Monday, February 22, 2010

Colorado State Senate Projection Update Feb. 2010

The Democrats currently enjoy a 21-14 majority in the Colorado State Senate. In our last post we looked at some competitive races. Our original forecast hasn't changed. District 6 currently is our only race ranked as a toss up. Senator Schwartz seems well on her way to buying her reelection in SD 5. SD 16 should be competitive on paper. Joan Fitz Gerald won this district a decade ago, she turned it over to Dan Gibbs and he won the district in his own right in 2008. The independents break for the Democrats in this mountain district. Voter sentiment seems to be trending against the Democratic party this cycle, so a close look at candidate financing reports will give us an idea if this seat really is in play. SD 2 looks likely to remain in Republican hands. SD 11 has simply become too Democratic for the GOP to hope to pick it up. Macro events could push it into the toss up category however. Lastly, SD 20. The Republicans would love to win this district, but Jefferson County, especially in the old ring suburbs has trended Democratic over the last decade. Look for the Democrats to outspend the GOP by 3-1 or 4-1. The real fight will probably be the Democratic primary.

Rank 1.

District 6: Durango-four corners region. Partisan make up: D 29.2% R 39.8% I 30%

Bruce Whitehead (D) $19,410

Ellen Roberts (R) $42,160

Toss Up.

Rank 2.

District 5: Central Mountains. Partisan make up: D 34.7% R 35.6% I 29%

Wayne Wolf (R) $1,470
Robert Rankin (R) $35,865

Gail Schwartz (D) $79,160

Leans Dem.

Rank 3.

District 16: North Central Mountains. Partisan make up: D 32.4% R 32% I 34.6%

Jeanne Nicholson (D) No Activity

Mark Hurlbert (R) No Activity
Tim Leonard (R) 12,820

Leans Dem.

Rank 4.

District 2: South Eastern Plains. Partisan make up: D 36.2% R 38.9% I 24.4%

Kevin Grantham (R) $12,340
Matt Heimerich (R) $6,050

No Democrats Registered Yet.

Rank 5.

District 11: Colorado Springs. Parisan make up: D 34.8% R 32.6% I 31.9%

John Morse (D) $37,650

Owen Hill (R) $865

Leans Dem.

Rank 6.

District 20: Wheat Ridge. Partisan make up: D 37% R 30% I 32%

John Odom (R) $10,220

Cheri Jahn (D) $38,480
David Ruchman (D) $28,500

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