Who is going to win Indiana and North Carolina?

Today the Democrats are having primaries in Indiana and North Carolina.

According to Intrade, Hillary Clinton has a 88% probability of winning Indiana. Obama is the favorite in North Carolina with a 94% probability of winning.

Pollster.com has Clinton ahead in Indiana 48.6% to 44.4%. Real Clear Politics mirrors pollster with their poll average at 49% to 44%.

Pollster.com has Obama ahead in North Carolina with 49.6% to 42.3%. Real Clear Politic's average is about the same, with Obama leading Clinton 50% to 42%.

We predict that Obama will win North Carolina and Hillary will win Indiana.

So at the end of the day, the Democratic race will be at the same spot it was before.

Just as an aside, Intrade puts the probability that Obama will be the Democratic nominee at 77.9%. So it looks like these primaries are really much ado about nothing.

US Senate Projection Update April 30, 2008

US Senate Homepage


Current Projection: Democrats gain 5 seats. Results D-56 R-44

The elite eight most competitive Senate Races:

Races are listed by how competitive they are based upon Intrade probabilities:

(1)Mississippi: To replace Trent Lott. Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D) No Polling
Intrade lists the races as 50/50 with no volume.

No change in party control.

(2)Louisiana: Landrieu (D) inc vs. Kennedy (R) Intrade gives Landrieu a 55% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Kennedy trailing Landrieu 40.5% to 48%.

Pollster page for Kennedy vs. Landrieu.

No change in party control.

(3)Minnesota: Coleman (R) inc vs. Franken (D) Intrade gives Coleman a 56% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Coleman beating Franken 49.3% to 43%.

Pollster page for Coleman vs. Franken.

No change in party control.

(4)Alaska: Stevens (R) inc vs. Begich (D) Intrade gives Begich a 62.5% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Begich leading Stevens 46% to 43.5%.

Pollster page for Stevens vs. Begich.

Democrat pickup.

(5)New Hampshire: Sununu (R) inc vs. Shaheen (D) Intrade gives Shaheen a 64% probability of winning.

As of 3/17 the poll average showed Shaheen leading Sununu 49% to 39%.

Pollster Poll Average

Democrat pickup.

(6)Colorado: Open Udall (D) vs. Schaeffer (R) Intrade gives Udall a 64% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Udall beating Schaffer 45.5% to 38%.

Polls for Schaeffer vs. Udall.

Democrat pickup.

(7)New Mexico: Open Udall (D) vs. Pearce (R) or Wilson (R) Intrade gives Udall a 75% probability of winning.

Average of the polls shows Udall beating Pearce 54% to 37% and Udall beating Wilson 55% to 38%.

Polls for Udall vs. Wilson and for Udall vs. Pearce.

Democrat pickup.

(8)Virginia: Open Gilmore (R) vs. Warner (D) Intrade gives Warner a 80.5% probability of winning.

As of 3/27 the poll average showed Warner beating Gilmore 56% to 38.5%.

Pollster Poll Average

Democrat pickup.

Electoral Vote Projection Update Late April 2008.

Our late April update shows the race for President tightening. If the election were held today neither party would have the 270 votes needed in order to win the presidency. We have the race nearly tied at D-234 R-240 Toss up-64.

Electoral vote projection home page here.

Super Competitive States:

Colorado: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Colorado at 60%.

Pollster.com has the average of Colorado polls for Obama vs. McCain at 43.7-46.7.

We are going to keep Colorado in the Toss Up category.

New Mexico: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning New Mexico at 64%.

Pollster.com has the average of New Mexico polls for Obama vs. McCain at 42.5% to 47%.

We are going to keep New Mexico in the Toss Up category.

Nevada: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Nevada at 53%.

Pollster.com has the average of Nevada polls for Obama vs. McCain at 47-40.

We are going to keep Nevada in the Toss Up category.

Ohio: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Ohio at 62.5%.

Pollster.com has the average of Ohio polls for Obama vs. McCain at 42.7-45.3.

Real Clear Politics has the general election average at 42.7% for Obama and 45.3% for McCain.

We are going to keep Ohio in the Toss Up category.

Competitive States:

Iowa: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Iowa at 66%.

Pollster.com has the average of Iowa polls for Obama vs. McCain at 47.5 to 42.6.

Real Clear Politics has the general election average at 49.3% for Obama and 40% for McCain.

We have Iowa in the Democratic Category.

Minnesota: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Minnesota at 80%.

Pollster.com has the average of Minnesota polls for Obama vs. McCain at 51.1-39.7.

We have Minnesota in the Democratic Category.

New Hampshire: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning New Hampshire at 55%.

Pollster.com has the average of New Hampshire polls for Obama vs. McCain at 46-42.

We are putting New Hampshire's electoral votes in the Toss Up category..

Pennsylvania: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Pennsylvania at 67.5%.

Pollster.com has the average of the Pennsylvania polls for Obama vs. McCain at 42.7 to 45.2.

Real Clear Politics has the race tied at 43%.

We are moving Pennsylvania into the Toss Up Category.

Competitive States:

Arkansas: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Arkansas electoral votes at 26%.

Pollster.com has the average of polls in Arkansas with McCain leading Obama 53% to 30%.

We are giving Arkansas electoral votes to McCain.

Michigan: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Michigan's electoral votes at 78%.

Pollster.com has the average of polls in Michigan showing Obama leading McCain 42.5% to 41.2%.

We are keeping Michigan's electoral votes in the Democratic category.

Missouri: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Missouri's electoral votes at 42.5%.

Pollster.com has the average of polls in Missouri showing McCain beating Obama 52.8% to 39.9%.

We are giving Missouri's electoral votes to McCain.

Virginia: Intrade Markets puts the probability of a Democrat winning Virginia's electoral votes at 44.5%.

Pollster.com has the average of polls in Virginia showing McCain beating Obama 52.3% to 43.1%.

We are putting Virginia's Electoral votes in the McCain category.

Who is going to win the Pennsylvania primary?

Here is our look at the Pennsylvania primary:

Two questions need to be asked, firstly who is going to win and secondly by how much? Conventional wisdom says that Clinton has to win, and that she needs to win by a certain margin in order to continue her challenge to Barack Obama.

The first thing that we always look at is what the futures markets say. The intrade market for the Penn. primary says that Clinton has a 89% probability of winning. That is huge. Clinton is going to win Pennsylvania.

Now the only question is by how much? Here is a link to the pollster page for the Penn. primary. As of right now the poll average is Clinton 48.1% vs Obama 42%. That is a spread of 6.1%. Real Clear Politics has the spread at 5.3%, with Clinton beating Obama 47.6% to 42.3%.

We have seen Clinton consistently overperform her polling numbers this cycle. We put the spread at at least 7%.

Elite Eight Top Most Competitive Senate Races.

US Senate Homepage Current Projection

Races where we forecast party change:

New Hampshire: Sununu (R) inc vs. Shaheen (D)

As of 3/17 the poll average showed Shaheen leading Sununu 49% to 39%.

Pollster Poll Average

Virginia: Open Gilmore (R) vs. Warner (D)

As of 3/27 the poll average showed Warner beating Gilmore 56% to 38.5%.

Pollster Poll Average

New Mexico: Open Udall (D) vs. Pearce (R) or Wilson (R)

Average of the polls shows Udall beating Pearce 54% to 37% and Udall beating Wilson 55% to 38%.

Polls for Udall vs. Wilson and for Udall vs. Pearce.

Colorado: Open Udall (D) vs. Schaeffer (R)

Average of the polls shows Udall beating Schaffer 45.5% to 38%.

Polls for Schaeffer vs. Udall.

Louisiana: Landrieu (D) inc vs. Kennedy (R)

Average of the polls shows Kennedy trailing Landrieu 40.5% to 48%.

Pollster page for Kennedy vs. Landrieu.

Races where we forecast no party change but competitive races:

Minnesota: Coleman (R) inc vs. Franken (D)

Average of the polls shows Coleman beating Franken 49.3% to 43%.

Pollster page for Coleman vs. Franken.

Alaska: Stevens (R) inc vs. Begich (D)

Average of the polls shows Begich leading Stevens 46% to 43.5%.

Pollster page for Stevens vs. Begich.

Mississippi: To replace Trent Lott. Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D)

Electoral Projection Update 4/13/2008

Our new projection shows neither party with 270 electoral votes. As it stands today the Democrats have 259 electoral votes, the Republicans have 240 and 39 are in the toss up category.

Dirty Dozen Top Competitive Electoral States

We have divided these most competitive states into three tiers:

Tier one, super competitive: Nevada, Colorado, Ohio and New Mexico.

Tier two, very competitive: Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Minnesota.

Tier three, competitive: Virginia, Missouri, Arkansas and Michigan.

A quick note, we only use three different variables in creating our models, firstly, futures markets, secondly we look at polling data and lastly we look at prior voting behavior. One other caveat, all of our data assumes that it is a McCain vs. Obama race in the fall.

Our full electoral update will be up by Monday, along with a US Senate update.

US House 2008 Projection.

This projection is still under a considerable amount of construction. Tradesports doesn't have any US House markets up yet and until the primary season is over we won't even know who the major party candidates are in some districts.

At the end of the day, since this doesn't look like a wave election year, expect the Democrats to pick up 5-10 seats since so many Republicans are retiring.

Electoral Vote Projection Update March 28, 2008

As things stand today, even with the Democratic infighting, our projection holds at D 284, R 216 with 38 toss ups.

Since you need 270 electorial votes to win, we project that the Democrats would win if the election were held today.

Senate Projection Update Late March 2008

Our current US Senate Projection shows no race in the toss up category (less than 55% probability of winning). We now project that the Democrats will pick up, in order of highest probability, New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado. The Republicans are projected to pick up Louisiana. That is a net gain for the Democrats of three seats for a future Senate make up of D 54 R 46.

Coming Updates!

It does take a while to get the oracle warmed up. We hate to give her too many questions at once. But this week we are putting her to the test.

Upcoming updates:

New Presidential Projection 03/28
New US Senate Projection 03/27
First US House Projection 03/30
Updated Colorado State Senate Projection 03/31

Recent analysis shows that the race for the White House is tightening. The long Democratic primary seems to be damaging the entire party. We didn't expect to see such tightening until late summer or fall.

Early next month we will put out our national analysis along with an analysis for Colorado. A quick preview: The national parties are frayed, the Republicans into three different factions and the Democrats into two. However the Democratic factions are in open warfare with each other while the Republican factions are sitting back and watching the fratricide. As for Colorado, we will examine the State Democratic party, look at which of the two Democratic factions are strongest here and examine the success of the Democratic leadership and how ballot items are helping the Democrats stay in office.

Update on Competitive State Senate Races.

Four of the most potentially competitive seats that are up for election during this cycle:

District P-Diff $ Diff Win Diff
SD 8 D+4 R+17.5 R+3
SD 17 D+8 N/A N/A
SD 19 R+5.5 D+33.5 D+7.4
SD 26 R+9 R+0 R+2.6

We've chosen to look closely at these races because the incumbents won with less than 55% of the vote in 2004. As we have looked at comparable Senate Districts from 2006 we have seen one huge factor, no Democrat has won a race in a competitive district where the Republican out fundraised them. The same applies for the Republicans. Money is a huge factor in these races. We have a model that takes the effect of the money differential into account, but we won't be making predictions using it until after the primaries.

Electoral and Senate Updates for March 2008.

If the election were held today, the Democrats would win the Presidency with 284 electorial votes. The GOP would get 216. 38 Electorial votes are toss ups.




Virginia, Nevada, Missouri and Colorado are currently toss ups. We have color coded them to show what party they are leaning toward.

As for the US Senate, our only change is that Minnesota has gone from 50-50 to 52.5% in favor of the GOP.






For a look at our past Presidential Projection click here. Senate projections are here.

Colorado State Senate 2008.

Update July 17, 2008 D 18 R 15 Toss Up 2




The Colorado State Senate (hereto after referred to simply as the “Senate”) is made up of 35 members. Each member is elected to a four year term, and term limits state that no member shall serve more than two terms. Due to appointments and a court ruling a Senator can serve up to ten years, but in the vast majority of circumstances you can group Senators into one of two groups, either a first termer or a last termer. Elections are staggered for the Senate, with 18 seats up during presidential election years and 17 seats up during mid-term elections. The 18 seats that are up during presidential election years will be referred to as Class 1 and the remaining 17 Class 2 seats will be decided during the midterm elections two years later. The Senate is currently made up of only Republicans and Democrats. The Democrats have a five seat majority, meaning that the GOP must win three seats in order to take control of the chamber in 2009.
The Class 2 seats currently are made up of 8 Republicans and 9 Democrats. Of the Class 1 seats up for election during this cycle 14 of the seats are not competitive. Below we list the Senate Districts based upon their “partisan differential.” The P-Diff as we call it is basically either the Democratic or Republican Party’s registration advantage as a percentage.
Before we begin with a look at each Senate District in particular, let’s just do a quick macro view of the political landscape in Colorado. In 2004 the Democratic Party took control of the State Legislature for the first time in forty years. Colorado has moderated greatly since the beginning of Bush 41’s Presidency. All things being equal you would expect that if the registration between the two parties is equal, i.e. the P-Diff is 0, than each party would have an equal chance of winning the district. Today that is not true in Colorado. The “horizon” as we call it is currently somewhere out near R +7. That means that demographically, districts where the GOP has a 7% registration advantage are “toss ups.” As a matter of fact the GOP only holds one Senate District where they have less than a 9% registration advantage, SD 2 in southeast Colorado, which has a P Diff of R +2. Basically, the GOP has to slug it out in order to win districts where it holds single digit registration advantages, while Democrats easily skate to victory in comparable districts. As things stand right now, we only see four competitive districts this cycle, with each party having to defend two seats each. Since the GOP needs three seats to capture control of the Senate we put the probability of the GOP taking control of the Senate at 1%.
Our current projection is Democratic control: R 13-16 D 19-22
Here is a look at the four most competitive districts:
SD 19:
Open. P-Diff R +5.5. Westminster. Formerly held by Sue Windels (D) for eight years.
SD 23:
Open. P-Diff R +9. Broomfield. Shawn Mitchell (R) Running for re-election.
SD 8:
Open. P-Diff R +9. Northwestern Colorado. Formerly held by Jack Taylor (R) for eight years.
SD 14:
Incumbent Bob Bacon (D) is running for re-election. P-Diff R+2.5. Fort Collins.

Update 03/31/2008: This projection is very preliminary, we still have some more research to do and we need to mine a little more data, but if the election were held today the Colorado State Senate could switch control, even though it looks very unlikely. Our range shows that the Senate could go from a five seat Democratic majority to a two seat Republican majority. Most likely, the GOP may pick up one seat.

US Senate Projection 2008

Update September 02, 2008. D-56 R-44

Update July 22, 2008 D-57 R-43

Update July 11, 2008 D-57 R-43

Update June 24, 2008 D-57 R-43

Update June 20, 2008 D-57 R-43

Update June 1, 2008 D-57 R-43

Update April 30, 2008 D-56 R-44

Elite Eight

Politics Nation Top Ten US Senate Races.

Update March 27, 2008. D-54 R-46

Update March 8, 2008. D-55 R-45



Original Post:

As things stand right now Mile High Delphi is projecting that the Democrats will pick up 4-5 seats in the US Senate.

Here is a look at the races in which we project Democratic gains.

New Hampshire is a state that is quickly changing from Republican to Democrat. Republican Senator John Sununu barely beat former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen six years ago, 51 to 46 percent. During the 2006 midterm elections both Republican congressmen lost their reelection campaigns. Look for the Democrats to continue their gains in New Hampshire.

Virginia is traveling down the same path as New Hampshire, albeit at a much more moderate pace. What was once a reliable Republican state has become a competitive battlefield for the GOP. Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner is certainly the favorite against Republican former Governor Jim Gilmore.

Colorado is another one of those moderating red states. While Democratic Presidential nominees have a hard time winning in Colorado, the state's congressional delegation has swung from seven Republicans (including both Senators) and two Democrats to five Democrats and four Republicans. The State Legislature, after basically forty years of Republican control has now swung to large Democrat majorities. The Democratic Governor Bill Ritter is popular. Democratic Congressman Mark Udall looks poised to take Republican Senator Wayne Allard's open Senate seat. The GOP has nominated former congressman Bob Schaffer. Schaffer represents the most conservative elements of a party that has lost touch with the Centennial State.

New Mexico is trending Democrat, but barely. The retirement of Republican Senator Pete Domenici has created a situation where the entire House delegation has thrown their hats into the ring. As things stand right now Democratic congressman Tom Udall looks like the most likely winner.

Minnesota is a toss-up. Moderate Republican Norm Coleman is still waiting to see if he will face Comedian Al Franken or Mike Ceresi.

Electoral vote projection 2008.

Intrade Futures for McCain winning.

September 16, 2008 Update. D 273 R 265

September 9, 2008 Update. D 273 R 265

September 1, 2008 Update. D 293 R 245

August 6, 2008 Update. D 311 R 227

July 27, 2008 Update. D 311 R 227

July 18, 2008 Update. D 322 R 216

July 08, 2008 Update. D 322 R 216

June 24, 2008 Update. D 322 R 216

June 18, 2008 Update. D 306 R 204.

April 28, 2008 Update. D 234 R 240 Toss Up 64.

Dirty Dozen Most Competitive States.

April 13, 2008 Update. D 259 R 240 Toss up 39.

March 28, 2008 Update. D 284 R 216 Toss up 38 No change from last update.

March 8, 2008 Update. D 284 R 216 Toss up 38 Democrats lost 52 electoral votes from last update. Republicans gained 14 electoral votes from last update. 38 electoral votes were moved into the toss up category.




Here is our first projection for the presidential election of 2008.

If the election was held today the Democrat would win with 336 electoral votes to the Republican 202.

Getting ready for round three!

This election cycle will be MHD's third venture into the election projection business. Last cycle we did a great job, picking basically every election correctly (I think we missed a state house race).

Anyway, over the next few weeks you will see predictions coming up for the US Senate and House, Colorado Senate and House, district by district and the US Presidency.

We are going to break Colorado into six districts for the purposes of posting updates, northern and southern plains, northern and southern mountains and northern and southern Denver metro area. Basically I-70 will divide the state north and south with I-25 dividing the state east and west. The metro area will be divided by either Colfax or Alameda, depending on the work load.

Our preliminary picks for Colorado based races are as follows:


US Senate: Likely Dem
HD 1: Safe Dem
HD 2: Safe Dem
HD 3: Likely Dem
HD 4: Likely GOP
HD 5: Safe GOP
HD 6: Safe GOP
HD 7: Likely Dem

State House: Safe Dem
State Senate: Safe Dem

Look for some great maps and predictions in the next few weeks.

Colorado Senate 2008

There already has been a few stories highlighting the coming battle for one of Colorado's two US Senate seats in 2008. Here is how the match is shaping up.

On the Republican side: If Colorado's current senior Senator, Wayne Allard, decides to run again he will not face any significant primary opposition. He has a tiny warchest, less than $125,000. The main action on the Republican side is to ensure that Allard does run again. If Allard decides not to run the primary will be wide open. Early names that have been mentioned are: Governor Bill Owens, former US Representative Scott McInnis (who still has about a million in his campaign account), former US Representative Bob Schaffer and current US Representative Tom Tancredo.

We give an early edge to Allard not running again and to Scott McInnis taking up the Republican flag.

On the Democratic side there is really only one name floating around: US Representative Mark Udall. We don't foresee any real primary competition against him.

Our early overall analysis: Colorado has been trending Democratic over the last four years. A new term has even been coined for these western Democratic voters: Liberaltarians. While Colorado voters have a tendency to split their tickets, we don't think that they will think to themselves "We already have one Democratic Senator, so I'll vote for a Republican." Cast this race as Leans Democrat.

Colorado Election Results.

Here is how Colorado's political landscape looks after the Democratic wave that swept the nation yesterday.

State wide the Democrats picked up two seats:

Bill Ritter won election as Colorado Governor.

Cary Kennedy won election as State Treasurer.

The Republicans kept two state wide seats:

John Suthers won election as AG.

Mike Coffman won election as Secretary of State.

We correctly predicted all of these races.

The Democrats picked up the 7th US House District (Northern Denver Suburbs).

The Democrats now control 4 out of 7 Congressional Districts in Colorado.

We correctly predicted all of those races.

The Democrats also increased their majorities in both houses of the State Legislature.

We correctly predicted every race for the State Senate.

We correctly predicted 59 out of 65 State House races.

Actually we are being hard on ourselves, we really only missed two races, but we thought that the GOP would split the toss-up races, they only won 2 out of 12.

One other thing. We called every US Senate race and we only missed the scope of the Democratic win, off by only about 5-7 seats. Not too bad.

On a state wide basis we easily achieved our hope for 95% accuracy.

Nationally, we kicked butt. A bad election for the Republicans. A good one for us.

Maybe next time we can get every single Colorado State House seat?

Stay tuned...in 2008 we have a Presidential Race and a US Senate race in Colorado. Nobody does anything like this, we're the one.

Top of the Ticket Results:

Governor: Bill Ritter (D)
Sec. of State: Mike Coffman (R)
Treasurer: Too Close To Call Hillman (R) Leads by 5K votes.
Attorney General: John Suthers (R)

Congressional Seats:

CO-1 (Denver) DeGette (D)
CO-2 (Boulder) Udall (D)
CO-3 (Western Slope) Salazar (D)
CO-4 (Eastern Plains) Too Close To Call Musgrave (R) Leading by 7K votes.
CO-5 (Colorado Springs) Lamborn (R)
CO-6 (Southern Denver Suburbs) Tancredo (R)
CO-7 (Northern Denver Suburbs) Perlmutter (D)

Projected Makeup D-4 R-3