US Senate Homepage Current Projection
Races where we forecast party change:
New Hampshire: Sununu (R) inc vs. Shaheen (D)
As of 3/17 the poll average showed Shaheen leading Sununu 49% to 39%.
Pollster Poll Average
Virginia: Open Gilmore (R) vs. Warner (D)
As of 3/27 the poll average showed Warner beating Gilmore 56% to 38.5%.
Pollster Poll Average
New Mexico: Open Udall (D) vs. Pearce (R) or Wilson (R)
Average of the polls shows Udall beating Pearce 54% to 37% and Udall beating Wilson 55% to 38%.
Polls for Udall vs. Wilson and for Udall vs. Pearce.
Colorado: Open Udall (D) vs. Schaeffer (R)
Average of the polls shows Udall beating Schaffer 45.5% to 38%.
Polls for Schaeffer vs. Udall.
Louisiana: Landrieu (D) inc vs. Kennedy (R)
Average of the polls shows Kennedy trailing Landrieu 40.5% to 48%.
Pollster page for Kennedy vs. Landrieu.
Races where we forecast no party change but competitive races:
Minnesota: Coleman (R) inc vs. Franken (D)
Average of the polls shows Coleman beating Franken 49.3% to 43%.
Pollster page for Coleman vs. Franken.
Alaska: Stevens (R) inc vs. Begich (D)
Average of the polls shows Begich leading Stevens 46% to 43.5%.
Pollster page for Stevens vs. Begich.
Mississippi: To replace Trent Lott. Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D)
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Monday, April 14, 2008
Electoral Projection Update 4/13/2008
Our new projection shows neither party with 270 electoral votes. As it stands today the Democrats have 259 electoral votes, the Republicans have 240 and 39 are in the toss up category.
Friday, April 11, 2008
Dirty Dozen Top Competitive Electoral States
We have divided these most competitive states into three tiers:
Tier one, super competitive: Nevada, Colorado, Ohio and New Mexico.
Tier two, very competitive: Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Minnesota.
Tier three, competitive: Virginia, Missouri, Arkansas and Michigan.
A quick note, we only use three different variables in creating our models, firstly, futures markets, secondly we look at polling data and lastly we look at prior voting behavior. One other caveat, all of our data assumes that it is a McCain vs. Obama race in the fall.
Our full electoral update will be up by Monday, along with a US Senate update.
Tier one, super competitive: Nevada, Colorado, Ohio and New Mexico.
Tier two, very competitive: Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Minnesota.
Tier three, competitive: Virginia, Missouri, Arkansas and Michigan.
A quick note, we only use three different variables in creating our models, firstly, futures markets, secondly we look at polling data and lastly we look at prior voting behavior. One other caveat, all of our data assumes that it is a McCain vs. Obama race in the fall.
Our full electoral update will be up by Monday, along with a US Senate update.
Monday, March 31, 2008
US House 2008 Projection.
This projection is still under a considerable amount of construction. Tradesports doesn't have any US House markets up yet and until the primary season is over we won't even know who the major party candidates are in some districts.
At the end of the day, since this doesn't look like a wave election year, expect the Democrats to pick up 5-10 seats since so many Republicans are retiring.
At the end of the day, since this doesn't look like a wave election year, expect the Democrats to pick up 5-10 seats since so many Republicans are retiring.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Electoral Vote Projection Update March 28, 2008
As things stand today, even with the Democratic infighting, our projection holds at D 284, R 216 with 38 toss ups.
Since you need 270 electorial votes to win, we project that the Democrats would win if the election were held today.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Senate Projection Update Late March 2008
Our current US Senate Projection shows no race in the toss up category (less than 55% probability of winning). We now project that the Democrats will pick up, in order of highest probability, New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado. The Republicans are projected to pick up Louisiana. That is a net gain for the Democrats of three seats for a future Senate make up of D 54 R 46.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Coming Updates!
It does take a while to get the oracle warmed up. We hate to give her too many questions at once. But this week we are putting her to the test.
Upcoming updates:
New Presidential Projection 03/28
New US Senate Projection 03/27
First US House Projection 03/30
Updated Colorado State Senate Projection 03/31
Recent analysis shows that the race for the White House is tightening. The long Democratic primary seems to be damaging the entire party. We didn't expect to see such tightening until late summer or fall.
Early next month we will put out our national analysis along with an analysis for Colorado. A quick preview: The national parties are frayed, the Republicans into three different factions and the Democrats into two. However the Democratic factions are in open warfare with each other while the Republican factions are sitting back and watching the fratricide. As for Colorado, we will examine the State Democratic party, look at which of the two Democratic factions are strongest here and examine the success of the Democratic leadership and how ballot items are helping the Democrats stay in office.
Upcoming updates:
New Presidential Projection 03/28
New US Senate Projection 03/27
First US House Projection 03/30
Updated Colorado State Senate Projection 03/31
Recent analysis shows that the race for the White House is tightening. The long Democratic primary seems to be damaging the entire party. We didn't expect to see such tightening until late summer or fall.
Early next month we will put out our national analysis along with an analysis for Colorado. A quick preview: The national parties are frayed, the Republicans into three different factions and the Democrats into two. However the Democratic factions are in open warfare with each other while the Republican factions are sitting back and watching the fratricide. As for Colorado, we will examine the State Democratic party, look at which of the two Democratic factions are strongest here and examine the success of the Democratic leadership and how ballot items are helping the Democrats stay in office.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Update on Competitive State Senate Races.
Four of the most potentially competitive seats that are up for election during this cycle:
District P-Diff $ Diff Win Diff
SD 8 D+4 R+17.5 R+3
SD 17 D+8 N/A N/A
SD 19 R+5.5 D+33.5 D+7.4
SD 26 R+9 R+0 R+2.6
We've chosen to look closely at these races because the incumbents won with less than 55% of the vote in 2004. As we have looked at comparable Senate Districts from 2006 we have seen one huge factor, no Democrat has won a race in a competitive district where the Republican out fundraised them. The same applies for the Republicans. Money is a huge factor in these races. We have a model that takes the effect of the money differential into account, but we won't be making predictions using it until after the primaries.
District P-Diff $ Diff Win Diff
SD 8 D+4 R+17.5 R+3
SD 17 D+8 N/A N/A
SD 19 R+5.5 D+33.5 D+7.4
SD 26 R+9 R+0 R+2.6
We've chosen to look closely at these races because the incumbents won with less than 55% of the vote in 2004. As we have looked at comparable Senate Districts from 2006 we have seen one huge factor, no Democrat has won a race in a competitive district where the Republican out fundraised them. The same applies for the Republicans. Money is a huge factor in these races. We have a model that takes the effect of the money differential into account, but we won't be making predictions using it until after the primaries.
Saturday, March 08, 2008
Electoral and Senate Updates for March 2008.
If the election were held today, the Democrats would win the Presidency with 284 electorial votes. The GOP would get 216. 38 Electorial votes are toss ups.
Virginia, Nevada, Missouri and Colorado are currently toss ups. We have color coded them to show what party they are leaning toward.
As for the US Senate, our only change is that Minnesota has gone from 50-50 to 52.5% in favor of the GOP.
For a look at our past Presidential Projection click here. Senate projections are here.
Virginia, Nevada, Missouri and Colorado are currently toss ups. We have color coded them to show what party they are leaning toward.
As for the US Senate, our only change is that Minnesota has gone from 50-50 to 52.5% in favor of the GOP.
For a look at our past Presidential Projection click here. Senate projections are here.
Monday, March 03, 2008
Colorado State Senate 2008.
Update July 17, 2008 D 18 R 15 Toss Up 2
The Colorado State Senate (hereto after referred to simply as the “Senate”) is made up of 35 members. Each member is elected to a four year term, and term limits state that no member shall serve more than two terms. Due to appointments and a court ruling a Senator can serve up to ten years, but in the vast majority of circumstances you can group Senators into one of two groups, either a first termer or a last termer. Elections are staggered for the Senate, with 18 seats up during presidential election years and 17 seats up during mid-term elections. The 18 seats that are up during presidential election years will be referred to as Class 1 and the remaining 17 Class 2 seats will be decided during the midterm elections two years later. The Senate is currently made up of only Republicans and Democrats. The Democrats have a five seat majority, meaning that the GOP must win three seats in order to take control of the chamber in 2009.
The Class 2 seats currently are made up of 8 Republicans and 9 Democrats. Of the Class 1 seats up for election during this cycle 14 of the seats are not competitive. Below we list the Senate Districts based upon their “partisan differential.” The P-Diff as we call it is basically either the Democratic or Republican Party’s registration advantage as a percentage.
Before we begin with a look at each Senate District in particular, let’s just do a quick macro view of the political landscape in Colorado. In 2004 the Democratic Party took control of the State Legislature for the first time in forty years. Colorado has moderated greatly since the beginning of Bush 41’s Presidency. All things being equal you would expect that if the registration between the two parties is equal, i.e. the P-Diff is 0, than each party would have an equal chance of winning the district. Today that is not true in Colorado. The “horizon” as we call it is currently somewhere out near R +7. That means that demographically, districts where the GOP has a 7% registration advantage are “toss ups.” As a matter of fact the GOP only holds one Senate District where they have less than a 9% registration advantage, SD 2 in southeast Colorado, which has a P Diff of R +2. Basically, the GOP has to slug it out in order to win districts where it holds single digit registration advantages, while Democrats easily skate to victory in comparable districts. As things stand right now, we only see four competitive districts this cycle, with each party having to defend two seats each. Since the GOP needs three seats to capture control of the Senate we put the probability of the GOP taking control of the Senate at 1%.
Our current projection is Democratic control: R 13-16 D 19-22
Here is a look at the four most competitive districts:
SD 19:
Open. P-Diff R +5.5. Westminster. Formerly held by Sue Windels (D) for eight years.
SD 23:
Open. P-Diff R +9. Broomfield. Shawn Mitchell (R) Running for re-election.
SD 8:
Open. P-Diff R +9. Northwestern Colorado. Formerly held by Jack Taylor (R) for eight years.
SD 14:
Incumbent Bob Bacon (D) is running for re-election. P-Diff R+2.5. Fort Collins.
Update 03/31/2008: This projection is very preliminary, we still have some more research to do and we need to mine a little more data, but if the election were held today the Colorado State Senate could switch control, even though it looks very unlikely. Our range shows that the Senate could go from a five seat Democratic majority to a two seat Republican majority. Most likely, the GOP may pick up one seat.
The Colorado State Senate (hereto after referred to simply as the “Senate”) is made up of 35 members. Each member is elected to a four year term, and term limits state that no member shall serve more than two terms. Due to appointments and a court ruling a Senator can serve up to ten years, but in the vast majority of circumstances you can group Senators into one of two groups, either a first termer or a last termer. Elections are staggered for the Senate, with 18 seats up during presidential election years and 17 seats up during mid-term elections. The 18 seats that are up during presidential election years will be referred to as Class 1 and the remaining 17 Class 2 seats will be decided during the midterm elections two years later. The Senate is currently made up of only Republicans and Democrats. The Democrats have a five seat majority, meaning that the GOP must win three seats in order to take control of the chamber in 2009.
The Class 2 seats currently are made up of 8 Republicans and 9 Democrats. Of the Class 1 seats up for election during this cycle 14 of the seats are not competitive. Below we list the Senate Districts based upon their “partisan differential.” The P-Diff as we call it is basically either the Democratic or Republican Party’s registration advantage as a percentage.
Before we begin with a look at each Senate District in particular, let’s just do a quick macro view of the political landscape in Colorado. In 2004 the Democratic Party took control of the State Legislature for the first time in forty years. Colorado has moderated greatly since the beginning of Bush 41’s Presidency. All things being equal you would expect that if the registration between the two parties is equal, i.e. the P-Diff is 0, than each party would have an equal chance of winning the district. Today that is not true in Colorado. The “horizon” as we call it is currently somewhere out near R +7. That means that demographically, districts where the GOP has a 7% registration advantage are “toss ups.” As a matter of fact the GOP only holds one Senate District where they have less than a 9% registration advantage, SD 2 in southeast Colorado, which has a P Diff of R +2. Basically, the GOP has to slug it out in order to win districts where it holds single digit registration advantages, while Democrats easily skate to victory in comparable districts. As things stand right now, we only see four competitive districts this cycle, with each party having to defend two seats each. Since the GOP needs three seats to capture control of the Senate we put the probability of the GOP taking control of the Senate at 1%.
Our current projection is Democratic control: R 13-16 D 19-22
Here is a look at the four most competitive districts:
SD 19:
Open. P-Diff R +5.5. Westminster. Formerly held by Sue Windels (D) for eight years.
SD 23:
Open. P-Diff R +9. Broomfield. Shawn Mitchell (R) Running for re-election.
SD 8:
Open. P-Diff R +9. Northwestern Colorado. Formerly held by Jack Taylor (R) for eight years.
SD 14:
Incumbent Bob Bacon (D) is running for re-election. P-Diff R+2.5. Fort Collins.
Update 03/31/2008: This projection is very preliminary, we still have some more research to do and we need to mine a little more data, but if the election were held today the Colorado State Senate could switch control, even though it looks very unlikely. Our range shows that the Senate could go from a five seat Democratic majority to a two seat Republican majority. Most likely, the GOP may pick up one seat.
Saturday, February 23, 2008
US Senate Projection 2008
Update September 02, 2008. D-56 R-44
Update July 22, 2008 D-57 R-43
Update July 11, 2008 D-57 R-43
Update June 24, 2008 D-57 R-43
Update June 20, 2008 D-57 R-43
Update June 1, 2008 D-57 R-43
Update April 30, 2008 D-56 R-44
Elite Eight
Politics Nation Top Ten US Senate Races.
Update March 27, 2008. D-54 R-46
Update March 8, 2008. D-55 R-45
Original Post:
As things stand right now Mile High Delphi is projecting that the Democrats will pick up 4-5 seats in the US Senate.
Here is a look at the races in which we project Democratic gains.
New Hampshire is a state that is quickly changing from Republican to Democrat. Republican Senator John Sununu barely beat former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen six years ago, 51 to 46 percent. During the 2006 midterm elections both Republican congressmen lost their reelection campaigns. Look for the Democrats to continue their gains in New Hampshire.
Virginia is traveling down the same path as New Hampshire, albeit at a much more moderate pace. What was once a reliable Republican state has become a competitive battlefield for the GOP. Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner is certainly the favorite against Republican former Governor Jim Gilmore.
Colorado is another one of those moderating red states. While Democratic Presidential nominees have a hard time winning in Colorado, the state's congressional delegation has swung from seven Republicans (including both Senators) and two Democrats to five Democrats and four Republicans. The State Legislature, after basically forty years of Republican control has now swung to large Democrat majorities. The Democratic Governor Bill Ritter is popular. Democratic Congressman Mark Udall looks poised to take Republican Senator Wayne Allard's open Senate seat. The GOP has nominated former congressman Bob Schaffer. Schaffer represents the most conservative elements of a party that has lost touch with the Centennial State.
New Mexico is trending Democrat, but barely. The retirement of Republican Senator Pete Domenici has created a situation where the entire House delegation has thrown their hats into the ring. As things stand right now Democratic congressman Tom Udall looks like the most likely winner.
Minnesota is a toss-up. Moderate Republican Norm Coleman is still waiting to see if he will face Comedian Al Franken or Mike Ceresi.
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Electoral vote projection 2008.
Intrade Futures for McCain winning.
September 16, 2008 Update. D 273 R 265
September 9, 2008 Update. D 273 R 265
September 1, 2008 Update. D 293 R 245
August 6, 2008 Update. D 311 R 227
July 27, 2008 Update. D 311 R 227
July 18, 2008 Update. D 322 R 216
July 08, 2008 Update. D 322 R 216
June 24, 2008 Update. D 322 R 216
June 18, 2008 Update. D 306 R 204.
April 28, 2008 Update. D 234 R 240 Toss Up 64.
Dirty Dozen Most Competitive States.
April 13, 2008 Update. D 259 R 240 Toss up 39.
March 28, 2008 Update. D 284 R 216 Toss up 38 No change from last update.
March 8, 2008 Update. D 284 R 216 Toss up 38 Democrats lost 52 electoral votes from last update. Republicans gained 14 electoral votes from last update. 38 electoral votes were moved into the toss up category.
Here is our first projection for the presidential election of 2008.
If the election was held today the Democrat would win with 336 electoral votes to the Republican 202.
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Getting ready for round three!
This election cycle will be MHD's third venture into the election projection business. Last cycle we did a great job, picking basically every election correctly (I think we missed a state house race).
Anyway, over the next few weeks you will see predictions coming up for the US Senate and House, Colorado Senate and House, district by district and the US Presidency.
We are going to break Colorado into six districts for the purposes of posting updates, northern and southern plains, northern and southern mountains and northern and southern Denver metro area. Basically I-70 will divide the state north and south with I-25 dividing the state east and west. The metro area will be divided by either Colfax or Alameda, depending on the work load.
Our preliminary picks for Colorado based races are as follows:
US Senate: Likely Dem
HD 1: Safe Dem
HD 2: Safe Dem
HD 3: Likely Dem
HD 4: Likely GOP
HD 5: Safe GOP
HD 6: Safe GOP
HD 7: Likely Dem
State House: Safe Dem
State Senate: Safe Dem
Look for some great maps and predictions in the next few weeks.
Anyway, over the next few weeks you will see predictions coming up for the US Senate and House, Colorado Senate and House, district by district and the US Presidency.
We are going to break Colorado into six districts for the purposes of posting updates, northern and southern plains, northern and southern mountains and northern and southern Denver metro area. Basically I-70 will divide the state north and south with I-25 dividing the state east and west. The metro area will be divided by either Colfax or Alameda, depending on the work load.
Our preliminary picks for Colorado based races are as follows:
US Senate: Likely Dem
HD 1: Safe Dem
HD 2: Safe Dem
HD 3: Likely Dem
HD 4: Likely GOP
HD 5: Safe GOP
HD 6: Safe GOP
HD 7: Likely Dem
State House: Safe Dem
State Senate: Safe Dem
Look for some great maps and predictions in the next few weeks.
Tuesday, December 05, 2006
Colorado Senate 2008
There already has been a few stories highlighting the coming battle for one of Colorado's two US Senate seats in 2008. Here is how the match is shaping up.
On the Republican side: If Colorado's current senior Senator, Wayne Allard, decides to run again he will not face any significant primary opposition. He has a tiny warchest, less than $125,000. The main action on the Republican side is to ensure that Allard does run again. If Allard decides not to run the primary will be wide open. Early names that have been mentioned are: Governor Bill Owens, former US Representative Scott McInnis (who still has about a million in his campaign account), former US Representative Bob Schaffer and current US Representative Tom Tancredo.
We give an early edge to Allard not running again and to Scott McInnis taking up the Republican flag.
On the Democratic side there is really only one name floating around: US Representative Mark Udall. We don't foresee any real primary competition against him.
Our early overall analysis: Colorado has been trending Democratic over the last four years. A new term has even been coined for these western Democratic voters: Liberaltarians. While Colorado voters have a tendency to split their tickets, we don't think that they will think to themselves "We already have one Democratic Senator, so I'll vote for a Republican." Cast this race as Leans Democrat.
On the Republican side: If Colorado's current senior Senator, Wayne Allard, decides to run again he will not face any significant primary opposition. He has a tiny warchest, less than $125,000. The main action on the Republican side is to ensure that Allard does run again. If Allard decides not to run the primary will be wide open. Early names that have been mentioned are: Governor Bill Owens, former US Representative Scott McInnis (who still has about a million in his campaign account), former US Representative Bob Schaffer and current US Representative Tom Tancredo.
We give an early edge to Allard not running again and to Scott McInnis taking up the Republican flag.
On the Democratic side there is really only one name floating around: US Representative Mark Udall. We don't foresee any real primary competition against him.
Our early overall analysis: Colorado has been trending Democratic over the last four years. A new term has even been coined for these western Democratic voters: Liberaltarians. While Colorado voters have a tendency to split their tickets, we don't think that they will think to themselves "We already have one Democratic Senator, so I'll vote for a Republican." Cast this race as Leans Democrat.
Thursday, November 09, 2006
Colorado Election Results.
Here is how Colorado's political landscape looks after the Democratic wave that swept the nation yesterday.
State wide the Democrats picked up two seats:
Bill Ritter won election as Colorado Governor.
Cary Kennedy won election as State Treasurer.
The Republicans kept two state wide seats:
John Suthers won election as AG.
Mike Coffman won election as Secretary of State.
We correctly predicted all of these races.
The Democrats picked up the 7th US House District (Northern Denver Suburbs).
The Democrats now control 4 out of 7 Congressional Districts in Colorado.
We correctly predicted all of those races.
The Democrats also increased their majorities in both houses of the State Legislature.
We correctly predicted every race for the State Senate.
We correctly predicted 59 out of 65 State House races.
Actually we are being hard on ourselves, we really only missed two races, but we thought that the GOP would split the toss-up races, they only won 2 out of 12.
One other thing. We called every US Senate race and we only missed the scope of the Democratic win, off by only about 5-7 seats. Not too bad.
On a state wide basis we easily achieved our hope for 95% accuracy.
Nationally, we kicked butt. A bad election for the Republicans. A good one for us.
Maybe next time we can get every single Colorado State House seat?
Stay tuned...in 2008 we have a Presidential Race and a US Senate race in Colorado. Nobody does anything like this, we're the one.
State wide the Democrats picked up two seats:
Bill Ritter won election as Colorado Governor.
Cary Kennedy won election as State Treasurer.
The Republicans kept two state wide seats:
John Suthers won election as AG.
Mike Coffman won election as Secretary of State.
We correctly predicted all of these races.
The Democrats picked up the 7th US House District (Northern Denver Suburbs).
The Democrats now control 4 out of 7 Congressional Districts in Colorado.
We correctly predicted all of those races.
The Democrats also increased their majorities in both houses of the State Legislature.
We correctly predicted every race for the State Senate.
We correctly predicted 59 out of 65 State House races.
Actually we are being hard on ourselves, we really only missed two races, but we thought that the GOP would split the toss-up races, they only won 2 out of 12.
One other thing. We called every US Senate race and we only missed the scope of the Democratic win, off by only about 5-7 seats. Not too bad.
On a state wide basis we easily achieved our hope for 95% accuracy.
Nationally, we kicked butt. A bad election for the Republicans. A good one for us.
Maybe next time we can get every single Colorado State House seat?
Stay tuned...in 2008 we have a Presidential Race and a US Senate race in Colorado. Nobody does anything like this, we're the one.
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
Top of the Ticket Results:
Governor: Bill Ritter (D)
Sec. of State: Mike Coffman (R)
Treasurer: Too Close To Call Hillman (R) Leads by 5K votes.
Attorney General: John Suthers (R)
Congressional Seats:
CO-1 (Denver) DeGette (D)
CO-2 (Boulder) Udall (D)
CO-3 (Western Slope) Salazar (D)
CO-4 (Eastern Plains) Too Close To Call Musgrave (R) Leading by 7K votes.
CO-5 (Colorado Springs) Lamborn (R)
CO-6 (Southern Denver Suburbs) Tancredo (R)
CO-7 (Northern Denver Suburbs) Perlmutter (D)
Projected Makeup D-4 R-3
Sec. of State: Mike Coffman (R)
Treasurer: Too Close To Call Hillman (R) Leads by 5K votes.
Attorney General: John Suthers (R)
Congressional Seats:
CO-1 (Denver) DeGette (D)
CO-2 (Boulder) Udall (D)
CO-3 (Western Slope) Salazar (D)
CO-4 (Eastern Plains) Too Close To Call Musgrave (R) Leading by 7K votes.
CO-5 (Colorado Springs) Lamborn (R)
CO-6 (Southern Denver Suburbs) Tancredo (R)
CO-7 (Northern Denver Suburbs) Perlmutter (D)
Projected Makeup D-4 R-3
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
State House Results:
33 needed for control: GOP 26 Dem 37 Too Close To Call 2
Incumbent = *
Tossups: 12
HD-17: Mark Cloer* (R) vs. Christine Varney (D) GOP Hold
HD-23: Ramey Johnson (R) vs. Gwen Green* (D) Dem Hold
HD-26: Andy Kerr* (D) vs. Glenn Rhoades (R) Dem Hold
HD-27: Bill Crane* (R) vs. Sara Gagliardi (D) Dem Pickup
HD-29: Debbie Benefield* (D) vs. Affie Ellis (R) Dem Hold
HD-33: Bill Berens* (R) vs. Dianne Primavera (D) Dem Pickup
HD-50: Dave Owen (R) vs. James Reisberg* (D) Dem Hold
HD-52: John Kefalas (D) vs. Bob McCluskey* (R) (Too Close To Call)
HD-53: Randy Fischer (D) vs. Anne Yeldell (R) Dem Hold
HD-55: Bernie Buescher* (D) vs. Bob Caskey (R) (Too Close To Call)
HD-56: Ken Chlouber (R) vs. Dan Gibbs (D) Dem Hold
HD-59: Joe Colgan (D) vs Ellen Roberts (R) GOP Hold
Leans/Likely Democrat: 8
HD-11: Jack Pommer* (D) vs. Catherine Jarrett (R) Dem Hold
HD-18: Michael Merrifield* (D) vs. Kyle Fisk (R) Dem Hold
HD-30: Darrin Dutcher (R) vs. Mary Hodge* (D) Dem Hold
HD-31: Rex Pierce (R) vs. Judy Solano* (D) Dem Hold
HD-36: Brian Boney (R) vs. Morgan Carroll* (D)Dem Hold
HD-41: Clyde Robinson (R) vs. Nancy Todd* (D)Dem Hold
HD-47: Liane "Buffie" McFadyen* (D) vs. Jeff Shaw (R)Dem Hold
HD-64: John Albright (R) vs. Wesley McKinley* (D) Dem Hold
Leans/Likely Republican: 15
HD-19: Kenneth Barela (D) vs. Marsha Looper (R) GOP Hold
HD-22: Jayson Haberkorn (D) vs. Kenneth Summers (R)GOP Hold
HD-25: Rob Witwer* (R) vs. Michael Daniels (D)GOP Hold
HD-28: James Kerr* (R) vs. Thomas Dittemore (D)GOP Hold
HD-37: Angela Engel (D) vs. Spencer Swalm (R) GOP Hold
HD-38: Matt Dunn (R) vs. Joe Rice (D)Dem Pickup
HD-39: David Balmer* (R) vs. Mollie Cullom (D) GOP Hold
HD-40: Debbie Stafford* (R) vs. Matt Bryant (D) GOP Hold
HD-48: Michael Dugan (D) vs. Gleen Vaad (R) GOP Hold
HD-49: Kevin Lundberg* (R) vs Susan Radford (D) GOP Hold
HD-51: Don Marostica (R) vs. Jodi Radke (D)GOP Hold
HD-54: Richard Alward (D) vs. Steven King (R)GOP Hold
HD-57: Andrew Gold (D) vs. Al White* (R) GOP Hold
HD-58: Brian Ahern (D) vs. Ray Rose* (R) GOP Hold
HD-60: Curtis Imrie (D) vs. Tom Massey* (R)GOP Hold
Safe Democrat: 20
HD-1: Jeanne Labuda (D) vs. Aimee Rathburn (R) Dem Hold
HD-2: Mike Cerbo* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-3: Anne McGihon* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-4: Jerry Frangas* (D) vs. Rick Nevin (R) Dem Hold
HD-5: Joel Judd* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-6: Andrew Romanoff* (D) vs. Jeffrey Hecht (R) Dem Hold
HD-7: Terrance Carroll* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-8: Rosemary Marshall* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-9: Alice Borodkin* (D) vs. Jerry Greenheck (R)Dem Hold
HD-10: Alice Madden* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-12: Paul Weissmann* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-13: Claire Levy (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-24: Cheri Jahn* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-32: Edward Casso (D) vs. Tracey Snyder (R)Dem Hold
HD-34: John Soper (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-35: Ruben Pacheco (R) vs. Cherylin Peniston (D)Dem Hold
HD-42: Michael Garcia (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-46: Dorothy Butcher (D) vs. Susan Pelto (R)Dem Hold
HD-61: Kathleen Curry (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-62: Rafael Gallegos* (D) vs. John Sandoval (R)Dem Hold
Safe Republican: 10
HD-14: Kent Lambert (R) vs. Karen Teja (D) GOP Hold
HD-15: Bill Cadman (R) vs. Allison Hunter (D) GOP Hold
HD-16: Larry Liston* (R) unopposed GOP Hold
HD-20: Amy Stephens (R) vs. Janet Hejtmaneck (D)GOP Hold
HD-21: Bob Gardner (R) vs. Anna Lord (D)GOP Hold
HD-43: Allen Dreher (D) vs. Frank McNulty (R)GOP Hold
HD-44: Lois Huff (D) vs. Mike May* (R) GOP Hold
HD-45: Linda Constantine (D) vs. Victor Mitchell (R)GOP Hold
HD-63: Pauline Artery (D) vs. Cory Gardner* (R) GOP Hold
HD-65: Jerry Sonnenberg (R) unopposed GOP Hold
The Democrats have won Control of the Colorado State House.
They also beat our projection, they picked up another Leans GOP seat (HD-38) with Iraq war vet. Joe Rice. It looks like they will keep their other Leans GOP seat (HD-55), Rep. Buescher leads by 2222 votes with 60% of the vote in. The other TCTC race (HD-53) is also a likely Dem. It just doesn't have enough votes counted yet.
Unlike in past years where the GOP has held its own in districts with narrow GOP majorities, the Democrats nearly ran the table. We predicted that they would win 6 of our 12 Toss Ups. But the Democratic wave was too high, the GOP only held 2 of those 12 seats, about 16%. That messes up our projection, the Democrats outperformed our model by 5 seats.
Congratulations Colorado Democrats. Now lets see what the "Colorado Promise" looks like.
Incumbent = *
Tossups: 12
HD-17: Mark Cloer* (R) vs. Christine Varney (D) GOP Hold
HD-23: Ramey Johnson (R) vs. Gwen Green* (D) Dem Hold
HD-26: Andy Kerr* (D) vs. Glenn Rhoades (R) Dem Hold
HD-27: Bill Crane* (R) vs. Sara Gagliardi (D) Dem Pickup
HD-29: Debbie Benefield* (D) vs. Affie Ellis (R) Dem Hold
HD-33: Bill Berens* (R) vs. Dianne Primavera (D) Dem Pickup
HD-50: Dave Owen (R) vs. James Reisberg* (D) Dem Hold
HD-52: John Kefalas (D) vs. Bob McCluskey* (R) (Too Close To Call)
HD-53: Randy Fischer (D) vs. Anne Yeldell (R) Dem Hold
HD-55: Bernie Buescher* (D) vs. Bob Caskey (R) (Too Close To Call)
HD-56: Ken Chlouber (R) vs. Dan Gibbs (D) Dem Hold
HD-59: Joe Colgan (D) vs Ellen Roberts (R) GOP Hold
Leans/Likely Democrat: 8
HD-11: Jack Pommer* (D) vs. Catherine Jarrett (R) Dem Hold
HD-18: Michael Merrifield* (D) vs. Kyle Fisk (R) Dem Hold
HD-30: Darrin Dutcher (R) vs. Mary Hodge* (D) Dem Hold
HD-31: Rex Pierce (R) vs. Judy Solano* (D) Dem Hold
HD-36: Brian Boney (R) vs. Morgan Carroll* (D)Dem Hold
HD-41: Clyde Robinson (R) vs. Nancy Todd* (D)Dem Hold
HD-47: Liane "Buffie" McFadyen* (D) vs. Jeff Shaw (R)Dem Hold
HD-64: John Albright (R) vs. Wesley McKinley* (D) Dem Hold
Leans/Likely Republican: 15
HD-19: Kenneth Barela (D) vs. Marsha Looper (R) GOP Hold
HD-22: Jayson Haberkorn (D) vs. Kenneth Summers (R)GOP Hold
HD-25: Rob Witwer* (R) vs. Michael Daniels (D)GOP Hold
HD-28: James Kerr* (R) vs. Thomas Dittemore (D)GOP Hold
HD-37: Angela Engel (D) vs. Spencer Swalm (R) GOP Hold
HD-38: Matt Dunn (R) vs. Joe Rice (D)Dem Pickup
HD-39: David Balmer* (R) vs. Mollie Cullom (D) GOP Hold
HD-40: Debbie Stafford* (R) vs. Matt Bryant (D) GOP Hold
HD-48: Michael Dugan (D) vs. Gleen Vaad (R) GOP Hold
HD-49: Kevin Lundberg* (R) vs Susan Radford (D) GOP Hold
HD-51: Don Marostica (R) vs. Jodi Radke (D)GOP Hold
HD-54: Richard Alward (D) vs. Steven King (R)GOP Hold
HD-57: Andrew Gold (D) vs. Al White* (R) GOP Hold
HD-58: Brian Ahern (D) vs. Ray Rose* (R) GOP Hold
HD-60: Curtis Imrie (D) vs. Tom Massey* (R)GOP Hold
Safe Democrat: 20
HD-1: Jeanne Labuda (D) vs. Aimee Rathburn (R) Dem Hold
HD-2: Mike Cerbo* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-3: Anne McGihon* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-4: Jerry Frangas* (D) vs. Rick Nevin (R) Dem Hold
HD-5: Joel Judd* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-6: Andrew Romanoff* (D) vs. Jeffrey Hecht (R) Dem Hold
HD-7: Terrance Carroll* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-8: Rosemary Marshall* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-9: Alice Borodkin* (D) vs. Jerry Greenheck (R)Dem Hold
HD-10: Alice Madden* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-12: Paul Weissmann* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-13: Claire Levy (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-24: Cheri Jahn* (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-32: Edward Casso (D) vs. Tracey Snyder (R)Dem Hold
HD-34: John Soper (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-35: Ruben Pacheco (R) vs. Cherylin Peniston (D)Dem Hold
HD-42: Michael Garcia (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-46: Dorothy Butcher (D) vs. Susan Pelto (R)Dem Hold
HD-61: Kathleen Curry (D) unopposed Dem Hold
HD-62: Rafael Gallegos* (D) vs. John Sandoval (R)Dem Hold
Safe Republican: 10
HD-14: Kent Lambert (R) vs. Karen Teja (D) GOP Hold
HD-15: Bill Cadman (R) vs. Allison Hunter (D) GOP Hold
HD-16: Larry Liston* (R) unopposed GOP Hold
HD-20: Amy Stephens (R) vs. Janet Hejtmaneck (D)GOP Hold
HD-21: Bob Gardner (R) vs. Anna Lord (D)GOP Hold
HD-43: Allen Dreher (D) vs. Frank McNulty (R)GOP Hold
HD-44: Lois Huff (D) vs. Mike May* (R) GOP Hold
HD-45: Linda Constantine (D) vs. Victor Mitchell (R)GOP Hold
HD-63: Pauline Artery (D) vs. Cory Gardner* (R) GOP Hold
HD-65: Jerry Sonnenberg (R) unopposed GOP Hold
The Democrats have won Control of the Colorado State House.
They also beat our projection, they picked up another Leans GOP seat (HD-38) with Iraq war vet. Joe Rice. It looks like they will keep their other Leans GOP seat (HD-55), Rep. Buescher leads by 2222 votes with 60% of the vote in. The other TCTC race (HD-53) is also a likely Dem. It just doesn't have enough votes counted yet.
Unlike in past years where the GOP has held its own in districts with narrow GOP majorities, the Democrats nearly ran the table. We predicted that they would win 6 of our 12 Toss Ups. But the Democratic wave was too high, the GOP only held 2 of those 12 seats, about 16%. That messes up our projection, the Democrats outperformed our model by 5 seats.
Congratulations Colorado Democrats. Now lets see what the "Colorado Promise" looks like.
State Senate Results:
18 needed for control: D-19 R-15 Too Close To Call-1
Incumbent = *
Tossups:
SD-2:Michael Griego (D) vs. Kenneth Kester* (R) GOP Hold
SD-22:Mike Kopp (R) vs. Paula Noonan (D) GOP Hold
Leans/Likely Democrat:
SD-5:Lewis Entz* (R) vs. Gail Schwartz (D)Too Close To Call
As of 1:15 Schwartz up by 584 votes.
SD-11:Ed Jones* (R) vs. John Morse (D) Democrat Pickup
SD-21:Berry Boyd* (D) vs. Matt Knoedler (R) Democrat Hold
SD-6:Jim Isgar* (D) vs. Ronald Tate (R)Democrat Hold
SD-16:Joan Fitz-Gerald* (D) vs. Marty Neilson (R) Democrat Hold
SD-24:Luis Alvarez (R) vs. Lois Tochtrop* (D) Democrat Hold
SD-20:Maryanne "Moe" Keller* (D) vs. Dick Sargent (R) Democrat Hold
Leans/Likely Republican:
SD-13:Solomon Little Owl (D) vs. Scott Renfroe (R) Republican Hold
SD-07:Dana Barker (D) vs. Joshua Penry (R) Republican Hold
SD-15:Steve Johnson* (R) vs. Jennifer Miller (D) Republican Hold
Safe Democrat:
SD-3:Abel Tapia* (D) unopposed
SD-32:Dave Lewis (R) vs. Chris Romer (D) Democrat Hold
SD-34:Paula Sandoval (D) unopposed
Safe Republican:
SD-1:James Bowen (D) vs. Greg Brophy* (R) GOP Hold
SD-9:Keely Marrs (D) vs. David Schultheis (R) GOP Hold
SD-30:Ted Harvey (R) vs. Shelly Tokerud (D) GOP Hold
Democrats have won Control of the Colorado State Senate.
Incumbent = *
Tossups:
SD-2:Michael Griego (D) vs. Kenneth Kester* (R) GOP Hold
SD-22:Mike Kopp (R) vs. Paula Noonan (D) GOP Hold
Leans/Likely Democrat:
SD-5:Lewis Entz* (R) vs. Gail Schwartz (D)Too Close To Call
As of 1:15 Schwartz up by 584 votes.
SD-11:Ed Jones* (R) vs. John Morse (D) Democrat Pickup
SD-21:Berry Boyd* (D) vs. Matt Knoedler (R) Democrat Hold
SD-6:Jim Isgar* (D) vs. Ronald Tate (R)Democrat Hold
SD-16:Joan Fitz-Gerald* (D) vs. Marty Neilson (R) Democrat Hold
SD-24:Luis Alvarez (R) vs. Lois Tochtrop* (D) Democrat Hold
SD-20:Maryanne "Moe" Keller* (D) vs. Dick Sargent (R) Democrat Hold
Leans/Likely Republican:
SD-13:Solomon Little Owl (D) vs. Scott Renfroe (R) Republican Hold
SD-07:Dana Barker (D) vs. Joshua Penry (R) Republican Hold
SD-15:Steve Johnson* (R) vs. Jennifer Miller (D) Republican Hold
Safe Democrat:
SD-3:Abel Tapia* (D) unopposed
SD-32:Dave Lewis (R) vs. Chris Romer (D) Democrat Hold
SD-34:Paula Sandoval (D) unopposed
Safe Republican:
SD-1:James Bowen (D) vs. Greg Brophy* (R) GOP Hold
SD-9:Keely Marrs (D) vs. David Schultheis (R) GOP Hold
SD-30:Ted Harvey (R) vs. Shelly Tokerud (D) GOP Hold
Democrats have won Control of the Colorado State Senate.
Results.
Here are some results:
As of 8:23 The Rocky Mountain News has called Bill Ritter (D) the winner for Colorado's Governor.
It appears that Absentee Ballots have been counted first. From the looks of this the Colorado GOP may lose several more State House seats and at least three State Senate seats.
Early Numbers: as of 8:40.
SD-5 (Central Mountains) R-60 D-40 Republican Hold
SD-11 (Colorado Springs) R-40 D-60 Democrat Pickup
SD-21 (Lakewood) R-43.5 D-56.5 Democrat Hold
SD-22 (South-West Suburbs) R-52 D-48 This Doesn't look good for Kopp.
HD-23 (North Lakewood) R-45 D-55 Democrat Hold
HD-27 (Jefferson County) R-49 D-51 This Doesn't look good for Crane. Dem Pickup?
HD-29 (Westminister) R-47 D-53 Democrat Hold
HD-33 (Broomfield) R-44 D-56 Democrat Pickup
HD-38 (Arapahoe County) R-48 D-52 Democrat Pickup (in a GOP Seat)
State House
HD-55: We had this race listed as leans GOP.
Currently it is 56.5% for Democrat Bernie Buescher, 43.5% for Republican Bob Caskey. 30% Reporting as of 8:00.
State-Wide
Governor: We had this race listed as Likely Dem.
Curretly it is Bill Ritter (D) 57.5% and Bob Beauprez (R) with 39.5%.
Less than 1% Reporting as of 8:15.
State Treasurer: We had this race listed as leans Dem.
Currently it is 50.6% for Democrat Cary Kennedy, 49.4% for Republican Mark Hillman. Less than 1% Reporting as of 8:00.
Secretary of State: We had this race listed as Toss Up.
Currently it is 46.5% for Democrat Ken Gordon, 53.5% for Republican Mike Coffman. Less than 1% Reporting as of 8:10.
Attorney General: We had this race listed as Likely GOP.
Currently it is 42.9% for Democrat Fern O'Brien, 53.8% for Republican John Suthers. Less than 1% Reporting as of 8:10.
As of 8:23 The Rocky Mountain News has called Bill Ritter (D) the winner for Colorado's Governor.
It appears that Absentee Ballots have been counted first. From the looks of this the Colorado GOP may lose several more State House seats and at least three State Senate seats.
Early Numbers: as of 8:40.
SD-5 (Central Mountains) R-60 D-40 Republican Hold
SD-11 (Colorado Springs) R-40 D-60 Democrat Pickup
SD-21 (Lakewood) R-43.5 D-56.5 Democrat Hold
SD-22 (South-West Suburbs) R-52 D-48 This Doesn't look good for Kopp.
HD-23 (North Lakewood) R-45 D-55 Democrat Hold
HD-27 (Jefferson County) R-49 D-51 This Doesn't look good for Crane. Dem Pickup?
HD-29 (Westminister) R-47 D-53 Democrat Hold
HD-33 (Broomfield) R-44 D-56 Democrat Pickup
HD-38 (Arapahoe County) R-48 D-52 Democrat Pickup (in a GOP Seat)
State House
HD-55: We had this race listed as leans GOP.
Currently it is 56.5% for Democrat Bernie Buescher, 43.5% for Republican Bob Caskey. 30% Reporting as of 8:00.
State-Wide
Governor: We had this race listed as Likely Dem.
Curretly it is Bill Ritter (D) 57.5% and Bob Beauprez (R) with 39.5%.
Less than 1% Reporting as of 8:15.
State Treasurer: We had this race listed as leans Dem.
Currently it is 50.6% for Democrat Cary Kennedy, 49.4% for Republican Mark Hillman. Less than 1% Reporting as of 8:00.
Secretary of State: We had this race listed as Toss Up.
Currently it is 46.5% for Democrat Ken Gordon, 53.5% for Republican Mike Coffman. Less than 1% Reporting as of 8:10.
Attorney General: We had this race listed as Likely GOP.
Currently it is 42.9% for Democrat Fern O'Brien, 53.8% for Republican John Suthers. Less than 1% Reporting as of 8:10.
Final Projections 2006
Federal:
US Senate: D-51 R-49 Net D + 6
US House: D-220 R-215 Net D + 20-24
Some other sites of note:
Senate Projections:
Pollster R 49-53 D 47-51
Tradesports.com GOP control about 70%
Real Clear Politics D-51 R-49 Net D + 6
House Projections:
Tradesports.com House Dem Pickup Predicts D + 20-25
Tradesports.com GOP control about 15%
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Majority Watch D-241 R-194 Net D + 39
Real Clear Politics D-220 R-215 Net D + 18
Colorado Congressional Delegation:
US Senate: No election. Senior Senator Wayne Allard (R) Junior Senator Ken Salazar (D)
US House: Races listed by competitiveness.
CO-7:
It looked like this race was tightening up in Mid October, but recent pulling shows Democrat Ed Perlmutter pulling away from Republican Rick O'Donnell. Our average of the last three polls (from Real Clear Politics) shows Perlmutter winning 50.6% to 43.6%. We looked at past polls (Polling Report via Colorado Media Matters) and found that the polling average in 2002 was R-40.6 D-39.6, and the final results were 47-47. In 2004 the polling average was R-44.3 D-41.3 and the final result was R-55 D-43. All we can say is that the pollsters don't do very well at guessing the final results (in 04 no one saw Beauprez polling any higher than 46% in the final three polls) but the average of the last three polls has predicted the winner the last two times.
As it looks right now, Perlmutter will be the next Representative from Colorado's 7th CD. Keep it as Leans Dem.
(Originally posted Oct 25th)
The race for Bob Beauprez's open Congress seat is really the best race in Colorado. Real Clear Politics has this race listed as Leans Democrat. We agree. There is just too great a political headwind for Rick O'Donnell (R) to overcome as of right now. However, if you look at the poll numbers you can see that Ed Perlmutter's (D) lead in the polls has decreased from about 10% in September to 5.7% today. The most recent RD Strategies poll has the race tied at 47-47. Word on the political grapevine is that internal Perlmutter polling has the race tied also. This race is shaping up to be another down to the wire repeat of 2002, where Beauprez beat Mike Feely by 121 votes. We are very close to moving this race to Toss Up if we see a few more close polls and the polling average goes down below 5%.
CO-4:
This race has tightened up in the last few days. Our polling average has Paccione (D) head of Musgrave 45.3% to 43.6%. This is not a good place for Musgrave. The Reform party candidate has gotten the endorsement of several newspapers in the district, so it is becoming increasingly likely that he may be a spoiler. We still think that Musgrave is the favorite, but not by much. We have moved this race to Leans GOP and it may become a toss-up or Leans Dem by November 7th. If the Democrats take more than 30 seats in this election, Musgrave is toast.
(Original Post Oct 25th)
Marilyn Musgrave (R) will beat Angie Paccione (D). Every year a handful of Democratic Billionaires throw millions into beating Musgrave. Paccione, with her bankruptcy's intimate details splashed across the airwaves isn't the candidate to do it. Real Clear Politics has this race listed as #28 on their House List. Musgrave's impressive polling numbers have us listing this race as Likely GOP. Note to the Billionaires, find a Salazar or a Ritter and you can win this seat, make sure they don't have bounced checks for pizza listed in a bankruptcy.
CO-5: The newspapers have wasted a great deal of ink on this race. Lamborn (R) has pulled into a double digit lead over his Democratic opponent. This race is over. List it as Safe GOP.
No other changes in the other Colorado House Seats. Degette (D) will win in CO-1. Udall (D) will win in CO-2. Salazar (D) will win in CO-3. Tancredo (R) will win in CO-6.
Colorado:
All incumbents marked with *.
Governor: (Open) Beauprez (R) vs. Ritter (D)
Outlook: Likely Dem.
Downlow: Beauprez, the former congressman from CO-7 hasn't been able to pull within 10 points of Democratic former Denver DA Bill Ritter for what seems like forever. There is too strong a national headwind against Republican's, his campaign now is focused on preventing a complete Democratic sweep in Colorado. Beauprez has, at best, less than a 5% chance of winning. Look at the Real Clear Politics page on the Colorado Gubernatorial race for more data.
Secretary of State: (Open) Mike Coffman (R) vs. Ken Gordon (D)
Outlook: Toss Up.
Downlow:
Mike Coffman served as State Treasurer until he left to serve in Iraq's Al Anbar province during the last election (in Iraq). He is an Officer in the Marines.
Ken Gordon is an Democratic State Senator from Denver. He has excellent credentials and has been a beacon of bipartisanship in the State Senate.
With polling numbers showing this race as tied, we can't predict how the undecideds will break. Gordon has some commercials out on the TV, none are negative. To give you an idea how hard it is for Republicans in Colorado, Coffman's Iraqi war service is being described by some as "cashing in." It is reprehensible, and those individuals will go the way of John Kerry, but not this year.
State Treasurer: Mark Hillman* (R) vs. Cary Kennedy (D)
Outlook: Leans Dem.
Downlow:
(Update 11/7/06)
Recent polling shows Kennedy (D) with a high single digit lead over Hillman. She has TV spots up and has spent loads of money.
(Update 11/04/06)
The tone of this race has changed dramatically in the last few days. Incumbent Mark Hillman is not a veteran of any state-wide elections. Cary Kennedy is a Democratic darling. Her work on Amendment 23 (School Funding Autopilot) has made her more of a lightning rod than we could have predicted. Polling in this race is also stuck at basically a tie with undecideds at about 20%. It all depends on how they break, which may all depend on Beauprez.
Attorney General: Fern O'Brien (D) vs. John Suthers* (R)
Outlook: Leans Republican
Downlow:
This is the one bright race that the GOP has. Fern can't raise money and the incumbent looks set to easily defeat her. We did have it listed as Safe GOP, but no Republican is safe this year.
State Senate:
Outlook: R-15 D-20
Downlow: We just can't see how Matt Knoedler (R) can pick up SD-21 (Lakewood) against veteran campaigner Betty Boyd (D). Even during good GOP years Boyd has outperformed what our models say she should do. This year she has outraised him $150,000 to $63,000. Incumbent Lewis Entz (R) SD-5 (Central Mountains) looks like a loser against Gail Schwartz (D). Entz is a moderate, but when it comes to raw politics, that doesn't matter, Democrats are pouring money into this race. We also see Incumbent Ed Jones SD-11 (R) losing a marginal seat in Colorado Springs. In 2002 he won with a registration advantage of 7% for the GOP. He spent $365,000, matching Mariano almost dollar for dollar. Also, Norma Anderson's old district may be up for grabs. Her hand chosen successor, Kiki Traylor lost a bitter primary to Mike Kopp. Paula Noonan looks to outspend Kopp 2-1 or 3-1 as of right now (70K to well over 200K). As we forecast it now. The GOP will be lucky to come out of this with 15 seats.
State House:
Outlook: R-31 D-34
Downlow: Even in a bad GOP year like 2004, the Colorado GOP still won 5 out of 9 seats that our model predicted as toss ups. This year looks really bad for the GOP, but since they see the writing on the wall we think that they can win half of our 12 predicted toss ups. Basically we are forecasting a wash except that the GOP should pick up HD-57. Our model puts that seat at an 81% probability of going Republican.
US Senate: D-51 R-49 Net D + 6
US House: D-220 R-215 Net D + 20-24
Some other sites of note:
Senate Projections:
Pollster R 49-53 D 47-51
Tradesports.com GOP control about 70%
Real Clear Politics D-51 R-49 Net D + 6
House Projections:
Tradesports.com House Dem Pickup Predicts D + 20-25
Tradesports.com GOP control about 15%
Sabato's Crystal Ball
Majority Watch D-241 R-194 Net D + 39
Real Clear Politics D-220 R-215 Net D + 18
Colorado Congressional Delegation:
US Senate: No election. Senior Senator Wayne Allard (R) Junior Senator Ken Salazar (D)
US House: Races listed by competitiveness.
CO-7:
It looked like this race was tightening up in Mid October, but recent pulling shows Democrat Ed Perlmutter pulling away from Republican Rick O'Donnell. Our average of the last three polls (from Real Clear Politics) shows Perlmutter winning 50.6% to 43.6%. We looked at past polls (Polling Report via Colorado Media Matters) and found that the polling average in 2002 was R-40.6 D-39.6, and the final results were 47-47. In 2004 the polling average was R-44.3 D-41.3 and the final result was R-55 D-43. All we can say is that the pollsters don't do very well at guessing the final results (in 04 no one saw Beauprez polling any higher than 46% in the final three polls) but the average of the last three polls has predicted the winner the last two times.
As it looks right now, Perlmutter will be the next Representative from Colorado's 7th CD. Keep it as Leans Dem.
(Originally posted Oct 25th)
The race for Bob Beauprez's open Congress seat is really the best race in Colorado. Real Clear Politics has this race listed as Leans Democrat. We agree. There is just too great a political headwind for Rick O'Donnell (R) to overcome as of right now. However, if you look at the poll numbers you can see that Ed Perlmutter's (D) lead in the polls has decreased from about 10% in September to 5.7% today. The most recent RD Strategies poll has the race tied at 47-47. Word on the political grapevine is that internal Perlmutter polling has the race tied also. This race is shaping up to be another down to the wire repeat of 2002, where Beauprez beat Mike Feely by 121 votes. We are very close to moving this race to Toss Up if we see a few more close polls and the polling average goes down below 5%.
CO-4:
This race has tightened up in the last few days. Our polling average has Paccione (D) head of Musgrave 45.3% to 43.6%. This is not a good place for Musgrave. The Reform party candidate has gotten the endorsement of several newspapers in the district, so it is becoming increasingly likely that he may be a spoiler. We still think that Musgrave is the favorite, but not by much. We have moved this race to Leans GOP and it may become a toss-up or Leans Dem by November 7th. If the Democrats take more than 30 seats in this election, Musgrave is toast.
(Original Post Oct 25th)
Marilyn Musgrave (R) will beat Angie Paccione (D). Every year a handful of Democratic Billionaires throw millions into beating Musgrave. Paccione, with her bankruptcy's intimate details splashed across the airwaves isn't the candidate to do it. Real Clear Politics has this race listed as #28 on their House List. Musgrave's impressive polling numbers have us listing this race as Likely GOP. Note to the Billionaires, find a Salazar or a Ritter and you can win this seat, make sure they don't have bounced checks for pizza listed in a bankruptcy.
CO-5: The newspapers have wasted a great deal of ink on this race. Lamborn (R) has pulled into a double digit lead over his Democratic opponent. This race is over. List it as Safe GOP.
No other changes in the other Colorado House Seats. Degette (D) will win in CO-1. Udall (D) will win in CO-2. Salazar (D) will win in CO-3. Tancredo (R) will win in CO-6.
Colorado:
All incumbents marked with *.
Governor: (Open) Beauprez (R) vs. Ritter (D)
Outlook: Likely Dem.
Downlow: Beauprez, the former congressman from CO-7 hasn't been able to pull within 10 points of Democratic former Denver DA Bill Ritter for what seems like forever. There is too strong a national headwind against Republican's, his campaign now is focused on preventing a complete Democratic sweep in Colorado. Beauprez has, at best, less than a 5% chance of winning. Look at the Real Clear Politics page on the Colorado Gubernatorial race for more data.
Secretary of State: (Open) Mike Coffman (R) vs. Ken Gordon (D)
Outlook: Toss Up.
Downlow:
Mike Coffman served as State Treasurer until he left to serve in Iraq's Al Anbar province during the last election (in Iraq). He is an Officer in the Marines.
Ken Gordon is an Democratic State Senator from Denver. He has excellent credentials and has been a beacon of bipartisanship in the State Senate.
With polling numbers showing this race as tied, we can't predict how the undecideds will break. Gordon has some commercials out on the TV, none are negative. To give you an idea how hard it is for Republicans in Colorado, Coffman's Iraqi war service is being described by some as "cashing in." It is reprehensible, and those individuals will go the way of John Kerry, but not this year.
State Treasurer: Mark Hillman* (R) vs. Cary Kennedy (D)
Outlook: Leans Dem.
Downlow:
(Update 11/7/06)
Recent polling shows Kennedy (D) with a high single digit lead over Hillman. She has TV spots up and has spent loads of money.
(Update 11/04/06)
The tone of this race has changed dramatically in the last few days. Incumbent Mark Hillman is not a veteran of any state-wide elections. Cary Kennedy is a Democratic darling. Her work on Amendment 23 (School Funding Autopilot) has made her more of a lightning rod than we could have predicted. Polling in this race is also stuck at basically a tie with undecideds at about 20%. It all depends on how they break, which may all depend on Beauprez.
Attorney General: Fern O'Brien (D) vs. John Suthers* (R)
Outlook: Leans Republican
Downlow:
This is the one bright race that the GOP has. Fern can't raise money and the incumbent looks set to easily defeat her. We did have it listed as Safe GOP, but no Republican is safe this year.
State Senate:
Outlook: R-15 D-20
Downlow: We just can't see how Matt Knoedler (R) can pick up SD-21 (Lakewood) against veteran campaigner Betty Boyd (D). Even during good GOP years Boyd has outperformed what our models say she should do. This year she has outraised him $150,000 to $63,000. Incumbent Lewis Entz (R) SD-5 (Central Mountains) looks like a loser against Gail Schwartz (D). Entz is a moderate, but when it comes to raw politics, that doesn't matter, Democrats are pouring money into this race. We also see Incumbent Ed Jones SD-11 (R) losing a marginal seat in Colorado Springs. In 2002 he won with a registration advantage of 7% for the GOP. He spent $365,000, matching Mariano almost dollar for dollar. Also, Norma Anderson's old district may be up for grabs. Her hand chosen successor, Kiki Traylor lost a bitter primary to Mike Kopp. Paula Noonan looks to outspend Kopp 2-1 or 3-1 as of right now (70K to well over 200K). As we forecast it now. The GOP will be lucky to come out of this with 15 seats.
State House:
Outlook: R-31 D-34
Downlow: Even in a bad GOP year like 2004, the Colorado GOP still won 5 out of 9 seats that our model predicted as toss ups. This year looks really bad for the GOP, but since they see the writing on the wall we think that they can win half of our 12 predicted toss ups. Basically we are forecasting a wash except that the GOP should pick up HD-57. Our model puts that seat at an 81% probability of going Republican.
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