: D + 18.03

St. Rep. District 13
2004 Election Results:
Tom Plant (DEM) 31407 100.00 %
MHD PVI: D + 51

City and County of Broomfield:

St. Senate - District 23
2004 Election Results:
Shawn Mitchell (REP) 37787 58.43 %
Curt Darius Williams (DEM) 26889 41.57 %

St. Rep. District 33
2004 Election Results:
Dianne Primavera (DEM) 17454 47.33 %
Bill Berens (REP) 19426 52.67 %
MHD PVI: R + 1.67

City and County of Denver:

St. Senate - District 31
2004 Election Results:
Jennifer Veiga (DEM) 34856 100.00 %

St. Senate - District 33
2004 Election Results:
Peter C. Groff (DEM) 36863 100.00 %

St. Senate - District 35
2004 Election Results:
Ronald B. Olson (REP) 18258 34.76 %
Ken Gordon (DEM) 34272 65.24 %

St. Rep. District 1
2004 Election Results:
Dave Lewis (REP) 8534 39.39 %
Fran N. Coleman (DEM) 13132 60.61 %
MHD PVI: D + 11.61

St. Rep. District 2
2004 Election Results:
Mike Cerbo (DEM) 11687 100.00 %
MHD PVI: D + 51

St. Rep. District 3
2004 Election Results:
David A. Sprecace (REP) 12097 38.87 %
Anne L. McGihon (DEM) 19027 61.13 %
MHD PVI: D + 12.13

St. Rep. District 4
2004 Election Results:
K. Jerry Frangas (DEM) 15753 80.29 %
Rick D. Nevin (REP) 3866 19.71 %
MHD PVI: D + 31.29

St. Rep. District 5
2004 Election Results:
Joel Judd (DEM) 16310 78.75 %
John Wren (REP) 4402 21.25 %
MHD PVI: D + 29.75

St. Rep. District 6
2004 Election Results:
Andrew Romanoff (DEM) 23782 71.69 %
Gregory Nathan Golyansky (REP) 9391 28.31 %
MHD PVI: D + 22.69

St. Rep. District 7
2004 Election Results:
Terrance Carroll (DEM) 17994 100.00 %
MHD PVI: D + 51

St. Rep. District 8
2004 Election Results:
Rosemary Marshall (DEM) 22266 100.00 %
MHD PVI: D + 51

St. Rep. District 9
2004 Election Results:
Jerry B. Wheeler (REP) 10436 39.10 %
Alice Borodkin (DEM) 16255 60.90 %
MHD PVI: D + 11.90

Douglas County:

St. Senate - District 4
2004 Election Results:
Jim Miller (DEM) 23733 30.68 %
Tom J. Wiens (REP) 53617 69.32 %

St. Rep. District 43
2004 Election Results:
Craig Ziesman (DEM) 12945 35.82 %
Ted Harvey (REP) 23193 64.18 %
MHD PVI: R + 13.18

St. Rep. District 44
2004 Election Results:
Mike May (REP) 32787 100.00 %
MHD PVI: R + 49

St. Rep. District 45
2004 Election Results:
Penny Burley (DEM) 13057 30.49 %
James R. "Jim" Sullivan (REP) 29761 69.51 %
MHD PVI: R + 18.51

Jefferson County:

St. Senate - District 19
2004 Election Results:
Sue Windels (DEM) 31200 53.70 %
Jessica Corry (REP) 26905 46.30 %

St. Senate - District 21
2004 Election Results:
Deanna Hanna (DEM) 31046 59.48 %
Tori Merritts (REP) 21153 40.52 %

St. Rep. District 22
2004 Election Results:
Matt Knoedler (REP) 16607 51.80 %
Peter Mazula (DEM) 15450 48.20 %
MHD PVI: R + .80

St. Rep. District 23
2004 Election Results:
Ramey Johnson (REP) 13378 49.92 %
Gwyn Green (DEM) 13419 50.08 %
MHD PVI: D + 1.08

St. Rep. District 24
2004 Election Results:
Cheri Jahn (DEM) 18425 100.00 %
MHD PVI: D + 51

St. Rep. District 25
2004 Election Results:
Donna Red Wing (DEM) 16072 41.07 %
John Witwer (REP) 23057 58.93 %
MHD PVI: R + 7.93

St. Rep. District 26
2004 Election Results:
Betty Boyd (DEM) 16606 57.20 %
Mike Smith (REP) 12424 42.80 %
MHD PVI: D + 8.2

St. Rep. District 27
2004 Election Results:
Chris Rose (DEM) 15330 47.96 %
Bill Crane (REP) 16637 52.04 %
MHD PVI: R + 1.04

St. Rep. District 28
2004 Election Results:
Thomas Dittemore (DEM) 14079 42.44 %
Don Lee (REP) 19091 57.56 %
MHD PVI: R + 6.56

St. Rep. District 29
2004 Election Results:
Debbie J. Benefield (DEM) 15124 50.87 %
Bob Briggs (REP) 14604 49.13 %
MHD PVI: D + 1.87